With the NFL moving the Steelers-Bills game to Monday, we now have a two-game Monday slate kicking off at 4:30 p.m. ET.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Stud
While the weather is a bit better in Buffalo on Monday than we were expecting on Sunday, it’s still not ideal conditions. Josh Allen ($8,000) and the Bills passing attack will be dealing with sustained winds in the mid-teens, with gusts up to 30 mph.
That’s not horrible and doesn’t qualify Allen for a complete fade. Especially with his rushing ability — he added two rushing touchdowns in Week 18 to tie for the second-most rushing scores in the regular season at 15. There’s even an argument that the adverse conditions could lead to more rushing opportunities for Allen.
Still, those factors combine for a net negative, putting Allen just behind Jalen Hurts ($7,700) for the best projections on the slate. Hurts tied Allen with 15 rushing touchdowns this season, and the closer point spread in his game against Tampa suggests they’ll remain aggressive longer than the Bills.
The downside for Hurts is the loss of top receiver AJ Brown for this game, as well as a broken finger on his throwing hand. The latter seems to be a significant problem, as Hurts went seven for 16 for just 55 yards last week against the Giants. Still, it’s easy to view that as a fluke, given his history.
It’s close enough that the decision (at least for GPPs) comes down to ownership projections. We have Allen as about twice as popular as Hurts, which makes the latter the better tournament option. For cash games, I prefer the safety of Allen — but I wouldn’t hesitate to play Hurts if I needed the $300.
Value
You couldn’t draw it up much better for Baker Mayfield ($5,800). He’s extremely cheap, a slight home underdog, and taking on one of the most dysfunctional pass defenses in the league in the Eagles. Philadelphia ranks 28th in DVOA overall on the season but has been considerably worse in recent weeks.
On top of that, he has an extremely concentrated offense around his top recievers, with Mike Evans ($6,900) and Chris Godwin ($6,200) accounting for nearly 50% of Tampa Bay’s targets and 65% of their air yards. That makes for an easy GPP stack, something that’s in short supply on this slate.
Mayfield is my favorite quarterback option of the slate when you factor in salary, and he leads our models in Pts/Sal projection. He doesn’t provide the rushing production of Hurts or Allen, but he can provide enough value through his arm in the right matchup to make up for it — and this is certainly the right matchup.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
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The best projection in our models belongs to Rachaad White ($6,900), thanks to his near-workhorse role in the Bucs offense. He’s both their lead between the tackles back AND their best pass-catching option, which makes him a safe option regardless of the game flow.
However, he hasn’t shown much of a ceiling this season. He has just four games over 20 points and one over 25 — with no 30-point performances. That’s made him a tough GPP-click since his salary came up to the $6,000+ range. Of course, extremely small slates are a different story.
A score in the low 20s for White likely laps the field at running back, as he’s the only player projecting for more than 15 DraftKings points on Monday. He also leads the slate in Pts/Sal projection, making him a near-lock for cash games.
The other high-end back worth considering is Buffalo’s James Cook ($6,600). The Bills have been far more run-heavy down the stretch, and the weather conditions should only further that trend. The downside is Josh Allen is effectively the Bills’ goal-line back, so you’d be banking on Cook breaking a big run to produce a big ceiling score. He’s a thinner play than White but certainly has a shot at breaking the slate open.
Value
I’m torn on the Steelers backs this week. On the one hand, Jaylen Warren ($5,100) should benefit from the likeliest game script. The Steelers are double-digit underdogs, and Warren is much more involved in the passing game than Najee Harris ($5,400). On the season, Warren has 74 targets to Harris’ 38.
On the other hand, we’re anticipating both teams run the ball more than usual, which, in theory, benefits Harris. Harris out-carried Warren 255 to 149 on the season and doubled him up on rushing touchdowns eight to four.
If this game were still being played in brutal conditions on Sunday, that would probably be enough to push me towards Harris. However, the shift to Monday likely helps Warren. The type of routes he runs shouldn’t be impacted too heavily by the weather, and an uptick in rush rate likely helps both players fairly equally.
The other starting back on this slate is De’Andre Swift ($6,000). He has a similar issue as Cook in that his quarterback vultures most of the short-area touchdowns. He’s also facing a much tougher running defense as a smaller favorite. Outside of ownership, there’s not really a compelling reason to play Swift this week.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Stud
I mentioned them already, but the Bucs duo of Chris Godwin and Mike Evans are my favorite wide receiver plays on the slate. The game flow suggests Tampa Bay will need to air it out, and the Eagles’ secondary is in shambles.
Evans is clearly the alpha in the Mayfield-led version of this offense. Besides a considerably deeper depth of target (aDOT), he’s also seen more overall targets than Godwin. That’s led to a massive lead in air yards, which functions as a reasonable stand-in for wide receiver opportunities. Evans also tied for the lead in receiving touchdowns on the season with 13.
