In addition to the Sunday slate, Week 18 features a two-game Saturday slate starting at 4:30 p.m. ET.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Stud
With news that the Ravens plan on resting their starters, including MVP front-runner Lamar Jackson, that leaves CJ Stroud ($7,300) as the only quarterback on the slate priced above $6,000.
It’s an important game for the Texans, as they could win the division with a win and a Jaguars loss or lock up a wild card spot with a win over the Colts. Indianapolis is a solid matchup for quarterbacks, ranking below average in points allowed to the position and frequently finding themselves in shootouts. The Colts rank 3rd in overall pace and second in situation-neutral pace, making this an excellent DFS game environment.
Not that we have much choice on games to target on the two-game slate. For that reason, Stroud is likely to garner massive ownership on Saturday. If rostering him in GPPs of any size, it’s extremely important to get unique elsewhere in your lineup.
Obviously, that’s not a concern in cash games, where Stroud is the best pick if salary isn’t a factor.
Value
Stroud’s counterpart, Gardner Minshew ($5,900), is also an attractive option this week. Both teams come into the game at 9-7, meaning the same playoff scenarios (more or less) apply to both teams. The Colts have leaned heavily on Minshew and the passing attack in negative and neutral game scripts recently and come into this game the slightest of underdogs.
The opposing Texans are also a major pass funnel, with a defense that ranks second in DVOA against the run but 22nd against the pass. In similar matchups this season (Titans, Falcons), the Colts have skewed extremely pass-heavy, and I’d expect more of the same here.
From a strategy standpoint, the discount in both salary and ownership on Minshew makes him a far superior GPP play over Stroud. Especially since Stroud’s production is likely to center around one player, while the Colts have multiple productive pass catchers — but more on that later.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Stud
The total in Texans-Colts is roughly a dozen points higher than in Steelers-Ravens, so expect most of the top plays to come from the former contest. That holds true at running back, where Jonathan Taylor ($7,400) leads our projections by a solid margin.
The Colts’ top back has 39 carries over the past two weeks since returning from injury but just one target in each game. That makes him extremely dependent on a positive game script in order to pay off his salary, especially against a stout Texans’ run defense.
That means lineups built with Taylor should also be centered around scenarios where the Colts control this game. I would have no problem playing Taylor alongside a Colts passing stack, for example, or with the Colts defense. Rostering Taylor is a bet on his volume and talent overcoming a difficult matchup and limited passing-game involvement.
Value
We’re showing a better value on Jaylen Warren ($5,400) than on Najee Harris ($5,600) this week, but “Steelers running back” is the best option in the middle of the salary range.
Both players have solid roles in the offense, with Harris handling most of the base-down work and Warren being more involved in the passing game. Harris’ carries directly correlate with the game script, as he’s used far more heavily when the Steelers are leading.
Warren should see a similar workload regardless of the game script, with more receiving work if Pittsburgh falls behind and more carries in relief of Harris in a win. How and if you play either running back should hinge on how you’re approaching this game.
If you think Pittsburgh, slight favorites against the Ravens JV squad, are able to control the game, then Harris is an obvious option. A closer game favors Warren since targets are considerably more valuable than carries on full-PPR DraftKings. I could also see a case for playing both together. They combined for 47 points last week, which is well over what you’ll likely need to win GPPs in a two-game slate. More importantly, a relatively small chunk of the field will play two backs from the same team in a single lineup.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineup using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Stud
The best two plays at wide receiver are the alpha receivers from each team in the AFC South matchup, Michael Pittman ($7,500) and Nico Collins ($7,600).
Let’s start with Pittman, who we have projected somewhat higher. He’s had a massive target share with Gardner Minshew, averaging over 10 targets per game over the last six contests. That number would likely be much higher had he not missed most of Week 15 with an injury and played a slightly limited role upon his return in Week 17. Before Week 15, he’d seen at least 11 targets in four straight games.
That’s extremely valuable against a soft Texans pass defense in what should be a high-scoring affair. He’s the best receiver play on the board, even at his cost.
With Tank Dell lost for the year and Noah Brown ($5,300) a non-participant in practice so far this week, Collins is coming close to the last man standing in the Texans offense. His usage is all over the place this season, but when missing one or both of Dell and Brown (and healthy himself), he’s averaged roughly nine targets per game. Given the disproportionate share of Stroud’s looks likely to go his way, I prefer rostering Brown for my exposure to the Texans passing offense.
