NFL DFS Picks: Week 9 Main Slate DraftKings Breakdown

While we aren’t quite at max capacity, with just two teams on bye and no Europe game, we have a big 12-game slate for Week 9 on DraftKings. As always, it kicks off at 1:00 p.m. Eastern.

In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.

Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.

Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.

You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

NFL DFS Quarterback Picks

Stud: Josh Allen ($7,700) Buffalo Bills (-6) vs. Miami Dolphins (49 Total)

We’ve got options at the top of the quarterback salary scale this week, as the three most expensive options all come with median projections of 22 or more DraftKings points. The leader among those is Allen, who is about half a point clear of the rest of the field.

The Bills had been one of the more run-heavy teams in the league prior to the trade for Amari Cooper ($5,800), but in the two weeks since have allowed Allen to attempt 33 and 34 passes — both season highs at the time. Cooper is questionable this week, so keep an eye on his status in our news feed. Without Cooper, we could have a limited workload from Allen, as we saw earlier in the season.

If Cooper plays, this could be the best game environment on the slate. The Dolphins have Tua Tagovailoa ($6,200) back and put up a season-high 27 points last week. This game’s 49-point total is the second-highest on the slate, as is the Bills team total.

The risk on Allen is that the Bills score an early touchdown or two on the ground and keep Allen’s involvement limited. For that reason, It’s important to stack Allen with pieces from the Miami side for GPPs — but we have plenty of options. Allen is also running a bit less this season, so it also makes sense to stack Allen with pass catchers.

To put all of that another way, Allen is a great play — if the game environment cooperates. It’s game stacks or bust for me.

Value: Geno Smith ($5,800) Seattle Seahawks (+1) vs. Los Angeles Rams

The value quarterback revolution has been the DFS storyline of the year in my eyes. After a few seasons of spending up for elite dual-threat weapons as the dominant strategy, salaries have grown wide enough that the lower end of the salary scale provides the most value.

This week that’s Geno Smith, whose Seahawks lead the league in Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE). Smith hasn’t been particularly efficient, with just eight touchdowns through eight games. However, the NFL’s leading passer by yardage is attempting 38.5 passing attempts per game.

Now he gets an excellent spot against a Rams team that struggles on defense but has the pieces on offense to push the game total up. Los Angeles ranks 27th in DVOA against the pass and put up a season-high 30 points against a tough Vikings defense last week, thanks to the return of key offensive contributors.

That means Smith checks all the boxes here. He should get plenty of volume against a soft defense, and he’s long overdue for some touchdown regression. He’s a solid floor play without the touchdowns, but a multiple-score game would unlock tons of upside.

It’s hard to get away from Geno for cash games, as he leads the slate in Pts/Sal projection. He’s got plenty of GPP appeal as well, thanks to a potentially condensed offense with DK Metcalf ruled out. That makes for easier stacking, though it hurts Geno’s floor projections.

Quick Hits

Jalen Hurts ($7,800): Hurts was able to convert three “tush push” touchdowns last week, a feat he’s unlikely to repeat this week (or ever). Still, he’s in a solid spot against a Jaguars defense, allowing the second-most points to quarterbacks. Similar to Allen, his outlook depends on the Jaguars keeping pace as 7.5-point underdogs. That’s not entirely unlikely, though, with Jacksonville dropping 59 points over the past two weeks. He trails only Allen in median and ceiling projection.

Jayden Daniels ($7,500): Daniels’ hail-mary with time expiring also falls in the category of things we shouldn’t bank on, with the play accounting for an additional nine or so DraftKings points by putting him over the 300-yard threshold. Still, he’s in a much softer matchup this week against a mediocre Giants defense, whose strong pass rush could force him out of the pocket and increase his rushing production.

Dak Prescott ($6,400): Cowboys-Falcons has the highest total on the slate at 52, and it’s the only game currently north of 50. Hopefully, the Cowboys continue to lean on the pass the way they did late last week when Dak connected with CeeDee Lamb ($8,800) for 98 yards and two touchdowns in the second half. There’s a case for playing Lamb without Prescott as part of Falcons stacks, but I’ll be interested in both sides of this one.

Kirk Cousins ($6,400): The obvious way to approach this game is through Cousins since Atlanta has six players with a double-digit target share. Cousins with any two of them and a Lamb bring-back captures the biggest chunk of the production in the game. I’ll let ownership steer me to which way to attack this one, though.

