At FantasyLabs, we eat, breathe, and sleep football. So from September to February, we’re breaking down all facets of the game, looking for in-roads to the DFS and betting spaces. As part of our commitment to delivering outstanding football coverage, we’re monitoring player usage against fantasy impact to see which players are trending up and down.
It will be a long time before anyone replicates the success Joe Mixon achieved in Week 9 against the Carolina Panthers. Five touchdowns is no easy accomplishment, and Mixon almost single-handedly carried fantasy teams to victory on Sunday. Still, he won’t be able to replicate that success week after week, and some other noteworthy performers continue to be undervalued. Those are the players worth targeting as we get ready for Week 10.
As usual, we’re reconciling usage trends with actual fantasy output to see which superstars are trending up and which are regression candidates as we prepare for next week’s action.
NFL DFS Player Usage Trends
Austin Ekeler (RB, Los Angeles Chargers) – Week 9 Snap Count 47/69 (68.1%)
The Los Angeles Chargers have pivoted their offense, focusing more on the passing game this year, which negatively impacts Austin Ekeler’s usage.
Relative to years past, the sixth-year running back’s usage is on the decline. Ekeler played 68.1% of snaps against the Atlanta Falcons, his second-highest usage this season but a threshold he surpassed on eight occasions last year.
Nevertheless, even though he’s playing less, we’ve actually seen an increase in Ekeler’s fantasy output. Through eight games, Ekeler has the most scrimmage yards per game of his career, averaging 101.0 per game. That upward trend is likely to continue with injuries to several key players.
The Chargers are throwing the ball 65.4% of the time, the second-most in the NFL. Although that’s taking carries out of Ekeler’s hands, he’s been more involved in the passing game this season. With injuries to Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, Ekeler will continue to command a significant amount of targets against the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday night.
Kenneth Walker III (RB, Seattle Seahawks) – Week 9 Snap Count 56/73 (76.7%)
Few people expected the Seattle Seahawks to compete this year, and even fewer expected any substantive fantasy performers to emerge from the wreckage of a previous dynasty. Yet, here we are, approaching Week 10, and the Seahawks are in control of the NFC West.
Geno Smith is a steadying force under center, but as usual, the Seahawks’ commitment to the run game sets them apart. Injuries have contributed to Kenneth Walker III’s rise up the depth chart, and he’s earned a bigger piece of the pie with his recent performances.
Walker III played a career-best 56 snaps, or 76.7% of the offensive plays, in Week 9. That was the third time over the last four games in which he carried the ball at least 21 times and the second time in three games in which he scored multiple touchdowns.
Pete Carroll has an excellent track record of developing quality running backs, and Walker III is his latest protege. The rookie rusher continues to set himself apart and is worth investing in moving forward.
D.J Moore (WR, Carolina Panthers) – Week 9 Snap Count 47/48 (97.9%)
The hazard with wide receivers is their success is contingent on how well their quarterback plays. Unfortunately for D.J. Moore, he’s been languishing under the carousel that plagues the Carolina Panthers. But with Baker Mayfield putting forth a superb second-half effort in Week 9, Moore is a breakout candidate.
We’re just a couple of weeks removed from Moore’s monster 152-yard performance, and his usage and target share suggest that more elite efforts are on the horizon. The former first-round pick has sat out a meager four offensive plays over the previous four weeks, playing 100% of snaps in two of those contests. Moore’s also been targetted ten or more times twice over that stretch, totaling 34 targets, or 31.2% of passes.
Mayfield, albeit below average, is the Panthers’ best option under center. And that’s the key to unlocking Moore as a pre-eminent fantasy option.
Joshua Palmer (WR, Los Angeles Chargers) – Week 9 Snap Count 63/69 (91.3%)
We can’t talk about the Chargers’ evolving offense without bringing up Joshua Palmer. The second-year wideout has filled in admirably for Allen and Williams, and with no timetable for the return of his teammates, he should continue to prosper in Week 10.
Palmer has seen a substantial increase in workload over his recent outings, both in terms of snap count and target share. This past week, the 24-year-old has played 144 snaps over the past two games, the highest two-game stretch of his career. Further, he’s been targeted 22 times over that modest sample, representing 23.4% of Herbert’s pass attempts.
Although we’ve seen Palmer on the field more often than not this year, the increased workshare is essentially a consequence of Allen and Williams being unavailable. However, Williams’s high-ankle sprain was expected to take four weeks to resolve, which may be an ambitious target. At the same time, Allen has only played in two games this season, collecting six targets.
As such, we’re confident that Palmer’s fantasy ceiling remains in the upper echelon as he fortifies himself as a pillar in the Chargers’ offense.
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