Still, there’s room for good (relative to the small slate) games for both players. Mayfield’s lack of rushing ability means he needs a ton of passing production for a big score, which probably brings both of his top wideouts along with him.
We’re also showing strong projections on Stefon Diggs ($7,400) and DeVonta Smith ($6,700), though neither is an especially comfortable play. Diggs doesn’t have a single game of 20 DraftKings points in the second half of the season, which could be a sign of something off. That’s plus the weather issues in this game, which are concerning for the passing attack.
Smith should, in theory, see a much larger target share with AJ Brown unavailable this week. However, he’s been wildly inconsistent all season. Historically, he’s benefited more from Dallas Goedert’s ($4,800) missing time than Brown, thanks to his routes more resembling those of their tight end. On the other hand, if Hurts is at all effective as a passer this week, he’ll need Smith to play well, so he’s a great stacking partner.
Value
There are a few WR3 options in the $3,000 range at the top of our Pts/Sal projection. First is Khalil Shakir ($3,400), who’s theoretically the second option in Buffalo with Gabe Davis injured. However, we’re expecting a lowered pass rate and competition from tight ends Dalton Kincaid ($4,600) and Dawson Knox ($2,900). His value is more of a low-volume deep ball threat than a high-volume option — but at $3,400, he just needs one or two to pay off his salary.
Next is the Bucs Trey Palmer ($3,400). He’s been behind both Godwin and Evans and roughly tied with White in terms of the Tampa Bay pecking order. However, since we’re expecting an elevated pass rate from Tampa, he’s a pretty safe bet for six or so targets — which is solid at this price range.
Finally, we have Julio Jones ($3,900) of the Eagles. The mid-season signee has been quiet most of the season but popped up for a two-touchdown game in Week 17. He feels like more of a direct replacement for Brown’s skill set than any of the Eagles’ other receivers. This is precisely the scenario Philadelphia signed Jones for, and the Bucs are a pass-funnel defense.
Palmer feels like the safest choice of the trio for cash games but probably the worst for tournaments. I’d lean slightly towards Jones for GPPs over Shakir. The extra $500 in salary should keep ownership down, which is crucial on a small slate.
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NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Stud
Dallas Goedert ($4,800) should see a big increase in targets with Brown out of the lineup — at least according to our projections. He’s the clear leader in median and ceiling at the position — though that’s not saying much this week.
Still, it’s a solid setup for Goedert. Tampa Bay ranks 31st in fantasy points allowed to tight ends, with an Opponent Plus/Minus score of positive 2.3. He’s likely to be the second option in the Eagles attack following Smith, and the close spread should lead to a decent pass rate.
There’s a case for fading him based on Hurts’ issues as a thrower lately and his likely high ownership, but he’s the best on-paper play of the week. He leads the slate in median projections and Pts/Sal by a wide margin.
Value
It’s pretty thin after Goedert, with Cade Otton ($3,100) the only other player with a Pts/Sal projection over two. He’s averaging about four targets per game, with four touchdowns on the season.
As bad as Philly has been against the pass, they’ve been strong against tight ends. Their front seven remains strong, so opposing teams have had to leave tight ends for extra blocking help. That’s led to an Opponent Plus/Minus of -2.4 against the position this season.
Of course, Otton could fall into the end zone for another touchdown, post a similar score to Goedert, and break the slate. We could say that about all of the non-Goedert tight ends this week, but Otton is the likeliest by a bit.
GPP Roster Construction
As always on two-game slates, the key is to build unique lineups, even if they’re somewhat less likely to go off. My guess is most of the field will build around the two favored offenses (Buffalo and Philadelphia), leaving an ownership deficit for the other teams.
The sweet spot for me is the Bucs, as Mason Rudolph ($5,300) and the Steelers in a tough matchup with brutal weather is a bit thin even for the tiny slate. I could see the argument for huge GPPs (Rudolph had a good game in there!), but it’s a stretch.
Outside of that, fading the chalk at tight end (Goedert) or defense (Buffalo ($3,500)) likely gives you a massive edge in terms of ownership. Given the difficulty in accurately projecting those positions, it’s probably worth taking the risk.
Cash Games
It’s a tricky slate for cash games, as you can effectively play the highest-projected player(s) at every position. If you’re playing cash games, you probably should do that and allow your opponents to make a mistake somewhere. This approach requires one of the three cheap wideouts mentioned above, though.
I’d go with Palmer unless you’re rostering both Godwin and Evans already. Five Bucs (including Mayfield and White) feels wrong, even on a two-game slate. I’m fine with Jones as the pivot there, or you could fade Godwin and roster another expensive wideout or De’Andre Swift.
As always, be mindful of late swapportunities, as that’s likely what will decide winners and losers on the slate. If you’re unable to keep an eye on things to make the needed pivots, I’d sit this one out.
