At FantasyLabs, we eat, breathe, and sleep football. So from September to February, we’re breaking down all facets of the game, looking for in-roads to the DFS and betting spaces. As part of our commitment to delivering outstanding football coverage, we’re monitoring player usage against fantasy impact to see which players are trending up and down.
Offense has been harder to come by for some teams early this season. Five teams are averaging fewer than 300 yards per game, and 12 are scoring fewer than 20 points per game. It’s not unusual for offenses to need to warm-up time early in the season to start clicking, but we’re approaching the halfway point of the season and still getting sub-optimal results from many players. Identifying progression and regression candidates is even more vital as we build our DFS rosters weekly.
As usual, we’re reconciling usage trends with actual fantasy output to see which superstars are trending up and which are regression candidates as we prepare for next week’s action.
Melvin Gordon (RB, Denver Broncos) – Week 6 Snap Count 9/56 (16.1%)
If you tuned into Monday Night Football, you saw Melvin Gordon sulking on the sidelines. And rightfully so. After Javonte Williams went down with a season-ending knee injury, the backfield was supposed to be Gordon’s to roam freely in. Instead, the Denver Broncos signed Latavius Murray, who quickly usurped Gordon as the lead back.
Gordan played just nine snaps, representing 16.1% of the offensive plays the Broncos ran. More disappointingly, the two-time Pro Bowler had just three carries for eight yards. Fumble issues have plagued Gordon this year, with the running back dropping the ball four times and turning it over twice.
He performed reasonably well in his first game without Williams. Gordon carried the ball 15 times for 54 yards, adding 49 more on three catches in Week 5, offering no clarity on why he was effectively benched against the Los Angeles Chargers.
The Broncos made it clear that Murray will be the feature back moving forward. Gordon entered the season in fantasy limbo, where he remains heading into Week 7. Gordon is a hard pass on fantasy rosters unless Denver moves their soon-to-be disgruntled running back.
Rhamondre Stevenson (RB, New England Patriots) – Week 6 Snap Count 60/70 (85.7%)
When her majesty Mary J. Blige wrote the lyrics to No More Drama, she very well could have been referring to any timeshare running back duo. This applies to the New England Patriots this year.
Outside of their Week 1 loss to the Miami Dolphins, Rhamondre Stevenson had out-snapped Damien Harris every game this season. Even if Harris is cleared to return Monday against the Chicago Bears, we still expect Stevenson to be the Patriots’ back worth rostering.
Stevenson has emerged as the pre-eminent rusher in the Pats’ backfield. The former fourth-round pick has played 87.7% of the snaps over the past two weeks, including a season-high 60 against the Cleveland Browns. It’s no surprise that Bill Belichick continues to lean into his run game, but it is shocking how frequently they turn to Stevenson. The second-year back has 33 carries and six catches over the last couple of weeks, meaning he’s touching the ball 43.9% of the time when he’s on the field.
Objectively, Stevenson has outplayed Harris this year, and irrespective of injuries, Belichick will continue to ride the hot hand in primetime.
Deebo Samuel (WR, San Francisco 49ers) – Week 6 Snap Count 50/60 (83.3%)
For better or worse, the San Francisco 49ers are decreasing their reliance on Deebo Samuel. The All-Pro wide receiver is doing less for the Niners this season and hasn’t responded well to the reduced workload.
Samuel played a season-high 83.3% of the offensive plays in Week 6, a standard he surpassed seven times last season; however, the more concerning metric is the decreased volume he’s seeing in the passing game. The former South Carolina Gamecock has been targeted more than eight times just twice this season, hauling in a meager 57.4% of passes. Moreover, his target share is being eaten into by Brandon Aiyuk, with Samuel commanding 26.3% of the looks from quarterbacks, down from 29.4%.
Whether it’s an adverse reaction to a diminished role or natural regression following a career-best campaign last year, Samuel is not replicating his All-Pro form. With fewer snaps, touches, and catches but still maintaining an elite salary, it may be beneficial to look to other wide receivers on Sunday.
Marquise Brown (WR, Arizona Cardinals) – Week 6 Snap Count 68/71 (95.7%)
There will be some offensive reps to replace for the Arizona Cardinals. Marquise Brown has been a stabilizing force for Kyler Murray and spends more time on the field than most wide receivers in the NFL. Brown missed only three plays from scrimmage in Week 6 but could be gone the rest of the year after suffering a left foot injury.
It wasn’t just Week 6 in which Brown stood out as an elite performer. The fourth-year pro has played no fewer than 93.1% of snaps in any game this season and has been a preferred target each time out. Brown’s 64 targets represent a 25.0% target share, leading the team in both categories and hitting double-digit targets on four occasions.
The acquisition of Robbie Anderson validates the concerns regarding Brown’s availability; however, Anderson won’t come close to matching his predecessor’s production. According to PFF’s player grades, Brown had the 26th-best ranking among wide receivers. Anderson comes in at 106th.
Zach Ertz ranks second on the Cardinals in targets, receptions, and receiving yards and is the most likely candidate to step into Brown’s leading role. Similarly, keep an eye on Greg Dortch as a low-cost option who could absorb the vacant targets.
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