Since we have two games on Monday, DraftKings is offering a two-game MNF slate including some big prize pools. There are a lot fewer players to choose from, of course, but we’ll still break down the top plays from both a GPP and cash game standpoint.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Stud: Jared Goff ($6,400) Detroit Lions (-4.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks (47 Total)
Goff is the only quarterback north of $6,000 on Monday’s slate, so he falls into the “stud” category by default. His projection wouldn’t justify his price tag on a main slate — and it’s not even the top mark on the two-gamer — but that doesn’t necessarily make him a bad play.
Goff provides next to nothing with his legs, but he has an embarrassment of riches in the passing game. Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams are one of the top wide receiver duos in the league, tight end Sam LaPorta was the fantasy TE1 last season, and Jahmyr Gibbs is a high-level pass-catching back.
Guessing which one of those players has the big game is challenging, but rostering Goff gets you access to all of their receiving production. He and the Lions have the highest team total on the slate by a comfortable margin, making him a solid pivot from his opposing QB at lower ownership.
Value: Geno Smith ($5,900) Seattle Seahawks (+4.5) at Detroit Lions (47 Total)
Smith leads the slate in median projection, edging out Goff at $500 less in salary. That obviously makes him the leader in Pts/Sal projection as well, as the slate’s cheaper quarterbacks aren’t all that much cheaper.
The argument for Smith over Goff (outside of salary) is largely due to the matchup. Detroit has been a worse passing defense than the Seahawks this season and will likely be missing slot cornerback/safety Brian Branch, who’s arguably their best defensive back.
Plus, with the Seahawks as moderate underdogs, the conventional logic is that they’ll throw the ball at a higher clip. Smith has a solid trio of receivers in his own right, so he could certainly put up big numbers with Seattle chasing points.
Quick Hits
Tyler Huntley: Better known as “Snoop” the former pro bowler (somehow) was signed from the Ravens practice squad to take a shot at running the Dolphins offense in Tua Tagovailoa’s absence. He brings some rushing upside, plus he could always see screen passes to Tyreek Hill and De’Von Achane turn into touchdowns. That makes him worth a look as an alternative to the late-game QBs.
Will Levis: The case for Levis is due to his rushing upside, with 86 yards on the ground through three games. I’m not sure that’s enough to justify his poor passing though, as he’s thrown more interceptions than touchdowns this season. The Titans also have by far the worst weaponry of any team on the slate. I’m not going there myself, but neither is anyone else based on our ownership projections. That makes him worth considering, I guess?
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Stud: Jahmyr Gibbs ($6,900) Detroit Lions (-4.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks (47 Total)
Gibbs is in a near timeshare with fellow running back David Montgomery ($6,400) but has managed to outscore his salary-based expectations in all three games this season. He still sees solid volume due to the Lions’ run-first nature, but he really shines in the efficiency department.
Gibbs was a top-five back in fantasy points per touch in 2023. The Lions’ elite offensive line, combined with Gibbs’ passing-game work, explain that number.
Given their status as home favorites in the higher total of the two Monday games, playing at least one Lions back is essential on the small slate. With Gibbs involved more in the passing game (as well as hurry-up situations), he makes sense when building around this game being a shootout and/or the Seahawks forcing some negative game scripts.
On the other side, Montgomery makes sense if you think the Lions take over here. Both are solid options, but be mindful of the story you’re telling in your lineups that feature them.
Value: Tony Pollard ($6,000) Tennessee Titans (+2.5) at Miami Dolphins
Pollard’s first foray at being a lead back (from the Cowboys in 2023) was largely disappointing. He didn’t flash any of the explosive ability he had as a change-of-pace option, leading to his release from the Cowboys.
That’s changed in 2024, with Pollard averaging a solid 75 all-purpose yards per game. He’s done that despite plenty of negative game scripts for the winless Titans. Monday is their best shot at changing that, as slight underdogs against a Dolphins team on their third starting quarterback of the season. Miami also ranks 31st in DVOA against the run this season, making this an elite matchup.
Pollard is also fairly involved in the passing game, with 14 targets through three weeks. Targets from Levis are a bit less valuable than from a better quarterback, but it still gives Pollard a solid floor regardless of game script.
He leads our projections in Pts/Sal, narrowly edging out the Lions backfield tandem.
Quick Hits
De’Von Achane ($7,200): Given the expected offensive environment from the Dolphins, $7,200 is a fairly steep price for Achane. On the other hand, Achane was the most efficient back on a per-touch basis in 2023, with an ability to score from anywhere. It’s not the best situation, but he could break the slate with a big play or two, so it needs to be accounted for.