Value
Steelers receivers George Pickens ($5,600) and Diontae Johnson ($5,100) are projecting reasonably well, though part of the projection likely factors in some key Ravens defensive players resting. Pickens has out-targeted Johnson 15-9 in the two games with Mason Rudolph ($5,400) under center and also has a deeper average depth of target (aDOT), which makes him the considerably better play this week.
Behind Pittman, the Colts have Josh Downs ($5,200) and Alec Pierce ($4,300). Pierce was the better fantasy performer last week, but it all came on one 58-yard touchdown catch, his sole target of the game. This makes Downs feel like the better play since he’s seen more targets in three of the last four games. However, Pierce played on all but one of the Colts’ 56 offensive snaps, while Downs was just above 60%. Given the higher projected ownership on Downs, I like Pierce as part of Minshew stacks.
Expect a run-heavy approach as the Ravens try to shorten the game and get out of there early with Tyler Huntley ($5,700) at quarterback. Still, they could produce a solid score relative to the price tags of their mostly backup wideouts. We have the best projection on Nelson Agholor ($3,300), but it’s pretty hard to say which players get the most run. That should keep ownership down, creating a huge opportunity if you’re able to guess right.
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NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Stud
As with most tight ends, Dalton Schultz ($4,200) has been extremely inconsistent but occasionally productive under the right circumstances for the Texans. Still, he’s the only tight end we have projected for double-digit points on the slate, so he’s worth considering.
My interest in him is heavily tied to the status of Noah Brown. If Brown were to miss, then Schultz could be effectively the No. 2 option for the Texans’ passing attack. Otherwise, he’s a tough click at his likely ownership in a difficult matchup for tight ends.
The wildcard here is Isaiah Likely ($4,800), who’s been on a tear in the absence of Mark Andrews. There’s a chance Likely still gets some playing time this week, with the Ravens unable to rest everybody (NFL rosters are only so deep). Andrews is apparently “eyeing a return” for the postseason, and Baltimore has a Round 1 bye locked up. If they feel good about a potential Andrews return for the divisional round, they could conceivably rest players at other positions and let Likely eat some snaps.
Obviously, we don’t know if any of that is true or how the Ravens plan on handling it. However, Likely could be a massive leverage play if he’s active and sees even a handful of targets.
Value
Pittsburgh’s Pat Friermuth ($3,600) is the other option projecting even remotely well this week. He’s a safe bet for four or five targets as a floor, with some efficiency-based upside depending on who Baltimore has active on defense. I like him as a potential pivot from Schultz, though the salary savings aren’t likely to mean much this week.
GPP Roster Construction
With only two games to choose from, essentially every player is worth considering to some extent. The important thing is to make sure you’re building lineups unlikely to be duplicated (or too heavily duplicated, in larger contests). Giving up a few points of projection in exchange for a unique lineup is massively +EV this week.
The other important consideration is making sure your lineup “tells a story.” That goes beyond simple correlation between players, especially on a small slate. Especially with a team like Baltimore that has little to play for in Week 18. Will they totally abandon the passing game, or use this as an opportunity to get some reps for lesser-known players?
Who will they rest on defense, and how does that impact Pittsburgh? I don’t know the answer to those questions, but make sure your lineups are all based on the same answer.
Cash Games
As always with these slates where the games are played sequentially, the key consideration for cash games is late swaps. Lineups should be built with a plan to pivot off chalkier players from the second game if you fall behind or to more popular options if you have a lead.
The easiest option there is pivoting between Stroud and Minshew in the late game. With the relatively loose salary structure this week, I expect Stroud to be far more popular. If you need to catch up to the field, pivoting down to Minshew (and ideally using that salary elsewhere) is a must.
It’s also important to know how to identify if you’re “down” following the early game. You could be currently cashing and effectively behind or out of the money and in good shape.
The easiest way is to compare your scores and PMR with players at or around the cash line. Beyond that, if you had relatively unpopular players post big scores or missed out on a good performance from a chalky player, those can inform your decision.
I’d also be remiss not to mention if you’re unable or unwilling to follow along and execute late swaps following the early game, it’s probably best to sit cash games out this week.
Good luck!
