Since we have two games on Monday, DraftKings is offering a two-game MNF slate including some big prize pools. There are a lot fewer players to choose from, of course, but we’ll still break down the top plays from both a GPP and cash game standpoint.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Stud: Lamar Jackson ($8,000) Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) at Tampa Bay Bucs (50 Total)
With Baltimore’s team total the highest on the slate by a decent margin, their primary fantasy options are all projecting as very strong plays. Jackson is the overall QB1 in fantasy scoring per game this season (discounting the one-game sample from Russell Wilson last night). He’s also taking on a defense that’s allowed a +2.5 Opponent Plus/Minus to quarterbacks on the season.
It doesn’t get much better than that. However, the salary is an issue. Jackson is $1,200 more expensive than any other quarterback on the slate, and this isn’t a smaller slate where you can comfortably fit all the strong plays you want.
The decision probably comes down to Jackson or his running back, Derrick Henry (more on him shortly). While their scores positively correlate to an extent, they do cap each other’s upside. Between the two, they’ve had five 29+ point games in six Baltimore contests. None have happened in the same game.
Tampa Bay is theoretically an easier matchup through the air, but it really comes down to the game script you’re building around. Jackson’s ceiling requires a somewhat close game, so it makes more sense when paired with a couple of Bucs bring-backs.
Value: Baker Mayfield ($6,800) Tampa Bay Bucs (+3.5) vs. Baltimore Ravens
For $1,200 less than Jackson, you can get the opposing QB in the same game. There are a lot of positives for Mayfield this week. He’s tied for the NFL lead in passing touchdowns, and his points-per-game average is just two short of Jackson’s. The matchup is similar as well, with Baltimore allowing the third-most points to quarterbacks and Tampa the second-most.
Mayfield also makes for some easier stacks, with the duo of Chris Godwin and Mike Evans accounting for a bit over 46% of his targets on the season. As a slight home underdog, the Tampa passing attack is in a near-ideal situation for passing volume.
The choice between Mayfield and Jackson comes down to how you’re approaching this game. A competitive game probably favors Jackson since his dual-threat ability means he’ll be driving the offense one way or the other.
Baltimore getting out to a lead early/through their ground game helps Mayfield since Tampa will be forced to air it out while chasing points. Both passers have similar Pts/Sal projections — all four quarterbacks on the slate do — so be sure to build intelligently around them.
Quick Hits
Kyler Murray: Murray has been wildly inconsistent this season, with two games of 25+ DraftKings points and four games under 16. He’s facing a Chargers defense that ranks first in opponent points per game on the season. That lowers the chance of him landing on the higher end of the spectrum but doesn’t totally eliminate it. He’s not a great play on paper, but he could pay off thanks to much lower ownership than Jackson/Mayfield.
Justin Herbert: Herbert is cheap at just $5,500 and should come in with the lowest ownership on the slate. He’s also facing a relatively bad defense. That’s about all the positives I can come up with. The Chargers want to run the ball, and Herbert barely has anyone to throw to. Salary is somewhat tight on the slate, but it’s not that tight, so Herbert is best avoided except in MME play — and even then, it’s thin.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Stud: Derrick Henry ($8,000) Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) at Tampa Bay Bucs (50 Total)
Like his quarterback, Derrick Henry has both the best projections and the highest salary at his position by a fairly wide margin. It’s been quite the season for Henry, who’s averaging more than 24 DraftKings points per game, with nine touchdowns through six games played.
Henry remains only lightly involved in the passing game, so he’s fairly dependent on the game flow for his fantasy production. It was a similar story in Tennessee throughout his career — but the Ravens are a much better team.
That means he often gets the requisite game flow to succeed and likely will again here. Playing Henry with Jackson is perfectly reasonable for cash games and smaller GPPs, but as noted above, they somewhat cap each other’s upside. There are only so many touchdowns to go around, even for the Ravens.
Thus, for larger-field tournaments where we need huge scores, you’ll probably need to pick between the two and correlate that with how you build around this game.
Value: JK Dobbins ($6,400) Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5) at Arizona Cardinals (44 Total)
One of the reasons I’m not especially interested in Herbert is because of the Chargers running their offense through Dobbins. He saw 25 carries and two targets last week in a win over the Broncos and should be the focal point here if the game script allows.
While rookie running back Kimani Vidal ($4,400) will mix in, there are plenty of carries to go around for Los Angeles. They rank 29th in pass rate over expectation and 30th in overall pass rate. As slight favorites, the likeliest game script allows those tendencies to continue.
Arizona has also been soft against opposing backs this year, with the only positive Opponent Plus/Minus number on the slate. Dobbins leads the position in Pts/Sal projection and is hard to get away from at his salary.
Quick Hits
James Conner: Conner is effectively a poor man’s Derrick Henry, with solid scores when he finds the end zone and disappointing ones when he doesn’t. As a slight underdog against a tough rush defense, his odds aren’t great this week. He’s not projecting for low enough ownership to be a good play this time around — unless you’re building around Arizona controlling this one.
