At FantasyLabs, we eat, breathe, and sleep football. So from September to February, we’re breaking down all facets of the game, looking for in-roads to the DFS and betting spaces. As part of our commitment to delivering outstanding football coverage, we’re monitoring player usage against fantasy impact to see which players are trending up and down.
Christmas interrupts the usual Sunday-heavy NFL schedule, which means even more slates to choose from in Week 16. The Jacksonville Jaguars and New York Jets kick off the week with the usual Thursday Night Football affair before a busy 11-game Saturday. Fret not traditionalists, as the league scheduled three games on Sunday, with a conclusive Monday Night Football matchup between the Los Angeles Chargers and Indianapolis Colts. As such, there will be no shortage of DFS contests to choose from starting Thursday.
As usual, we’re reconciling usage trends with actual fantasy output to see which superstars are trending up and which are regression candidates as we prepare for next week’s action.
NFL DFS Player Usage Trends
Derrick Henry (RB, Tennessee Titans) – Week 15 Snap Count 44/62 (71.0%)
Derrick Henry’s snap count has ebbed and flowed this year, but his usage appears to have stabilized as we head into the home stretch. More consistent usage from Henry could be the key to salvaging the Titans’ season, starting in Week 16 against the Houston Texans.
Henry’s fantasy performances nosedived from Week 10 to Week 13. The former Offensive Player of the Year played fewer than 59% of plays in three of the four weeks, resulting in 52 rushing yards per game and one touchdown across that stretch. However, Henry has resumed his usual workload over the past couple of weeks, and the Titans are better because of it.
Mike Vrabel deployed Henry on 71% of snaps against the Chargers last week, the second straight week north of 70%. Consequently, Henry’s rushing yards per game have inflated to 112.5, with the bruising back finding paydirt in both contests. That momentum could carry into Sunday’s divisional showdown with the Houston Texans. The Texans allow more rushing yards than any other team, setting the stage for another above-average performance from Henry.
The Titans’ grip on the AFC South crown is loosening, and they need a win to remain in control of their own destiny. Maximizing Henry’s contributions is the key to victory for Tennessee.
James Conner (RB, Arizona Cardinals) – Week 15 Snap Count 59/65 (90.8%)
We could be on the verge of a James Conner breakout performance. The Arizona Cardinals are dealing with injuries to several key players, resulting in an increase in Conner’s playing time. The two-time Pro Bowler has responded with some of his best efforts of the season.
Conner played 59 of 65 snaps on Sunday for a 90.8% usage rate. That was the fourth time over the past five weeks that Conner played at least 90.0% of the offensive plays and his lowest percentage in three weeks. More importantly, the Cardinals’ leading rusher has asserted himself as a top-tier playmaker, surpassing his FantasyLabs median projection in all five weeks.
Moreover, Conner’s market share values put him among the NFL’s elite running backs. The former third-round pick has accounted for 54.5% of his team’s rushing touchdowns over the last 12 months and 47.8% of the rushing yards. With Kyler Murray sidelined until the start of next season, Conner could see those metrics soar to end the campaign.
Arizona is playing it safe, preferring to run out the clock on the 2022 season by giving Conner an increased workload. His 188 touches this season are double that of the next-closest Cardinal, despite playing in only 11 games. We’re anticipating ongoing success from Conner, with a season-best performance potentially on the horizon.
Drake London (WR, Atlanta Falcons) – Week 15 Snap Count 60/74 (81.1%)
Every year a collection of rookies takes the league by storm. This year’s class is headlined by Garrett Wilson, Kenneth Walker, and Christian Watson, with all three players near the top of the Offensive Rookie of the Year futures market. Nevertheless, we could see Drake London surface as a contender before the end of the year as he carves out a more prominent role with the Atlanta Falcons.
London has appeared in all 14 Falcons’ games this year, starting 12 of those. But he’s made his biggest contributions over the past couple of weeks. The eighth-overall selection in last year’s draft has been targetted 23 times since Week 14, representing a 46% target share.
The uptick in targets isn’t surprising, considering the amount of time London spends on the field. He played 81.1% of snaps in Week 15, the ninth time this season he’s played at least 80.0% of the snaps. Further, London leads the Falcons in targets, receptions, and receiving yards and sits top 12 in the NFL in red zone opportunities.
The Falcons have unleashed London over their past few games, and he’s got the underlying metrics to support ongoing production. London’s snap count is promising, but his target share looks better. The former USC Trojan could take an even bigger piece of the pie Saturday against the Baltimore Ravens.
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