At FantasyLabs, we eat, breathe, and sleep football. So from September to February, we’re breaking down all facets of the game, looking for in-roads to the DFS and betting spaces. As part of our commitment to delivering outstanding football coverage, we’re monitoring player usage against fantasy impact to see which players are trending up and down.
There were several standout fantasy performances from Week 4, with some less than stellar results on other fronts. The Kansas City Chiefs, Seattle Seahawks, and Detroit Lions surpassed the 40-point threshold in Week 4. At the same time, the defending Super Bowl Champion Los Angeles Rams failed to find the end zone against the division rival San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night Football.
Most teams landed between those extremes, with most starting to operate their offenses more efficiently. More importantly, we have a more concrete understanding of player usage and how teams deploy their top players.
Melvin Gordon (RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers) – Week 4 Snap Count 10/53 (18.9%)
An egregious fumble against the Las Vegas Raiders all but relegated Melvin Gordon to bench duties in Week 4. Still, his 18.9% snap count and three touches were the low points of his season as he moves into an RB1 role for the Denver Broncos.
Javonte Williams was the lead back in the Broncos’ offense for the first four weeks of the season. He out-paced Gordon in snap count by over 20.0% and out-touched him 63-45 in combined rushes and catches, earning a more significant piece of the offensive pie week after week. Now, a season-ending knee injury has forced Williams to the sideline, leaving a void that Gordon will fill.
However, it may be wise to proceed cautiously with Gordon. The Broncos running back has 34 rushing yards on 15 carries over the past two weeks for an average of 2.3 yards per carry. More ominously, Gordon has three fumbles over that stretch, highlighting why his usage was on the decline.
Gordon will get the lion’s share of touches out of the Broncos’ backfield the rest of the way, but increased snap count won’t proportionately equate to improved fantasy performance.
Najee Harris (RB, Pittsburgh Steelers) – Week 4 Snap Count 48/64 (75.0%)
Previously, we discussed Najee Harris’s usage and how improved fantasy performances should be expected from the former first-round pick. Well, Harris could be called upon even more frequently now that the Kenny Pickett era is underway in the Steel City.
When Pickett entered Week 4’s contest against the New York Jets, the Steelers called run plays on his first five snaps. That was foreshadowing what to expect the rest of the way. The Steelers turned to Pickett just 47.8% of the time, well below their season-long average of 58.5%, using their run game to insulate their young quarterback.
Consequently, Harris will have a bigger canvas to paint on. The second-year running back set season highs in three categories, carrying the ball 18 times for 74 yards while playing 48 snaps. That was the second-highest usage of any skilled player, falling behind only Diontae Johnson, who played 57 snaps.
Harris’s usage has been on the rise, precipitating better fantasy performances. That could be amplified over the coming weeks as the Steelers lean into their ground game to unburden their rookie quarterback.
DeVonta Smith (WR, Philadelphia Eagles) – Week 4 Snap Count 71/82 (86.6%)
The only thing that has been able to temper the Philadelphia Eagles offense is the rain. The Eagles remain one of the most potent units in the league, and their depth at wide receiver is a definite asset. However, it may come as a surprise that DeVonta Smith continually gets the most usage out of the wide receiver corps.
Smith has played more than A.J. Brown in every game this season, although Week 4’s effort came by the slimmest of margins, outplaying him by one snap. Still, Brown has been the better receiving option between the two, posting a PFF grade above 75.4 in all four outings, compared to Smith ranking above 73.1 only once.
Moreover, among pass catchers who have played at least four games, Smith ranks fourth on the team in yards per reception and has a contested catch rate of 28.6%, nearly half of Browns’ 55.6% mark.
Objectively, the data supports that Brown remains the primary receiving option in Philadelphia. Although, more 26.9 fantasy point performances like Smith’s Week 3 effort against the Commanders should be expected intermittently as he continues to outpace Brown in snap count.
Jonnu Smith (TE, New England Patriots) – Week 4 Snap Count 17/59 (28.8%)
An ankle injury forced Jonnu Smith out early against the Green bay Packers, negatively impacting his snap count. Still, his usage has been waning, and Hunter Henry has emerged as the primary receiving option among New England Patriots tight ends.
Since the start of the regular season, Smith’s snap count has declined week over week, bottoming out with a 28.8% rating in Week 4. Conversely, Henry’s usage has been holding relatively steady, with the tight end playing 70.0% or more of snaps in three of the four weeks, including a season-best 84.5% on Sunday. Further, Henry has outpaced Smith in route running in all four games this season.
Smith wasn’t involved in the passing game before exiting, while Henry was tied for the second-most targets, compiling a 20% target share versus the Packers. That could be the new standard with Smith on the mend from his ankle injury.
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