At FantasyLabs, we eat, breathe, and sleep football. So from September to February, we’re breaking down all facets of the game, looking for in-roads to the DFS and betting spaces. As part of our commitment to delivering outstanding football coverage, we’re monitoring player usage against fantasy impact to see which players are trending up and down.
Thanksgiving week also serves as an inflection point of the NFL season. Every team is in action, and football fanatics will get their fill of action starting Thursday. From a DFS perspective, we have an extra day to play lineups, albeit with less time to prepare. That’s where FantasyLabs comes in, as we highlight players’ recent usage and what to expect on a short week for this week’s action.
As usual, we’re reconciling usage trends with actual fantasy output to see which superstars are trending up and which are regression candidates as we prepare for next week’s action.
NFL DFS Player Usage Trends
Dalvin Cook (RB, Minnesota Vikings) – Week 11 Snap Count 34/57 (59.7%)
You can’t blame the Minnesota Vikings for getting away from the run when you have guys like Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, and now T.J. Hockenson available as pass catchers. And although the Vikings offense is better because of it, it’s coming at Dalvin Cook’s expense.
Granted, Cook has been great in the red zone, finding paydirt five times over his past six outings, but this week’s usage illustrates a potential pitfall in his usage moving forward. Minnesota has prioritized getting the ball to their wideouts this season, and that’s amplified when the team is trailing.
Kirk Cousins is calling passing plays 64.3% of the time, the third-most often in the NFL. Moreover, the team has mounted five fourth-quarter comebacks this season, with Jefferson earning the lion’s share of targets. Throwing the ball has been a hallmark of their schemes, and that’s not going to change over the latter part of the season.
Cook played a season-low 34 snaps on Sunday, the sixth time this season that he’s played fewer than 80.0% of the plays. His carries per game (15.6) and yards per game (79.9) are down with it, both the second-lowest of his career.
If Cook’s touches in the red zone dry up, his fantasy value plummets.
Joe Mixon (RB, Cincinnati Bengals) – Week 11 Snap Count 14/67 (20.9%)
A concussion forced Joe Mixon out of the Cincinnati Bengals Week 11 contest against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Worse, it could keep him out for the foreseeable future, forcing the Bengals to look further down their depth chart.
The injury occurred after just 14 plays, limiting Mixon to his smallest workload of the season. The Pro Bowler toted the ball seven times for 20 yards, the seventh time this year that Mixon was limited to fewer than 3.5 yards per carry.
Samaje Perine stepped up in Mixon’s stead, posting a season-best 11 carries and 54 receiving yards. Still, the veteran running back was ineffective in the ground game, gaining just 30 yards for 2.7 yards per carry. That’s a concerning benchmark with some of the best pass defenses, the Tennessee Titans and Kansas City Chiefs, on the horizon.
Mixon’s injury leaves the Bengals rushing attack vulnerable. The team was already one of the worst in the NFL, accumulating the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game. That could bring the passing game more into focus as Joe Burrow and company compensate for losing their lead rusher.
Gabriel Davis (WR, Buffalo Bills) – Week 11 Snap Count 57/65 (87.7%)
The Buffalo Bills offense has been one of the most prolific units in the league. Led by Josh Allen, the Bills have posted the second-most yards and points per game. Stefon Diggs is up to his usual Pro Bowl antics, allowing Gabriel Davis to fly under the radar as a prominent fantasy player.
Davis has been a mainstay in Buffalo’s lineup, playing no fewer than 83.9% of snaps in any game while surpassing the 93.0% threshold on six occasions.
The third-year pro has been an above-average secondary option in the Bills’ packages, accumulating the second-most targets, receiving yards, and touchdowns behind Diggs. He’s also become a more frequent target over the last couple of games, earning a 24.3% target share since Week 10.
Davis has big play ability, leading all Buffalo pass catchers with 21.1 yards per catch and 11.1 yards per target. If you haven’t been paying attention yet, this is your only warning as Davis continues his ascent as a top fantasy contributor.
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