Tampa Bay Backfield: Rachaad White will almost certainly play tonight despite his questionable tag. That means there’s a three-headed monster in Tampa, with Bucky Irving the theoretical RB2 and Sean Tucker earning a role after his Week 6 explosion. It’s unlikely any one of them will post a strong score against a tough Ravens defense.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Stud: Chris Godwin ($7,400) Tampa Bay Bucs (+3.5) vs. Baltimore Ravens
Godwin has emerged as the clear #1 receiver — or at least 1A — in Tampa this season. His target share is about 5% higher than Mike Evans’, and he’s picked up 18 more catches and 210 additional yards than his teammate this season.
That makes him an excellent play tonight, considering the likely game flow against the Ravens. Godwin’s role is strong enough that he’s an excellent bring-back in Lamar Jackson lineups. He’ll be involved even if Tampa gets out to a lead.
Mayfield doubles with Godwin, Evans, and Derrick Henry are even more appealing though. If Baltimore gets out to an early lead, all four players will likely see heavy usage. That stack is somewhat costly but could be a week-winner.
Value: Ladd McConkey ($4,900) Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5) at Arizona Cardinals (44 Total)
There’s an argument that the Chargers don’t really have a WR1 this season. Given their low throw rate and poor offense in general, there isn’t much passing production to go around.
On the other hand, McConkey has a solid 23% target share, with a price tag under $5,000. In what should be a relatively close game, that’s a valuable combination. Especially considering McConkey is a rookie and should continue to see his role and/or effectiveness expand this season.
Given the relative lack of strong, cheap plays, McConkey is an excellent addition to almost any lineup build. His bad games won’t kill you at his price tag, while his strong games will be massive values. He leads the position in Pts/Sal projection.
Quick Hits
Zay Flowers: Flowers’ 26.1% target share is third in the NFL and nearly double that of any other Ravens. He’s a lock in any Lamar Jackson lineups you build tonight, as he’s likely to pick up the biggest chunk of Jackson’s passing production. At $6,700, he’s cheaper than the Bucs wideouts and trails only McConkey in Pts/Sal projection. That also makes him a solid bring-back for Bucs stacks if you can fit him around Derrick Henry and the Tampa wideouts.
Marvin Harrison Jr: I don’t have much interest in Arizona’s passing attack against the Chargers defense, but the explosive Harrison could make that a mistake. Harrison is averaging 16.4 yards per reception, so he only needs a few to put up a big score. The problem is his $7,000 salary. It’s hard to find the money for him, assuming you’re building around the expensive pieces in Bucs/Ravens.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Stud: Trey McBride ($5,600) Arizona Cardinals (+1.5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (44 Total)
The other problem with rostering Harrison is that he’s not his team’s top receiver. That distinction belongs to McBride, who has narrowly edged out Harrison in targets and catches this year while falling just short in yardage.
He’s also considerably cheaper at $5,600 while playing a position where it’s much harder to find production. Given the Cardinals team total of 21.3 — the lowest on the slate — I’m not interested in doubling up on their pass catchers. That means McBride over Harrison is a fairly easy pick.
McBride is the overall TE3 in points per game this season despite having yet to catch a touchdown. That will regress at some point. If it happens this week, he’ll be a massive separator on the small slate, so I want some exposure.
Value: Cade Otton ($3,600) Tampa Bay Bucs (+3.5) vs. Baltimore Ravens
Otton is tied with the Chargers Will Dissly ($2,800) for the top Pts/Sal projection on the slate but brings way more upside. Besides the overall offensive environment being better, Dissly’s best game on the season was four catches for 26 yards.
Otton has topped that scoring in each of his last four games while averaging almost seven targets per contest for the pass-heavy Bucs. Tampa Bay is thin at receiver behind Evans and Godwin, making Otton effectively their third option in the passing game.
Which normally isn’t anything to get excited about, of course. However, the position is super thin on a two-game slate, and Otton is relatively cheap. The Bucs theoretically will throw the ball more than any other team tonight, making their #3 option a fairly valuable position.
Quick Hits
Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely: It’s never great when two tight ends from the same team are mentioned. Typically that means neither player has a strong enough role to stand out in fantasy, and that’s been the case here. Both are more expensive than Otton, with a combined target share similar to McBride’s. On the other hand, Baltimore has the best team total on the slate, so their odds of picking up a touchdown are strong. If either one is the only tight end on the slate to do so, they’ll be worth playing. I’m avoiding both in tighter builds but will mix and match them in GPPs — with a lean toward Likely.
GPP Roster Construction
As always, the key to these small slates is to be mindful of ownership and correlation when building lineups. It’s worth sacrificing a few points of projection in order to build a unique lineup, as “chopping” payouts is a huge drain on expected value.
With so few options, every starter is somewhat viable on the slate, as any of them could lead their respective position. The bigger edge is in thinking about what else would have to happen for that player to win a tournament.
That could be another member of their team also having a good game — or it could mean a bad performance elsewhere. Either way, think through all of the options when building here. SimLabs is a great tool for that, as it simulates the outcome of every player.
YOU MAY ALSO LIKE
NFL DFS Week 10 Millionaire Maker Review: Breaking Down the Winning Lineup
Daily Fantasy Football Week 11 NFL DFS Pricing Risers and Fallers on DraftKings
Daily Fantasy Football Week 11 NFL DFS Stacks and Picks on DraftKings and FanDuel
Daily Fantasy Football Week 17 NFL DFS Stacks and Picks on DraftKings and FanDuel