Kenneth Walker ($6,300): Walker is expected to return after missing the last two weeks due to injury. My expectation is that Zach Charbonnet ($6,200) has earned a continued role in the backfield moving forward, while Walker has his reps limited this week. That makes it tough to play either back, but Walker has the better shot at getting RB1 volume.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Stud: Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,200) Detroit Lions (-4.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks (47 Total)
Given their slate-leading team total, it’s no surprise to see a Lions player topping our projections at every position. That continues at wide receiver, where Amon-Ra St. Brown is a few points clear of his closest competition.
St. Brown needs plenty of volume to post a big score, making him dependent on the flow of this game. He’s arguably a better bring-back for Seattle stacks than a partner for Jared Goff. When St. Brown is hitting, the rest of the Lions pass catchers typically don’t get enough looks to be involved.
Still, even with the increased target competition from Jameson Williams ($5,600), St. Brown is still the alpha among the Lions receivers. He’s a high-floor play at worst, with volume-based upside if Goff decides to lock in on him.
Value: Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($5,500) Seattle Seahawks (+4.5) at Detroit Lions (47 Total)
JSN is probably my favorite overall play on the slate. The second-year wideout has pretty clearly moved passed Tyler Lockett ($5,000) as the WR2 in Seattle. He’s tied with DK Metcalf ($6,800) for the team lead in receptions at 17.
While he doesn’t get the high-value downfield looks Metcalf does, he’s got similar volume at a cheaper price tag. Crucially for this matchup, Smith-Njigba also predominantly plays from the slot.
Detroit typically covers the slot with safety/nickleback Brian Branch, who’s doubtful for Monday’s game. The Lions are thin in the secondary, making this a plus matchup for Smith-Njigba. He leads the position in Pts/Sal and will be a staple in my lineups regardless of contest type.
Quick Hits
Tyreek Hill ($7,900): Hill has struggled due to the poor quarterback play in Miami, with just three catches in each of the last two games. However, he’s still the most electric player in football.
Much like Achane, he’s too expensive for his likeliest outcome, but he has slate-breaking upside
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NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Stud: Sam LaPorta ($5,700) Detroit Lions (-4.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks (47 Total)
It’s hard finding tight ends capable of making an impact on full Sunday slates this year — it’s even harder in two-game contests.
Which makes LaPorta a very interesting decision point on Monday. He’s far too expensive for his likeliest outcome, but he’s also the highest-projected player at an extremely thin position. Last year’s TE1 has had a quiet start to 2024, but is easily the most talented player at the position on the slate.
The salary saved by going down from LaPorta to another option could help you upgrade at other positions, but the gap between top players at other spots might not be as wide. To complicate matters, LaPorta went down with an ankle injury last week, and while he’s expected to play, his reps could be limited.
I want to be over the field in my LaPorta exposure, but will still mix-and-match the position.
Value: Noah Fant ($3,500) Seattle Seahawks (+4.5) at Detroit Lions (47 Total)
Noah Fant is the only player with a higher Pts/Sal projection than LaPorta on the slate, narrowly edging him out with a much lower salary.
His 11.7% target share isn’t anything to write home about, trailing behind all three Seahawks wide receivers in the pecking order. Still, he has the best game environment at the position, as a slight underdog in the higher scoring game.
The position behind LaPorta probably comes down to touchdowns, and Fant has just one red-zone target all year. That limits his upside tremendously, but there’s not much to like about the other options either.
Quick Hits
Chig Okonkwo ($3,700): It doesn’t make much sense for Okonkwo to be priced ahead of Fant, considering he has just seven targets all season for a 6.4% share. What he does have is a touchdown, though, which boosts his scoring average. He’s about as likely to get another one as Fant is, which keeps him relevant at fairly low ownership.
Jonnu Smith ($3,300): Like Fant, Smith is his team’s top tight end but has plenty of competition for looks in a talented offense. I suppose there’s an argument that Tyler Huntley checks down to Smith more than Tua Tagovailoa did, but it’s hard to see that proving especially valuable even if he does.
GPP Roster Construction
As always, the key on these small slates is to be mindful of ownership and correlation when building lineups. It’s worth sacrificing a few points of projection in order to build a unique lineup, as “chopping” payouts is a huge drain on expected value.
With so few options, every starter is somewhat viable on the slate, as any of them could lead their respective position. The bigger edge is in thinking about what else would have to happen for that player to win a tournament.
That could be another member of their team also having a good game — or it could mean a bad performance elsewhere. Either way, think through all of the options when building here. SimLabs is a great tool for that, as it simulates the outcome of every player.
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