At FantasyLabs, we eat, breathe, and sleep football. So from September to February, we’re breaking down all facets of the game, looking for in-roads to the DFS and betting spaces. As part of our commitment to delivering outstanding football coverage, we’re monitoring player usage against fantasy impact to see which players are trending up and down.
Bye weeks are a thing of the past! DFS players will have their pick of the litter as we race towards an exciting conclusion to the 2022 regular season. It was another relatively low-scoring week, with seven of the 13 games falling beneath the total. Nevertheless, there were some standout fantasy efforts across the league. Weather could continue to impact totals and performances as we head into the coldest months of the season.
As usual, we’re reconciling usage trends with actual fantasy output to see which superstars are trending up and which are regression candidates as we prepare for next week’s action.
NFL DFS Player Usage Trends
D’Andre Swift (RB, Detroit Lions) – Week 14 Snap Count 25/69 (36.2%)
Seemingly, the Detroit Lions have underachieved for eons. The NFC playoff contenders have been relegated to the North Division basement since 2018, with their last winning record coming back in 2017. However, Dan Campbell has the Lions in the hunt for their first playoff berth since 2016. Their offense has been firing on all cylinders this year, but little of that success has to do with D’Andre Swift.
The former Georgia Bulldog has played behind Jamaal Williams for most of the campaign, with Williams taking over in the latter half of the season. Swift played just 25 offensive snaps against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 14, a threshold he’s surpassed just once since Week 8. Moreover, Swift has out-carried Williams just twice this season and has toted the ball six or fewer times six times over the last seven weeks.
Swift’s saving grace has been his usage in the passing game, but that’s not lifting him to fantasy relevance. Jared Goff is spreading the ball around with nine different pass-catchers hauling in receptions against the Minnesota Vikings. Amon-Ra St. Brown and Josh Reynolds are the preferred targets, but DJ Chark and Kalif Raymond have emerged as legitimate secondary options.
The shoulder and ankle injuries from earlier this year forced Swift down the Lions’ depth chart. Although Campbell continues to work him into their game plans, there are better fantasy performers to prioritize.
Miles Sanders (RB, Philadelphia Eagles) – Week 14 Snap Count 45/68 (66.2%)
Playing with the lead comes with many advantages. One of the indirect consequences is the ability to feed running backs the ball, control the clock, and wear down opposing defenses. Miles Sanders has been one of the fantasy beneficiaries of the Philadelphia Eagles’ success, and he could continue to flourish next week against the Chicago Bears.
On Sunday, Sanders played 66.2% of snaps against the New York Giants, his third-highest usage this season. More importantly, his touches per game have gone up over the last few weeks. Sanders has surpassed his average of 17.1 carries and receptions in two of the previous three games, contributing to his lofty 6.5 yards per carry and 117.7 yards from scrimmage per game over that stretch.
Granted, Sanders improved play also correlates with a decrease in competition. His best performances came against the Green Bay Packers and Giants, who rank 30th and 29th, respectively, in rushing yards allowed per game. However, the teams the Eagles face next, the Bears and Dallas Cowboys, aren’t much better. The Cowboys are the best of their next two opponents but still allow the tenth-most rushing yards per game — the Bears rank 27th.
His recent efforts are superb, and there’s no harm in playing the hot hand. The Eagles next four games come against some of the worst run defenses in the league. Although Sanders will eventually regress toward the mean, we’re not anticipating that to come in Week 15.
Tyler Lockett (WR, Seattle Seahawks) – Week 14 Snap Count 50/54 (92.6%)
Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Tyler Lockett could be one of the most underappreciated fantasy performers of the campaign. The former All-Pro has taken a backseat to DK Metcalf over the past couple of seasons, but his recent usage trends suggest there may be a benefit to stacking the Seahawks’ duo.
By the slimmest of margins, Lockett has out-snapped Metcalf in consecutive weeks. The former third-round pick has been on the field for more than 87.0% of plays for four straight weeks, building an improved connection with Geno Smith over the last couple of outings. Lockett has been targetted 21 times since Week 13, grabbing 14 passes for 188 yards.
Lockett’s yards per reception has improved with increased usage, jumping to 14.9 over his three-game sample, up from 12.6 on the season. His biggest fantasy asset has been his scoring ability, with Lockett finding paydirt in six straight games.
With games against the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs on the horizon, the Seahawks could be forced to turn to their passing game more frequently to keep pace with their superior opponents. That should mean sustained success from Lockett. Paired with Metcalf, they could account for most of the Seahawks’ yards and scoring.
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