At FantasyLabs, we eat, breathe, and sleep football. So from September to February, we’re breaking down all facets of the game, looking for in-roads to the DFS and betting spaces. As part of our commitment to delivering outstanding football coverage, we’re monitoring player usage against fantasy impact to see which players are trending up and down.
We are coming up on the final week of the NFL season that features teams on a bye. Although that means there are more options to choose from for DFS action, it’s also a sad reminder of the brevity of the campaign. Nevertheless, eight full weeks are left in the season as teams dig in for a sincere playoff push and look to end the year on a strong note.
As usual, we’re reconciling usage trends with actual fantasy output to see which superstars are trending up and which are regression candidates as we prepare for next week’s action.
NFL DFS Player Usage Trends
Derrick Henry (RB, Tennessee Titans) – Week 10 Snap Count 36/62 (58.1%)
Derrick Henry will be an interesting case study at the end of this season. The two-time Pro Bowler has been used less frequently this season, bottoming out with a 58.1% usage rate in Week 10, but has seen an increase in fantasy productivity due to more frequent touches when he’s on the field. Although he was ineffective against the Denver Broncos, we could see Henry supplant himself at the front of the MVP conversation.
As bad as Denver has been this year, they deserve some credit for their defensive resiliency. The Broncos have the second-best total defense, sitting in the league’s top half in rushing yards allowed. That doesn’t excuse Henry for the sub-optimal performance last time out but, along with the thin mountain air, explains the diminished metrics.
Otherwise, Henry has been one of the best performers this season. The former Offensive Player of the Year had surpassed the century mark in five of his last six games, compiling the second-most rushing yards in the league.
Henry is getting a concentrated workload, touching the ball 61.1% of the time he was on the field last week against the Broncos and 64.8% of the time on the season. He’s on a short week heading into a Thursday night football contest against the Green Bay Packers, but he remains one of the pre-eminent running backs in the NFL.
Devin Singletary (RB, Buffalo Bills) – Week 10 Snap Count 54/75 (72.0%)
It’s been two weeks since the NFL trade deadline, and Devin Singletary’s usage remains unaffected by the acquisition of Nyheim Hines. At face value, that would imply that he remains a top option at running back. Still, the Buffalo Bills offense has evolved into a more pass-heavy scheme, limiting Singletary’s fantasy upside.
Despite playing at least 54% of snaps in each contest this season, Singletary didn’t record his first rushing touchdown until last week against the Minnesota Vikings. Moreover, he’s seen a decrease in his rushing attempts per game, posting the worst yards per carry of his career.
The Bills are turning to their passing attack more frequently, throwing the ball 62.2% of the time. That’s a 3.0% increase relative to last year’s metrics and the eighth-highest ratio of passing plays.
Even though Singletary has played at least 72.0% of snaps in four straight weeks, it’s unlikely he will replicate last week’s performance. At one point, Singletary was one of the Bills’ top secondary performers. Now, he’s an afterthought in game planning and an easy target to look past in fantasy.
Nick Chubb (RB, Cleveland Browns) – Week 10 Snap Count 32/67 (47.8%)
Much was made of the timeshare in the Cleveland Browns backfield at the outset of the season, but through 10 weeks, Nick Chubb has cemented himself as the top rusher. Chubb had a diminished role against the Miami Dolphins in Week 10, yet he remains the preferred rusher for Cleveland.
Chubb has out-snapped Kareem Hunt in every contest since Week 1, nearly doubling his carries and tripling his yards. Although the usage is relatively close, there’s been a pronounced difference in touches over the last few weeks. Since Week 6, Hunt has toted the ball six or fewer times in three of the Browns’ four games with a cumulative 26 carries. Across the same sample, Chubb is up to 62 carries and has out-targeted Hunt in all but one of those contests.
The Browns were playing from behind from the outset against the Fins, forcing them to turn to the passing game more frequently and limiting Chubb’s usage. Still, the three-time Pro Bowler rattled off 11 carries for 63 yards, adding 18 more through the air while finding paydirt on a game-long 33-yard jaunt.
Hunt has fallen by the wayside, and Chubb is the lead back for the Browns. Cleveland is incorporating Hunt into the offense just enough to tempt DFS players into including him on the roster, but at this point, it’s all an illusion.
Justin Jefferson (WR, Minnesota Vikings) – Week 10 Snap Count 83/83 (100%)
It would take a remarkable campaign from a wide receiver to be the first to take home an MVP award, but that’s the effort we’re getting from Justin Jefferson this year. The third-year pro has accumulated the second-most receiving yards this season and has several noteworthy metrics supporting his candidacy.
Jefferson played 100% of the snaps in Week 10, the fourth time he’s reached that threshold this season. However, he’s been a high-volume performer all year. The two-time Pro Bowler has played no fewer than 91.9% of the offensive plays this season while remaining a focal point in the Minnesota Vikings’ schemes.
On Sunday, Kirk Cousins targeted Jefferson a season-best 16 times against the Bills, the fourth time in six outings in which Jefferson saw at least 13 passes. As usual, Jefferson made the most of those targets, hauling in 10 and going off for 193 receiving yards, which was the fifth time in six contests in which he surpassed 100 yards.
Jefferson’s 28.0% target share is matched only by his 97.7% snap count. The Vikings have prioritized him in the offense, and Jefferson has responded with MVP-caliber metrics.
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