Bo Nix ($5,900): The Broncos rookie has the best game of his young career last week against the Panthers, accounting for four total touchdowns and scoring 29 DraftKings points. Now he faces a Ravens team that’s faced the second-most pass attempts per game and ranks 30th in points allowed to the position. I prefer Smith for cash games, but Nix is a close second among cheaper passers.

NFL DFS Running Back Picks

Stud: Alvin Kamara ($7,800) New Orleans Saints (-7) at Carolina Panthers (43.5 Total)

Alvin Kamara is averaging just 10 carries per game over the past three weeks, as his Saints suffered three straight blowout losses. Brighter days could be here in Week 9, as it sounds like Derek Carr ($5,600) will be back under center.

More importantly, they’re taking on the dreadful Panthers, who just traded away perhaps their best offensive player in Diontae Johnson. Carolina is the best matchup for running backs by both total points and Opponent Plus/Minus, and the Saints are favored by seven. That means the game script should also work in Kamra’s favor here.

With Rashid Shaheed on IR and Bub Means out for the week, Kamara should also continue to be heavily involved in the passing game. It couldn’t line up much better than this for Kamara from a game script or matchup perspective.

While he checks in third in median projection, he’s my favorite play on the slate at the position. Particularly for cash games, as he leads the slate in floor projection.

Value: Nick Chubb ($5,800) Cleveland Browns (+1.5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (42.5 Total)

Finding the right time to roster a player returning from a significant injury is always difficult. This is the third game back for Chubb, who’s produced just 74 rushing yards and one catch in his first two games back from injury.

It would make sense if he’s a bit more involved this week. The Browns season has new life with Jameis Winston ($5,400) under center, and a rising offensive tide lifts all boats to an extent. The Chargers are also easier to attack on the ground than through the air, though they’re not quite a run funnel.

The game script is the one concern here. With Cleveland as slight underdogs, there’s a chance Chubb gets limited looks in this one. He’s never been heavily involved in the passing game, so he needs a positive or neutral script to see usable volume.

Still, the game should stay close for long enough for Chubb to get his run. Especially relative to his $5,800 price tag — which would’ve been unthinkable prior to his injury. I’m nervous about playing him in cash games, but the savings might make it a necessity. He’s an excellent GPP option though, as we want to be early on his reemergence as a top fantasy producer.

Quick Hits

Saquon Barkley ($8,200): If one or two of Hurts’ goal-line touchdowns had gone to Barkley last week, he would’ve been an awesome play. He ran for over 100 yards but was held out of the end zone thanks to his quarterback vulturing. He gets another good matchup against the Jaguars this week. It’s nearly impossible to predict who gets the running touchdowns in Philly, but I want exposure to both possible choices in this spot. Just don’t play them in the same lineup. Barkley leads the position in median projection.

Bijan Robinson ($7,400): Robinson is the third player in the top tier in median projection, slotting in between Kamara and Barkley. He has the cheapest salary of the three and is taking on a Cowboys team that’s been dominated by running backs this season. He also has the widest range of outcomes of the group, with opportunity counts ranging from 26 to 11 with little rhyme or reason to explain the discrepancy. He’s a great large-field GPP play, but a little scary for cash games or tighter builds.

Tyrone Tracy ($5,500): Tracy cleared concussion protocol on Friday, meaning he’s good to go this week. He’s taken over the Giants backfield, running for 145 yards and a score on 20 carries, even with Devin Singletary ($6,100) active last week. It’s an even better matchup this week against the Commanders, making Tracy a great play.

Kyren Williams ($8,000): Williams is projecting a bit behind the other players in his price range but still needs to be considered. All he does is score touchdowns, with at least one in every game, and two multi-score contests. He also leads the NFL by a wide margin in share of a team’s rushing attempts, at 76%. The matchup with Seattle is fairly neutral, but usage is king.

Chuba Hubbard ($6,500): After a hot start to the season, a combination of brutal game scripts and tough matchups has led to some down weeks for Hubbard. Carolina is going back to Bryce Young ($4,400) under center this week, which should increase their run rate. They also have a great offensive line matchup, which helps with efficiency. Hubbard is a sneaky buy-low this week.

