Super Wild Card Weekend has multiple featured DraftKings slates, with the first coming on Saturday at 4:30 p.m. ET. It’s just a two-game slate, so we’ll discuss strategy angles as well as player-level takes for the small slate.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Stud
With both games on Saturday having totals under 45, it’s a tough week to pay up at quarterback. Three of the four quarterbacks on the slate are priced within $300 of each other, with Patrick Mahomes ($7,100) leading the way.
While he’s the most expensive, he also has the highest median and ceiling projection, with Kansas City coming in with the highest total on the slate. They’re taking on the Dolphins, who rank 18th in DVOA against the pass and have an explosive offense of their own capable of forcing Kansas City to stay aggressive.
Mahomes isn’t a slam dunk this week, though. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus score just twice all year, with the last time coming 10 weeks ago. Miami’s overall pass-defense numbers are a bit misleading as well. Since getting Jalen Ramsey back in Week 8, they’ve been considerably tougher in the secondary.
Still, there are reasonable holes to poke in all of the top passers on Saturday. Tua Tagovailoa ($7,000) has to take on the elite pass defense of the Chiefs, and CJ Stroud ($6,800) is also facing an elite Browns defense with a banged-up receiver room.
For tournaments, the best play of the group is probably whoever comes in at the lowest ownership, at least if there’s a significant gap. That appears to be Tagovailoa, who also has receivers capable of winning in any matchup.
Value
For cash games, we’re not playing any of the aforementioned players. That’s because Joe Flacco ($6,100) is far and away the best value play on the board.
Flacco has outscored his salary-based expectation in all five starts this season, with as many 25-point games (three) as Mahomes has in 16 games. He also has the easiest matchup on the slate against an extreme pass funnel defense in the Texans.
Houston ranks second in DVOA against the run but 23rd against the pass. Cleveland is clearly comfortable letting Flacco cook, with 40 or more pass attempts in four of his starts so far. That should only increase this week, given the matchup, so volume is certainly on his side.
Flacco should garner massive ownership, making a GPP fade probably wise. However, he’s far too strong of a play to pass on in cash, with the best Pts/Sal projection on the slate.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Stud
Running back is especially weak on this slate, with the top projection belonging to Isiah Pacheco ($6,400) with Devin Singletary ($5,700) close behind.
It’s not an ideal spot for either player, both of whom have shared significant portions of the workload at various points throughout the season. We’re anticipating both to get more of a workhorse role in the playoffs, though, as there’s no sense in managing reps when every game is do-or-die.
Pacheco has the considerably better matchup, taking on the Dolphins’ 21st-ranked run defense. Compare that to the top-five unit of the Browns that Singletary will be facing. Pacheco also has the more robust passing-game role, which makes him the safer play regardless of the game flow.
They’re still the two best cash game plays this week, but more for want of any stronger options than their own merits. For tournaments, I prefer pivoting from one or both of them to one of the Dolphins’ backs, with De’Von Achane ($6,800) and Raheem Mostert ($6,700) both capable of breaking slates but projecting for much lower ownership. Mostert is officially questionable, so keep an eye on the news there. Him missing time would make Achane much more appealing — and more popular.
Value
The two aforementioned backs also lead the slate in Pts/Sal projection while falling in what would traditionally be considered “value” salary ranges. Outside of those two, the best cheap option is Jerome Ford ($5,500), the closest thing to a lead back in Cleveland since they lost Nick Chubb for the season.
Ford is extremely game script dependent, with single-digit carries in every Browns loss since taking over as the starter. He’s averaging about 14 carries in Browns’ wins in that span, so rostering him is a bet on the slightly favored Browns to take care of business this week.
That means pairing Ford with Texans pass catchers makes sense, as one of them could post solid scores while chasing points. I’d avoid pairing him with Singeltary, though, as Singeltary also does his best work with a positive game script. Ford is a solid tournament pivot from the more popular Singletary, especially if paired with Achane or another less-popular option.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Stud
At least one position has a locked-in top option. That would be, of course, Tyreek Hill ($8,700), who has as many games (six) over 30 DraftKings points as he does under 20 this season. He easily leads our median projections this week despite projecting him around six points below his average for the season.
Not that it doesn’t make sense for him to fall towards his lower range of outcomes this week. He has a road matchup against the tough pass defense of the Chiefs at one of the tougher stadiums for opposing offenses to function in. That is unless you believe in the “revenge game” angle, as Hill is taking on his long-time former team.
