Week 8 features a 13-game main slate that kicks off at 1:00 p.m. ET.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Stud
With all 32 teams in action on Week 13 — though six are playing in primetime games — we have plenty of choices at the top of the quarterback scale. Most of the league’s top passing offenses are on the main slate, including the Chiefs, Eagles, Ravens, and Dolphins. All of those teams are implied for at least 25 points, with only the Eagles less than 27.
That keeps all of their quarterbacks in strong consideration, but Lamar Jackson ($8,100) stands out when taking price into account. He’s a bit cheaper than Patrick Mahomes ($8,400), with nearly identical projections around the industry.
Jackson’s rushing ability is the key separator here, as he’s already picked up five rushing touchdowns through six games this season. Jackson has topped 29 DraftKings points in every game where he’s scored a rushing touchdown this season, while being held under 23 points in games without one. Quarterback rushing is obviously hard to project, but Arizona surrendered 59 yards and a touchdown on the ground to Daniel Jones, the only real rushing quarterback they’ve faced this season.
The emergence of rookie wide receiver Zay Flowers ($5,600) along with tight end Mark Andrews ($6,400) also makes for easy stacking with Jackson. They’ve combined for just under 50% of the targets in Baltimore when both are active.
Value
Editor’s note: After this piece was written, there were reports that Purdy may clear concussion protocol. Check the NFL Player Models for updates on projections if Purdy is able to play.
News broke on Brock Purdy being placed in the concussion protocol after salaries were released for Week 8. That means we’re still getting a backup price tag on Sam Darnold ($4,300), the next quarterback up for San Francisco.
The 49ers have a way of making quarterbacks into fantasy options, like with seventh-round pick Purdy last season — who began the year as the third quarterback. Now it’s Darnold’s turn after failing to stick with the Jets and Panthers over the past five seasons.
This 49ers offense gives Darnold better weaponry and better protection than he’s had at either of his previous stops. He still turned in some solid fantasy performances (particularly in Carolina) despite the tough situation. Now, he’ll have some of the premier yards after the catch players at their position to help him pile up points on easy check downs.
Darnold is very close to being a must-play for cash games, with only the big projections on some of the star quarterbacks making it worth of debate. He’s also playable in GPPs, thanks to his obvious stacking partners and the explosive Bengals offense on the other side. This game has sneaky shootout potential, and it’s easier to build stacks around Darnold and his receivers than try to fit Bengals stacks.
Editor’s note: After this piece was written, there were reports that Purdy may clear concussion protocol. Check the NFL Player Models for updates on projections if Purdy is able to play.
Quick Hits
Mahomes is the 1B to Jackson’s 1A at the top of the quarterback projections this week. The Chiefs and Ravens have identical 27-point Vegas totals, with both teams’ scoring largely driven by their quarterbacks. The Chiefs have the highest pass rate over expectation (PROE) in the NFL this season and are taking on the league’s 32nd-ranked passing defense by DVOA. That’s obviously a great matchup, though the Chiefs’ tough defense could turn this one into a blowout, limiting his ceiling somewhat.
It’s the exact same story for the Eagles and Jalen Hurts ($8,200), whose defense should run roughshod over the Commanders. Hurts is likely to put up a good score here but needs the Commanders to push the pace a bit to have a true outlier performance. I’m just concerned enough about his knee injury limiting his rushing/tush push upside to have him as a step below Jackson and Mahomes. It’s probably nothing, but when other factors are this close, it’s a reasonable tiebreaker.
Given his matchup and the other top option, it seems like nobody is going to play Tua Tagovailoa ($7,700) against the Patriots this week. His ownership projections have him outside of the top half on the slate, despite having multiple 30-point scores under his belt this season. It is a difficult matchup with the Patriots defense designed to stop the opponent’s top weapon, but I’m blindly playing Tua and Tyreek Hill ($9,500) stacks whenever their ownership is down.
With most of the field either paying all the way up or all the way down at quarterback, the midrange also provides some contrarian opportunities. There are a handful of options that are worth some exposure, but Trevor Lawrence ($6,200) is probably my favorite. The pass-first Jaguars (fifth in PROE) are taking on a Pittsburgh team allowing the second-most yards per pass this season. Lawrence has been better in real life than in fantasy this season, but he’s due for some regression. He’s thrown for just eight touchdowns in seven games, despite picking up over 1600 yards. This whole salary range projects similarly, but with Lawrence having the lowest ownership.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Stud
There’s Christian McCaffrey ($9,200), and then there’s everyone else. The last of the true workhorse backs who also has a significant passing role, he’s averaging a bit over four more points on DraftKings than the next-highest active player. On a per-game basis, he ranks top-five in carries, targets, and red zone opportunities on the slate.
