We have an eerily similar setup to last week. Three of the 10 games have totals above 50, while half check in at 43 or less.
That means the field will likely concentrate heavily on those games. Finding production from the other ones provides big leverage, but they’re thinner bets. As always, it’s a 1:00 p.m. ET lock for the main slate.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Stud: Jayden Daniels ($7,600) Washington Commanders (-8) vs. Carolina Panthers (51.5 Total)
Amidst the usual NFL news cycle and line movement, one thing has remained fairly constant this week. That’s Jayden Daniels’ status as the top raw quarterback play on the slate. The Commanders rookie has topped 20 DraftKings points in five of six games this season. He’s also shown consistent improvement in his ability as a passer.
He also gets the best matchup of his young career in Week 7. The Panthers rank 31st in overall defensive DVOA and 31st against the pass. Their only saving grace is an offense bad enough that opposing teams haven’t needed to run up the score.
If there’s any team that the Panthers can score on, it’s the Commnaders. While their defense has improved slightly, they still rank 29th against the pass and could struggle in the trenches against the Panthers offensive line.
The Commanders have the biggest team total on the slate, and most of their production should come through Daniels. He’s an excellent cash game play if you can find the salary. For GPPs, he probably needs to be pushed by the Panthers to hit a significant ceiling. Consider pairing him with bring-backs from the Carolina side.
Value: Geno Smith ($5,800) Seattle Seahawks (+3) at Atlanta Falcons (51 Total)
The Seahawks somewhat surprisingly rank 1st in both overall pass rate and pass rate over expectation (PROE) in 2024. They also have the best offensive line matchup of the week in the passing game against a Falcons pass rush that ranks dead last in sacks and adjusted sack rate.
All of which makes this an excellent matchup for Smith, who leads our projections in Pts/Sal. Smith has hit 300 yards in half of Seattle’s games this season (with two more north of 180) and is averaging just under 20 DraftKings points per game.
That’s despite failing to throw multiple touchdown passes in a single game this season. While part of that is schematic — Seattle likes to run in the red zone/at the goal line — part of that is due to regress. Smith has 10 more red zone passing attempts over the last three weeks than Jordan Love ($6,900), yet Love has 10 touchdown passes in that time to Smith’s three.
Smith is some touchdown regression away from having massive upside and, at worst, has a solid floor against a pass-funnel Cardinals defense. He’s a safe cash game play with plenty of GPP upside in a game with a 51-point total.
Quick Hits
Andy Dalton ($5,200): Dalton is holding on to the starting job in Carolina for at least one more week. The offense has been much better with Dalton, and he’s gone 3x his Week 7 salary in three of four starts while 5xing it once. I point that out because those games were all against tougher pass defenses than the Commanders by DVOA. He has a chance for massive (price-considered) upside while providing leverage off the highly owned Jayden Daniels.
Jordan Love ($6,900): I mentioned Love’s 10 touchdown passes the past three weeks already, but that obviously keeps him in the conversation this week against Houston in a game with sneaky shootout potential. The problem with Love is that the Packers offense is extremely spread out, with no player seeing a target share over 20%. That makes it hard to stack him — but maybe we don’t have to. Love paired with a few pass catchers from the more condensed Houston offense is a solid way to approach this one.
Sam Darnold ($6,200): Darnold is taking on a Lions team that lost their best (and arguably the league’s best) pass rusher in Aidan Hutchinson for the season last week. Detroit has been solid against the pass this season, but much of that was predicated on pressuring the quarterback. Minnesota will have to stay aggressive against an explosive Detroit offense, so this is a solid all-around spot for the Vikings pass game — which is conveniently concentrated on their top wide receiver, making for easy stacks.
Matthew Stafford ($5,600): Stafford’s price tag is extremely low this week, but his production so far this season has been too. It could turn around soon, as he’s taking on a bad Raiders defense — and might get Cooper Kupp ($7,900) back. I have no interest in Stafford if Kupp misses again, but if we get encouraging news, I’ll have some single-stack exposure to the pair.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Stud: Kyren Williams ($8,100) Los Angeles Rams (-7) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (43.5 Total)
If Kupp misses — and probably even if he doesn’t — the driving force in the Rams offense will instead be Kyren Williams. Williams trails only Alvin Kamara in touches per game this season, averaging 21.8 per contest.
The Raiders defense is bad overall — but they’re worse against the run. Vegas ranks 28th in DVOA against the run, and with the Rams favored by a touchdown, they should be able to control this game on the ground and protect Matthew Stafford.