De’Von Achane ($6,700): Achane put up a 6/50/1 line in the passing game last week, accounting for 17 DraftKings points through the air. He added 97 rushing yards on just 10 carries and had he hit 100 would’ve been a slate-breaker. The Dolphins are six-point underdogs this week against a tough rushing defense — so don’t bank on the 100 yard bonus — but his passing game work keeps him in the conversation.

Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:

NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks

Stud: CeeDee Lamb ($8,800) Dallas Cowboys (+3) at Atlanta Falcons

Those of us who used an early draft pick on Lamb were pleased with how the second half of his Week 8 game turned out. As alluded to in Prescott’s section, he had laser-focus on his top wide receiver down the stretch, as Lamb finished with 17 targets.

A heavy dose of Lamb may be the Cowboys; best — or only — shot to win this season, so expect more of the same. We saw a similar situation last year when Dallas gave up any pretenses of a running game or balanced offense in the season’s second half.

If that repeats itself this year, we’ll get some massive scores from the Cowboys’ top weapon. It’s a near-perfect game script this week, too. Dallas is a slight underdog in a dome, in the highest-total game on the slate.

He’s just expensive enough to not project as a great Pts/Sal option, but that won’t matter if he sees another 15+ targets. I’m considering Lamb for cash games, but will certainly have heavy GPP exposure.

Value: Tyreek Hill ($7,300) Miami Dolphins (+6) at Buffalo Bills (49 Total)

I need to get a “value does not equal cheap” sign to periodically tap, as once again, a (somewhat) expensive player leads a position in Pts/Sal projection. That would be none other than Tyreek Hill, who was a moderate disappointment with heavy ownership last week.

There were some encouraging signs, though. Namely, the Dolphins offense was functional for the first time this season, putting up 27 points with Tua Tagovailoa ($6,200) back in action. Hills 72 yards were his most since Week 1 when Tagovailoa went down.

Hill was held out of the end zone, which turned what would’ve been a solid day into a letdown. That hasn’t historically been a problem with him in Miami, though, so brighter days are ahead.

With Miami as a six-point underdog, they should be forced to attack downfield in this one. Buffalo has a moderately tough passing defense, but Hill has the talent and speed to get there regardless of matchup. He’s not quite a must in cash games due to his salary, but he should be in strong consideration — as are stacks built around him.

Quick Hits

Browns Receivers: It was Cedric Tillman ($4,300) who went off last week, catching seven of nine targets for 99 yards and two scores. However, Elijah Moore ($4,200) led the team in targets and catches, with 12 and 8, respectively. Jerry Jeudy ($5,100) also drew eight looks of his own. All three are arguably underpriced, and it’s hard to have much confidence in who the best play is. My money is on Moore, whose lower aDOT should help him serve as a relief valve against a tough Chargers pass rush.

Ja’Marr Chase ($8,600): Chase is projecting above Hill but below Lamb among the median projection leaders this week. He has a good matchup against a bad Raiders pass defense that ranks 26th in DVOA against the pass. It might be too good, though, as this one could turn into a blowout. I’m only playing Chase with some Raiders players thrown in the mix.

Chris Olave ($6,100): Olave excelled in his first game without Rashid Shaheed last week, turning 14 targets into eight catches for 107 yards. Now he gets an upgrade at quarterback and a dreadful Panthers defense. Similar to Chase, the matchup might almost be too good, but at $6,100, we have some leeway. He’s solid leverage off Kamara or a bring-back for Panthers pieces.

Drake London ($6,700): I’m more interested in the running game against the run-funnel Cowboys, but London is worth a look too. He ranks sixth in the NFL in target share and will be heavily involved if the Falcons fall behind. That’s a big “if” considering the state of the Cowboys, so build around him appropriately if looking that way.

Malik Nabers ($7,500): Nabers hasn’t been the same since returning from injury, with 11 catches for 112 yards in the two games. However, he faced two above-average pass defenses and might not have been full strength. He has a much better matchup against Washington this week, so I’ll keep buying low on Nabers until his price tag and ownership catch up.

Cooper Kupp ($7,700): Kupp seems to have finally fallen behind Puka Nacua ($7,200) in the Rams pecking order, with the latter seeing more targets last week despite being (allegedly) limited with an injury. Both are too expensive for their role if they’re both active, though. However, Nacua popped up with a new injury this week and seems to be truly questionable. If he can’t go, I’m interested in Kupp in this potential shootout. The 4:25 start time makes it tough, but hopefully, we get some clarity before then.