All of which could see a spike this week with Darnold under center. The 49ers have been willing to lean on McCaffrey when needed, and having a backup quarterback would be an obvious opportunity. Especially when taking on the run-funnel Bengals, who rank 27th in run defense and 11th in pass defense by DVOA.
Of course, it’s tough for McCaffrey to pay off his massive salary from a GPP standpoint. He’s gone over 3x his Week 8 salary just once this season — but it was a 50+ point explosion. While another outburst like that is within the range of outcomes, the likelier result is a score in the mid-20s — solid but unlikely to win you a tournament.
For that reason, I’m more interested in McCaffrey for cash games. CMC leads all backs in median and ceiling projection by a solid margin this week.
Value
Breece Hall ($5,900) started the season in a timeshare with veteran Dalvin Cook ($4,600) whom Jets GM Aaron Rodgers Joe Douglas brought in to spell Hall as he recovered from a torn ACL. Now, Cook is reportedly seeking a trade, while Hall has taken over the bulk of the backfield duties.
In the Jets’ first four games, Hall averaged eight carries and 2.5 targets per contest. Over the last two, he’s averaging 17 carries and four targets. While it’s a small sample size, when coupled with the rumors around Cook’s impending departure — and the intuitive assumption that he’s working back from an injury — it paints a picture of an expanding role.
However, the pricing department at DraftKings evidently hasn’t seen that picture yet, leaving him priced at an appropriate level for a timeshare back. Volume is king for running backs, making that enough information to play Hall.
However, it’s also a strong matchup with the Giants, who rank 30th in rushing DVOA. The Jets are slight favorites here for their “road” game at Met Life stadium, so everything aligns to make Hall a top play at running back for cash games and GPPs alike.
Quick Hits
If you believe the smoke around Hurts’s knee is a result of some real fire — or that there’s enough of a chance to take some swings at it — then D’Andre Swift ($6,300) is an excellent play this week. The big issue with Swift is Hurts goal line ability severely limiting his touchdown upside, but Philadelphia may want to limit Hurts’s touches if his knee is an issue. Swift should have a solid workload as a seven-point favorite against the Commanders.
Isaiah Pacheco ($6,100) is tied with Hall and Swift for the best Pts/Sal projection in our models. He’s topped salary-based expectations in five straight contests, though his ceiling is somewhat limited by the pass-first nature of the Chiefs offense. The game with Denver could be a blowout, which raises his ceiling somewhat — though I still prefer to use him in cash over GPPs.
Since returning from suspension, Alvin Kamara ($7,200) is averaging a ridiculous 9.8 targets per game, nearly double any other running back. On top of that, he’s also chipped in more than 17 carries per contest. The Saints offense holds him back by their general ineptitude, but his dual-threat role makes him a solid option in any game script. A multi-touchdown game at his workload would break the slate wide open for $2,000 less than CMC.
Speaking of multiple touchdowns, Travis Etienne ($7,200) has three straight games with multiple rushing touchdowns. Some of those are bound to regress to the passing game (see the blurb on Trevor Lawrence above), but even those could go his way, too, thanks to his 4+ targets per game. Kamara has the better workload, but Etienne has the better offense.
He’s a GPP pivot from Kamara for me at lower ownership.
My least favorite option at this price range is Tony Pollard ($7,500). His workload has exceeded expectations this year, with an average of 20.8 opportunities per game. However, he hasn’t found the end zone — or topped 20 DraftKings points — since Week 1. More concerning, the efficiency hasn’t been there, as he’s averaging less than four yards per carry this season. He averaged over five each of the last two seasons as a change-of-pace back, so it might not just be bad variance.
Or maybe it is, in which case he’s a great option against a bad Rams defense.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Stud
We’re approaching the point where — much like tight end — this could just be a copy and paste from week to week. The clear top raw play on the slate at receiver is Tyreek Hill ($9,500), who’s averaging 28.4 DraftKings points per game this season. That’s five more than the next best player on the slate — or the same gap as there is between number two and number six.
It’s hard to overstate how valuable Hill has been as a fantasy asset this season. He leads all wide receivers in touchdowns and yards while ranking second in target share. Four of his seven games played this season have gone over 30 points on DraftKings.
With that said, he has a difficult matchup with the Patriots in Week 8. New England has historically schemed their defense around stopping the opposing team’s top offensive threat, and that’s been no different this season. Hill scored just 15 points when these teams met in Week 2, and they held AJ Brown ($8,000) and Stefon Diggs under 18 points as well (both well below their averages).