Williams has topped 20 opportunities in four of the five Rams games this season, with only the blowout loss to the Cardinals serving as an exception. He’ll also be involved in the pass game, especially given the state of the Rams receivers. He’s as close to a can’t-miss play as we have this week.
Value: Chuba Hubbard ($6,500) Carolina Panthers (+8) at Washington Commanders (51.5 Total)
Based on the combined adjusted line yards of both teams involved, the best run-blocking situation this week belongs to the Carolina Panthers. That’s great news for Chuba Hubbard, who’s picked up at least 90 rushing yards and four catches in four straight games.
The game script is a bit concerning, as the Panthers defense could let this one get out of hand early. That hasn’t slowed him down much yet, though. Their last three games were multi-score losses, and Hubbard has averaged roughly 19 points per game in those.
That makes him a fine cash game play, considering his price tag, and he leads the slate in Pts/Sal. He’s also an interesting stacking partner for Daniels. A game where Hubbard scores on the ground forces the Commanders to stay aggressive, creating some solid correlation between the two.
Quick Hits
Kenneth Walker ($7,300): Walker is tied with Hubbard and Williams in Pts/Sal this week while trailing only Williams in median and ceiling projection. As we touched on earlier, the bulk of Seattle’s scoring has come on the ground. Walker has four of those scores in the past three games. I worry a bit about rostering such a touchdown-dependent back, of course. That worry is mitigated by his seven targets per game since returning from injury to the pass-heavy Seahawks offense.
Tony Pollard ($6,300): Pollard was somewhat chalky last week against a bad Panthers defense and turned in a solid but unspectacular performance. Now he’s $300 more expensive, as a big underdog against the Bills. Personally, I don’t love it, but he’s projecting well. His Pts/Sal mark is tied with the above-mentioned players for tops on the slate.
Brian Robinson ($6,400): Robinson is taking on the Panthers, who so far this season have allowed the most points to running backs in the NFL. He’s also questionable after missing Week 6. On the plus side, he drew 21 carries in his last healthy game, and the Commanders are solid favorites here. His touch upside is limited by his injury, but he could get there on efficiency in a soft matchup.
Trey Sermon ($5,500): The closest thing we have to a cheap starter this week is Sermon, with the Colts’ lead back Jonathan Taylor already ruled out for the week. Sermon has been bad — he turned 18 carries into just 29 yards last week — but he still got 18 carries. That was against a stout Titans front that ranks first in adjusted line yards. This week, he draws a Dolphins team that ranks 18th. It’s a scary play, but he’s a $5,500 lead running back for a home favorite team.
Kareem Hunt ($6,000): Hunt isn’t the screaming value he was last week, but he’s still too cheap for his role. The Chiefs’ mid-season acquisition has 41 carries and four targets in two games as a starter this season. It’s a tough matchup with the 49ers, but on the plus side, they’re easier to run against than throw against. He’ll need the game flow to work out in his favor to pay off, but that’s well within the range of outcomes.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Stud: Justin Jefferson ($8,500) Minnesota Vikings (-1.5) vs. Detroit Lions (50.5 Total)
Wide receivers against the Lions has been a hit-or-miss proposition so far this year, with big games from the Seahawks and Rams and disappointing scores from the Cowboys (among others.) The path got much easier with top pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson going down for the season, though.
More importantly, Minnesota isn’t afraid to pile targets on Justin Jefferson. He leads the league in target share at 28.1%, with a solid average depth of target of 13.3 yards. Surprisingly, those have largely been catchable balls from the resurgent Sam Darnold, making his targets more valuable than those seen by other receivers.
All things considered, that gives us a concentrated offense as a home favorite in a dome, with one of the highest game totals on the slate. It doesn’t get much better than that for a WR1. Jefferson is a cash game priority and should be a big part of any GPP plans that include pieces from this game.
Value: JuJu Smith-Schuster ($4,000) Kansas City Chiefs (+1.5) at San Francisco 49ers (47 Total)
Despite plenty of high-profile injuries at receiver this season, we’ve had a dearth of cheap players at the position with bankable volume. Part of that is the nature of the position — QBs touch the ball on every play, RBs get given touches, but wide receivers have to earn targets.
With all that said, Smith-Schuster was second on the Chiefs in targets with eight in Kansas City’s last game, leading all wide receivers. With Rashee Rice on IR and Xavier Worthy ($6,400) primarily serving as a field stretcher, Smith-Schuster should see plenty of looks in the short and intermediate passing game.