Either way, salary is loose enough on this small slate that it’s not difficult to get up to Hill in almost any build. I see no reason to fade him this week, as a bad game by his standards could potentially still be the best wide receiver score of the day.
Value
In four games with Flacco, Amari Cooper ($6,800) is averaging double-digit targets and has a 54.50-point game — against these same Houston Texans.
Obviously, projecting Cooper to repeat that production isn’t reasonable. However, the Browns’ extreme shift to the passing attack coupled with the soft pass defense of the Texans is an excellent combination. We have Cooper projected just behind Hill at nearly $2,000 less, making him easily the best value play.
Nico Collins ($7,000) and Rashee Rice ($6,600) are just behind Cooper from a Pts/Sal standpoint. Both have taken over as the top receiver in their respective offenses, with talented quarterbacks to get them the ball. Both are also in difficult matchups and are likely to fall toward the lower end of their typical range of outcomes. This makes them strong plays in the context of a smaller slate, as we might not need a huge day from any individual player to win.
On the cheaper side, Elijah Moore ($4,000) has also benefited from the Browns’ change in approach. He’s averaging a bit over six targets per game with Flacco, with a pair of double-digit scores in those five games. It’s entirely possible Houston sells out to stop Cooper from burning them again, which leaves some more space for Moore to get open. It’s a bit thinner of a play, but it’s worth taking a shot at his price point.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Stud
At this point in the season/his career, how much do you trust Travis Kelce ($6,100)? He hasn’t beat his salary-based expectations since Week 6 against the Chargers, and it’s not just a function of a less-explosive Chiefs offense. Kelce has been outright bad, with seven drops (second among all tight ends) and a noticeable loss of explosion.
On the other hand, it’s the playoffs, and Kelce might have one strong run left in him. The Dolphins have struggled against tight ends all season, ranking 25th in points allowed to the position. It’s hard to see the Chiefs not getting Kelce heavily involved if this game turns into a shootout, and he should be fresh after getting Week 18 off.
The other option at the top end is David Njoku ($5,600). The Browns tight end has, you guessed it, broken out with Joe Flacco at quarterback. He’s gone over 20 DraftKings points in three of his last four games, with no such scores in the 12 contests with other quarterbacks. Houston is even worse against tight ends than Miami, so it’s also a soft matchup for him.
Njoku is the better on-paper play of the two here, especially when considering the $500 in savings. Early ownership projections have both players reasonably close, which would push me to Njoku if it holds. However, keep an eye on those as we approach lock, as Kelce could make sense as a leverage play at lower ownership.
Value
Outside of the top two options, the only player projecting for even a mediocre Pts/Sal is Dalton Schultz ($4,400). The Texans tight end has seen an increased target share in recent games, given the status of Houston’s wide receiver corps, with nearly seven targets per game in his last four.
However, the Texans should be slightly healthier at the position this week, though both Noah Brown ($5,100) and Robert Woords ($3,600) are officially questionable. We’ll have more clarity before the slate locks (Houston is the early game), and Schultz would see an increase in his value if either player were to miss.
GPP Roster Construction
GPP strategy this week essentially comes down to which chalky players you’re most comfortable with fading. Every position has a clear best player(s), and you can fit our top Pts/Sal option at every position except tight end if you roster Shultz over the slightly better-projecting options.
That lineup will be far too popular to be +EV, so deciding where to pivot will be crucial. My favorite way to do so is through the Dolphins offense, with both running backs and Tyreek Hill projecting for considerably less ownership than other players at their positions.
The matchup is obviously tough for Miami, but all three players have the ability to beat any defense. Pivoting to Miami’s defense (which is projecting a cut below the rest of the field in ownership) is another way to gain some leverage, especially if you’re fading Chiefs’ offensive pieces.
Either way, we have plenty of salary flexibility this week, so use that to build somewhat unique rosters. Leaving a bit of salary on the table is an option as well. It’s an easy way to come in somewhat unique while still playing strongly projected plays.
Cash Games
As always, on smaller, sequential slates, the real key is planning for and executing late swaps. Remember how I said you can play all of the top Pts/Sal players outside of tight end? That’s going to be pretty close to what most players come in with on this slate.
That lineup features just two pieces from the later game, both from the Chiefs. If you’re running something similar to that lineup and fall behind, a pivot to one or two Dolphins is the obvious way to go. If you’re running that lineup and it performs as expected, then you can sit back and enjoy your chop at the cash line.