Hill could still get there, of course, but his odds of breaking the slate are considerably lower than most weeks. He’s also a tricky play for cash games, as another 15-point performance could tank your lineup. I’ll have some exposure if building around this game to be high scoring but approach with caution.
Value
One way to build around the Patriots/Dolphins game would be through Kendrick Bourne ($4,700). He’s emerged as the Patriots top wide receiver, with 18 targets over the past two weeks. His overall target share of just over 20% isn’t elite — but it’s extremely strong for his sub-$5,000 price tag.
He also drew nine targets the last time these teams met, with the Patriots chasing points most of the way. He turned those into just four catches and 29 yards, but he and the offense, in general, has been much more efficient in recent weeks. This is the worst pass defense by DVOA New England has faced this year, so it’s a good matchup for the passing attack.
While it’s possible quarterback Mac Jones ($5,000) turns back into a pumpkin and tanks the offense, Bourne’s combination of workload and likely game flow are too good to ignore at his price tag. He’s an excellent cash game play with some GPP upside as a bring-back for Dolphins stacks.
Quick Hits
The other receiver I considered for the value section is Zay Flowers ($5,600). The Rookie first-round pick seems to have taken over as the Ravens’ top wide receiver option, with an elite 27.98% target share, good for 11th in the NFL. Given the excellent matchup against the Cardinals — who rank 31st in DVOA against the pass — he’s a solid choice. Perhaps the bigger concern is the game script getting away from him, with Baltimore favored by 9.5 points.
Ja’Marr Chase ($8,100) trails only Hill in median and ceiling projections this week. His 12.2 targets per game leads the NFL, and his combination of downfield looks and close-to-the-line passes give him a solid floor and ceiling. It’s a tough matchup against a stout 49ers passing defense, but he can get there with his excellent workload.
The aforementioned AJ Brown is a solid pivot from Tyreek Hill this week, especially considering the $1,500 in salary savings. He’s the only player in the league averaging more air yards than Hill, and in in a much better matchup. We probably need the Commanders to keep things close for Brown to pay off in GPPs, but that’s just as likely as the Patriots doing the same for Hill.
With the Patriots potentially selling out to stop Hill, Jaylen Waddle ($7,500) could finally see his 2023 breakout. He’s fallen short of salary-based expectations every game this season but topped 3x his current salary four times last year. Notably, his best yardage total of the season was the first meeting with New England, despite leaving that game early with an injury.
The Cowboys passing attack is interesting here. They’re implied for 26 points against a bad Rams defense and have been inefficient on the ground, as we discussed. However, four players (including Pollard) have at least a 15% target share, with none over 22%. That makes Michael Gallup ($3,400) an obvious value with a role well beyond his price tag. However, CeeDee Lamb ($7,600) is a “pay up to be contrarian” consideration for GPPs.
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NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Stud
It’s not even worth thinking about Travis Kelce ($8,400) as a tight end anymore. Were he a wide receiver, he’d check in at third in both salary and median projections for Week 8.
With plenty of cheap wide receiver options that make sense this week, it’s certainly viable to pay up at tight end in all contest types. For tournaments, I’d have no issue going back to the Mahomes-Kelce stack that took down the Milly Maker last week. The matchup against Denver is near ideal for the offense as a whole and for tight ends specifically. Denver’s 1.4 Opponent Plus/Minus allowed to the position is the highest on the slate.
Kelce should easily lap the field at the position, with the only real question being whether he does it by enough to justify his price tag. I’m probably not getting there in cash, but will certainly have some exposure in GPPs. If doing so, I want to build around this game as a whole rather than paying up for Kelce by himself. That could mean Mahomes stacks or Kelce as a bring-back for Denver stacks.
Value
It appears I was a week early on Trey McBride ($2,800). The Cardinals rookie caught just three passes for 29 yards last week as he continued to share time with Zach Ertz.
However, Ertz is now on injured reserve, so it’s wheels up for McBride. His Cardinals are (tied for) the biggest underdogs on the slate, so we can expect a pass-heavy game plan against the Ravens. McBride also has plenty of talent. For more on that, see this section in last week’s article linked above.
McBride leads our projections and most around the industry in Pts/Sal this week and is a near-must for cash games. While he probably won’t win you any GPPs, at his salary, he won’t lose you any, either. A fluky touchdown (or two) from McBride could be just what the Ravens and Lamar Jackson need to stay aggressive, so he’ll be part of my Ravens stacks in tournaments.
Quick Hits
The only thing preventing McBride from being a lock in cash games is Connor Heyward ($2,600). The tight end/fullback hybrid is now the top tight end for the Steelers, with Pat Friermuth still out of commission. Heyward has seven targets over the past two weeks and projects just a bit below McBride at a cheaper price. I strongly prefer McBride, but if the extra $200 gets you an upgrade elsewhere, it’s worth the pivot.