He has fairly limited upside, but given the likely competitive nature of this game, his floor is relatively solid. Even if Worthy gets more involved following the Chiefs bye week, Smith-Schuster should see five or six targets at a minimum.
With the lack of value at other positions this week, that’s enough to get the job done at his salary. He’s an excellent cash game play, and I have some fringe interest in targeting this game in GPPs.
Quick Hits
Stefon Diggs ($7,700) and Tank Dell ($6,500): The Texans-Packers game has legitimate shootout potential, with both quarterbacks in the top five in passing touchdowns on the season (despite Love playing just four games). The Houston side is a bit easier to attack, as the passing game now flows through two wide receivers (and tight end Dalton Schultz). The trio saw 70% of the targets in the first game without Nico Collins and should see similar usage this week. Their salaries mean it’s hard for both of them to hit together, but mixing and matching as part of game stacks makes plenty of sense.
Drake London ($6,900): After a quiet start to the season, London has now drawn 44 targets over the past four weeks, one of which turned into a 36-point performance. He/the Falcons passing attack are somewhat game-flow dependent — they’d love to be a running team — but they’re facing an aggressive Seattle offense. London should see double digit looks again, while priced under $7,000 for potentially the last time. He leads all flex players in Pts/Sal projection and is a cash game priority for me. Secondary Falcons receivers are also projecting well, with three of the top four players in Pts/Sal coming from Atlanta (the fourth being Juju Smith-Schuster).
Diontae Johnson ($6,600): In four games with Andy Dalton at quarterback, Johnson has at least 19.8 DraftKings points in three of them. The lone exception coming against a tough (2nd in DVOA) Bears pass defense. The Commanders are the worst pass defense they’ve played all year, so it should be a better spot for Johnson. That is if the non-contact rib injury he picked up in practice isn’t an issue. Be sure to keep an eye on the news, as Johnson’s status is also key for the outlook of Jayden Daniels — if Johnson can’t go, the Commanders are more likely to play ball control and run out the clock.
Jerry Jeudy ($4,800): While targets from Deshaun Watson ($4,900) aren’t worth all that much, there’s suddenly plenty of them to go around in Cleveland. The Browns have a positive PROE on the season, and leading receiver Amari Cooper ($5,800) is now in Buffalo. Those passes have to go somewhere, and Jeudy is theoretically the next man up. I wouldn’t be excited to play him in the $5,000 price range, but he’s cheap enough to mix in.
Malik Nabers ($7,500): It looks like Nabers will be back this week, with the best matchup on the slate in Opponent Plus/Minus allowed. Nabers was WR1 in fantasy points through four weeks before his injury and should step right back into a big role. He might fly a bit under the radar due to his absence, but he’s an excellent GPP play. Don’t wait for a tougher Week 8 matchup against the Steelers to hop back on the Nabers express.
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NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Stud: Travis Kelce ($6,300) Kansas City Chiefs (+1.5) at San Francisco 49ers (47 Total)
Perhaps the biggest benefactor of the injury to Rashee Rice has been Kelce. The Chiefs’ star tight end has 19 targets over the past two weeks, spoiling the Chiefs’ plan to manage his reps early in the season and save him for the stretch run.
He’s proven he still has it, turning those targets into 16 catches for 159 yards. That’s led to two solid fantasy scores — and he still hasn’t scored a touchdown this season. That’s obviously going to regress at some point. That would make him a slate-winner if he pairs it with a similar yardage total.
The matchup against the 49ers is less than ideal, but Kelce has the talent to overcome it. Looking at their defense vs. tight ends is misleading anyway, given the Chiefs’ creative offensive scheme that moves Kelce around the formation.
It’s tough finding the salary to get to Kelce this week, but that makes him all the more valuable as a leverage play.
Value: David Njoku ($4,100) Cleveland Browns (+5.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals
I could copy and paste most of the analysis on Jerry Jeudy into this section, and it would still be true, as Njoku should also see a bump in usage following the trade of Amari Cooper. While it’s possible the Browns don’t get anything going offensively, Njoku might be their best active skill player in Week 7.
That’s valuable against a bad Bengals defense that ranks 25th in points allowed per game. It’s extra valuable at tight end, where we don’t expect (or need) much production to be comfortable with the result.
I prefer to go even cheaper for cash games, but there are not many viable options this week. Njoku leads the position in Pts/Sal with reasonable touchdown-dependent upside.
