At FantasyLabs, we eat, breathe, and sleep football. So from September to February, we’re breaking down all facets of the game, looking for in-roads to the DFS and betting spaces. As part of our commitment to delivering outstanding football coverage, we’re monitoring player usage against fantasy impact to see which players are trending up and down.
There were some standout fantasy performances in Week 5. Travis Kelce shone like a star on Monday night football, hauling in four touchdown passes and single-handedly elevating fantasy rosters. We also can’t look past solid efforts from Dalvin Cook, Breece Hall, Austin Ekeler, and Nick Chubb, among several others, as players who turned the tide in head-to-head, tournament, and season-long matchups.
As usual, we’re reconciling usage trends with actual fantasy output to see which superstars are trending up and which are regression candidates as we prepare for Week 6 action.
Derrick Henry (RB, Tennessee Titans) – Week 5 Snap Count 41/64 (64.1%)
There’s a rift forming in Derrick Henry’s metrics that’s worth keeping an eye on. The two-time Pro Bowl running back’s usage has taken a hit this year, but his fantasy performances are trending up over the past few weeks, leaving DFS players no clear indication of what to expect from Henry moving forward.
The Tennessee Titans are taking a quality-over-quantity approach with their seventh-year superstar. Henry has played more than 70% of snaps just once this year, taking to the field just 64.1% of the plays in Week 5. Still, Henry was heavily involved in the play calling, touching the ball 30 times (28 rushes, two targets) in the 41 snaps he played.
The Titans method is working, as Henry’s been in fine form over the past few weeks. Over the past three weeks, the former second-round pick is averaging 4.3 yards per carry, toting the ball at least 20 times per game and surpassing the 100-yard barrier twice.
Expect sustained production from Henry, as he’s fresh every time he’s on the field. However, the door is also open for more quality efforts from wide receiver Robert Woods or backup running back Dontrell Hilliard as the Titans defer to the passing game with Henry on the sidelines more frequently.
Alvin Kamara (RB, New Orleans Saints) – Week 5 Snap Count 56/77 (72.7%)
Injuries have limited Alvin Kamara’s participation this year, but the five-time Pro Bowler may be called upon more frequently after the rash of injuries to Saints’ players.
Jameis Winston, Michael Thomas, Chris Olave, and Jarvis Landry are dealing with various ailments, leaving the Saints’ passing game depleted. Andy Dalton and Taysom Hill both took snaps under center against the Seattle Seahawks, creating some sort of hybrid/pseudo-wildcat offense with increased emphasis on the running game.
That’s also reflected in Kamara’s metrics, who played a season-high 72.7% of the offensive snaps in Week 5, resulting in his most productive fantasy week this season. Although he didn’t find the end zone, Kamara rushed the ball 23 times for 103 yards, adding six receptions for 91 yards, all of which were new high marks on the season.
If Sunday’s performance is any indication, Kamara is back to full health and will be relied upon more frequently as the Saints shift their focus to the running game over the next few weeks.
Stefon Diggs (WR, Buffalo Bills) – Week 5 Snap Count 43/56 (76.8%)
Stefon Diggs’ usage with the Buffalo Bills is analogous to Henry’s with the Titans. The former All-Pro’s playing fewer snaps but has been more productive on the field and could be on his way to setting career highs in several noteworthy categories.
Diggs played 76.8% of the offensive plays against the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday, his second-highest usage of the season. His usage didn’t dip below 73.6% at any point last season, a standard that he’s already fallen below three times this season. Nevertheless, Diggs has been targeted 11 or more ties in three of the past four weeks, earning a 24.6% target share along the way.
Improved efficiency is leading to tangible results on the field for Diggs. The Bills’ wideout is on pace for the most targets, receptions, and yards of his career, with the second-best catch percentage and best yards per game.
Even though they are playing with the lead, the Bills still call the fifth-most passing plays in the NFL, highlighting their affinity for Diggs in the passing game.
Gerald Everett (TE, Los Angeles Chargers) – Week 5 Snap Count 46/71 (64.8%)
There is no shortage of weapons in the Los Angeles Chargers offense, but Gerald Everett has been a constant early this season for Justin Herbert. His snap count is down with his new team, but that hasn’t come at the expense of Everett’s targets.
Last season with the Seattle Seahawks, Everett played fewer than 70% of snaps just three times; however, the tight end has been hovering around the 65% mark this season with the Chargers. Even so, Everett is commanding a more significant share of the looks on offense, with his targets per game increasing to 5.8 per game, up from 4.2 with the Seahawks.
The more profound impact is in the routes that Everett is running. The 28-year-old has been targetted 29 times this season, with 28 of those routes being less than 20 yards downfield, making him a preferred target in the red zone. Everett has already grabbed two touchdown passes this season, halfway to matching his career-high from last year.
Until Keenan Allen returns to the lineup, we should expect Everett to remain a target. Even then, he could be a top receiving option in the red zone, vulturing touchdowns for other top receivers.
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