Evan Engram ($4,500) stands out in the midrange at tight end. He has at least seven targets in six straight games and has topped salary-based expectations in five of those. That’s despite still being without a touchdown on the season. That’s a common theme for this Jaguars passing attack this season, as we’ve touched on. No tight end in the league has as many yards (or is even with 100 yards) as Engram without finding the end zone, so he’s due. He should also be somewhat contrarian, as the bulk of the field either goes cheap or gets up to Kelce.
It’s a similar thesis for Dallas Goedert ($4,600). He’s been inconsistent this season, with four games under 10 DraftKings points and two north of 18. Those two strong games came in the past three weeks, however. It’s also a good matchup against the Commanders, who’ve allowed the fourth most tight end points in the NFL this season.
Both TJ Hockenson ($6,200) and Mark Andrews ($6,400) have an outside shot this (and every) week of besting Kelce for the top tight end score of the week. While there’s not any particularly strong reason to think either will this week, tight end scoring is somewhat hard to project. Ideally, there would be a bigger ownership gap than we’re currently projecting, but the $2,000+ in salary savings are a factor too. Andrews probably makes more sense here as a stacking partner for Lamar Jackson, but some exposure to Hockenson is merited.
GPP Roster Construction
All of the top quarterbacks on the slate have fairly concentrated offenses, making them excellent stacking candidates. There’s little to separate them, so I’ll be building a few rosters around each. That includes the Dolphins against the Patriots, with Tua/WAddle stacks as a sneaky option.
Outside of those obvious plays, I want to build around the Rams/Cowboys game with the third-highest total on the slate. Both quarterbacks are reasonably cheap, though Rams stacks are tough, with Cooper Kupp ($9,000) and Puka Nacua ($7,900) eating 1/3 of the salary cap. We probably have to pick one or the other rather than double stack with Matthew Stafford ($6,600).
Another sneaky build-around is the Jaguars passing attack. They’re due for some serious touchdown regression across the board. Most of the field will be on Etienne and the run game, giving us leverage by attacking through the air. Calvin Ridley ($5,800) leads all players in leverage score in our models. I don’t think we need to force a Pittsburgh bringback, though punting to Heyward at tight end is worth a bit of correlation.
I like three running back builds this week, with all of McCaffrey/Pollard/Kamara/Etienne/Breece Hall having near-workhorse workloads. I’ll be mixing and matching between them while also sprinkling in a few others. Including Swift (with the Eagles defense), Bijan Robinson ($6,000) following last week’s letdown, and Derrick Henry ($7,600) who is going to pop off once or twice this season.
At receiver, outside of stacking options, I’ll be mixing in Waddle, Brown, Chase, and some of the cheaper options as one-offs. Brown is probably my favorite play of the bunch, but I have a good feeling about Waddle as well.
It’s also a strangely fun week for defenses. Philadelphia ($4,300) could break records for sacks against a historically bad Washington offensive line. Seattle ($3,400) is reasonably priced for a game against PJ Walker ($4,800), and Atlanta ($2,900) is facing a QB by committee. Fortunately, that means chalk is unlikely to form at defense, so we can mix and match at will.
Cash Games
The biggest question in cash games this week is to Darnold or not to Darnold. He’ll obviously be in the optimal projected lineup thanks to his salary, regardless of which projection set you use.
Rostering him provides a ton of salary freedom.
Editor’s note: be sure to monitor whether Brock Purdy clears the concussion protocol or not.
Personally, I’m leaning towards using that savings on McCaffrey and basically guaranteeing exposure to every 49ers touchdown. However, there are plenty of solid mid-range running backs, which would allow lineups to feature two top receivers or one top wideout and Kelce.
Darnold comes at a steep opportunity cost, though. With plenty of top quarterbacks projecting well, even a solid game from Darnold could leave lineups at a deficit. If rostering Darnold, I want some exposure to Jackson/Mahomes/Hurts through their primary pass catchers: Zay Flowers, Kelce, and AJ Brown, respectively.
The other option is to spend up one of those three QBs. From there, we have some midrange RBs in play and a cheap wideout or two. Unless I’m getting to Kelce — which is tough with a top QB — I’ll take the punt on McBride at tight end.
On defense, there’s an argument for getting all the way up to Philadelphia ($4,300) despite the price tag. It’s a near historically good defensive line matchup. However, Atlanta ($2,900) is probably the better play. They’re taking on the Titans, who are using a quarterback-by-committee approach in Week 8.
For a more in-depth look at each position, be sure to check out our positional breakdowns by Matt Martin or any of our other NFL content.