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NFL DFS Tight End Picks

Stud: Brock Bowers ($6,000) Las Vegas Raiders (+7) at Cincinnati Bengals (46 Total)

I mentioned only playing Ja’Marr Chase with pieces of the Raiders offense above. That basically just means Bowers, who’s been the lone bright spot in the Raiders bad offense this season.

Bowers leads the team in effectively every statistical category, while leading all NFL tight ends in receptions and yards. (As a fun aside, he’s number two at the position in rushing yards behind only fake tight end Taysom Hill ($3,800)). If Bowers had two more touchdowns on the season, he’d be the overall TE1.

Touchdowns are somewhat high variance, though there aren’t many of them to go around for the Raiders. Still, they’re taking on a Bengals team that ranks 25th in fantasy points allowed to the position, so his odds are slightly higher than usual.

His role gives him a very strong floor, while any potential trips to the end zone give him a solid ceiling. He could be a differentiator this week.

Value: Will Dissly ($3,100) Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5) at Cleveland Browns (42.5 Totals)

Last week was a banner week for tight ends at various price points. This week, the best Pts/Sal option is Will Dissly. DFS is truly a new puzzle to solve every week.

With that said, we could do worse than Dissly. The Chargers have shifted to a slightly more balanced approach after leaning heavily on the run early in the season, with Dissly seeing 18 targets over the past two weeks.

He’s also potentially due for some touchdown regression, as he’s been held out of the end zone so far this year. It’s not a great matchup, but I’d spend $3,100 for his target share, no matter who the opponent is. I’m not exactly excited to click his name, but he’s an easy cash game salary reliever.

Quick Hits

Trey McBride ($5,800): On the topic of touchdown regression, Trey McGronk leads all players in receiving yards and catches without a touchdown on the season. The Cardinals have a solid 23-point total this week, so that could certainly change. He leads all tight ends in target share and, like Bowers, is a solid play even without a score, with a chance to break the slate with a touchdown or two.

David Njoku ($5,500): While the Browns receivers were the attention grabbers, Njoku is averaging 20 DraftKings points in both games this season without Amari Cooper and Deshaun Watson. He’s now fairly priced rather than underpriced, but he has the talent and connection with Jameis Winston to pay it off anyway.

Kyle Pitts ($4,900): As an unrepentant Pitts drafter this summer, I’ve enjoyed his breakout as much as anyone. Pitts has posted a positive Plus/Minus in four straight games, even as his salary grows each week. Similar to Njoku, he isn’t exactly a value, but he’s not too expensive either. Dallas has been softer against tight ends than wideouts, so he’s a sneaky bring-back from Cowboys stacks.

GPP Roster Construction

As is often the case, most of the strong GPP plays this week make sense only in certain contexts. For example, Chase is a great play — if and only if the Raiders are able to keep the game moderately competitive. (Also assuming Higgins misses the game.)

It’s a similar story for some of the running backs — Chubb and Hubbard are both fairly dependent on the game flow working out their way.

I also want to make sure to get some exposure to one, but not both, of Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley in as many lineups as possible. The Eagles offense is clicking right now, but it’s exceedingly hard for them to hit in the same game.

Essentially, the key to the week likely won’t be player selection but building rosters that paint a clear picture as a whole. Think about what has to happen for a player to have a ceiling outcome and how that correlates in the rest of your lineup.

I have some specific plays I’m building around in my SimLabs building blocks article, but the bigger takeaway is in the thought process needed to arrive at them.

Cash Games

This week, the crucial decision will likely be at running back. Alvin Kamara feels like a near-lock, given the matchup, but it’s wide open after that.

Builds with two cheaper backs (Chubb, Hubbard, Tracy) are an option and free up salary to fit both Lamb and Hill at wide receiver. However, Lamb isn’t a must-play in cash, so that salary could go to one more expensive running back. Bijan Robinson, Kyren Williams, and possibly even Barkley all project fairly well.

The decision at quarterback is likely either Geno Smith or spend up, but I’m almost certainly going with the former unless massive value opens up somewhere else.

Elsewhere at receiver, I’m grabbing one of the cheap Browns. If you’re not rostering Lamb, then Olave or London makes sense in the mid-range as well.

As I see it, tight end is pretty clearly Dissly since we need the salary. It’s a similar story at defense. The Giants are the cheapest unit on the slate and also have the best pass-rushing matchup. That’s hard to avoid.