Quick Hits
Colby Parkinson ($3,800): Parkinson has had an expanded role for the Rams due to their wide receiver injuries this season, culminating in 13 targets after Jordan Whittington ($4,800) exited their last game with an injury. Parkinson’s value is tied to the health of Whittington and Kupp. He’s a solid play if one misses and an excellent one if they both do. Both are questionable as of Friday, with Whittington looking likely to play while Kupp is likelier to sit.
Kyle Pitts ($4,500): The Kyle Pitts redemption tour has been a slow build, with consecutive 70-yard games and double-digit fantasy scores. He’s finally become a real part of the Falcons offense and is a touchdown away from a true breakout. I’m not sure it will come this week, but the opposing Seahawks are the second-worst team on the slate in Opponent Plus/Minus to the position. That’s at least a sign in the right direction.
George Kittle ($6,000): The other end of the spectrum is Kittle, who’s been a fantasy monster largely thanks to his touchdowns. He’s scored five over his last four games played and is tied for the NFL lead in receiving touchdowns. While it’s hard to assume that continues, the Chiefs +1.9 Opponent Plus/Minus against tight ends is highest on the slate.
Noah Fant ($3,500): Fant is about as cheap as I can stomach going this week at tight end, barring any late news that opens up better value. His 8.9% target share is nothing to write home about, but given the Seahawks’ extreme pass-heavy nature, that’s worked out to a reasonable four targets per game. As with most cheap tight ends, he’s a touchdown away from returning decent value, with higher odds than usual, given the 51-point total in the game.
GPP Roster Construction
I’m saving my approaches to the 50-point total games for my SimLabs building blocks article. Instead, let’s use this space to discuss some other sneaky build-around games. I won’t be playing all of these rosters, but consider these as solid jumping-off points for your builds.
Texans-Packers: Both quarterbacks involved here don’t provide much with their legs. That means a shootout here probably brings multiple receivers to the fantasy promise land. Unfortunately, the Packers offense is extremely spread out. Thus, I like rostering Jordan Love while bringing it back with both primary Texans receivers. (Or two of the three if counting Dalton Schultz.) Love could throw four scores to four different players, while CJ Stroud will be focused on two or three.
Chiefs-49ers: This one is similar to the above in that one offense is fairly spread out (San Francisco), while the other is a bit more predictable in terms of targets. Fortunately, the spread-out offense also has a slightly cheaper QB in Brock Purdy ($6,400). Purdy paired with two of Kelce/Smith-Schuster/Hunt is my starting point. I don’t mind mixing in other 49ers (especially Kittle in non-Kelce lineups), but Purdy could get there without any one pass catcher coming along.
Eagles-Giants: This game has just a 43-point total. That means it likely won’t draw much ownership from the field. However, I want a small bit of exposure to Daniel Jones/Malik Nabers stacks. Nabers has a massive target share, and Jones typically scores a bit with his legs. We could pair that with Saquon Barkley ($8,100) and assume the Eagles play with the lead — or an Eagles pass catcher while banking on a shootout. Dallas Goedert is out, so DeVonta Smith ($6,900) and AJ Brown ($8,000) should be the focal points.
Bengals-Browns: I know, I know. The Browns offense has been terrible. However, Watson is just $4,800, and the Bengals passing offense is concentrated around Tee Higgins ($6,400) and Ja’Marr Chase ($8,400). Rostering Watson is about the only way to afford both Bengals wide receivers this week. It also correlates nicely, as it’s a bet on the Browns keeping up long enough for Higgins and/or Chase to put up big scores.
Cash Games
This feels like an old school “jam ’em in” week in cash games. What I mean by that is there are a few standout players with projections — and price tags — well above the rest of the competition.
Those are Jayden Daniels, Kyren Williams, and Justin Jefferson. All are at least two points clear of the field at their respective spots.
However, the lack of value on this slate means there are some tough calls. You can probably only comfortably play two of them — with Williams and Jefferson easier to fit. Daniels is the cheapest, but the best value elsewhere is at quarterback.
Which means I’ll be rolling with Geno Smith or Andy Dalton at QB. That gives the flexibility for Jefferson and Williams without having to roster terrible plays at other positions. You’ll still need one of JuJu Smith-Schuster or Trey Sermon to make it work, but it’s doable.
At tight end, I’m hoping to find the salary to get up to Njoku. If that’s not an option, Fant or Parkinson (dependent on the Rams receivers) are fine substitutes. My ideal defense is the Bengals ($3,300) — but I’d rather have the $800 by dropping down to the Giants ($2,500).
The G-Men quietly lead the league in sacks and adjusted sack rate, and the Eagles offense isn’t what it used to be. The Giants will give up some points but hopefully make up for it in sacks and turnovers.
