Saturday of Week 18 gives us an interesting two-game slate, with all four AFC North teams taking the field. Assuming the Ravens cover as 17.5-point favorites in the first game, the second contest between Pittsburgh and Cincinnati matters only for the Bengals, as Baltimore clinches the North with a win.
Keeping those factors in mind will be important, as Pittsburgh could rest starters if their game is rendered meaningless.
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You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Stud: Joe Burrow ($7,500) Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (48.5 Total)
We have the projections between Burrow and Lamar Jackson ($8,000) extremely close, but for GPP purposes, I strongly prefer Burrow.
That mostly comes down to the game script. This is a must-win game for the Bengals, who need a win — and some help on Sunday — to stay alive in the playoffs. While Baltimore needs a win to clinch the AFC North, as 17.5-point favorites, they’re unlikely to need to stay aggressive throughout the contest.
Even with the later game being mostly meaningless for Pittsburgh (assuming a Ravens win), they’ll likely play hard and force this into a competitive game. That means plenty of passing from Burrow and the Bengals, who lead the NFL in pass rate over expectation (PROE).
The $500 in savings relative to Jackson is helpful as well, of course. Burrow trails Jackson slightly in median and ceiling projections but is a better Pts/Sal play. For my money, he also has the best chance of posting a “have to have it” score of any of the four quarterbacks on the slate.
Value: Russel Wilson ($5,300) Pittsburgh Steelers (+1.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (48.5 Total)
If it weren’t for the somewhat questionable motivation level from the Steelers, Wilson would be my favorite option on the slate.
He has his full complement of receivers back, is very cheap, and is taking on a Bengals defense that’s allowed the fifth-most points to quarterbacks in the NFL. On top of that, he’s a slight home underdog.
My expectation is Pittsburgh mostly plays this one out, if for no other reason than to play spoiler to the rival Bengals. Still, there’s a chance they’re less aggressive than usual, which might mean protecting Wilson.
That’s not enough to keep me off Wilson entirely, but it is enough that I won’t be building exclusively around him. He’s still a strong option, though, and he leads the position in Pts/Sal projection.
Quick Hits
Lamar Jackson ($8,000): Jackson is a near-lock to go for 20 DraftKings points but could have a hard time getting beyond that. With no chance for a first-round bye, I expect the Ravens to give their key players a good chunk of time off in the second half if they’re able to get a comfortable lead. That shouldn’t be hard against the Browns this week. Jackson probably accounts for a couple of touchdowns early before taking a seat sometime in the second half. That could still win you a GPP if none of the other quarterbacks have a big game, but it’s not my favorite way to approach the slate, especially at his position-leading ownership.
Dorian Thompson-Robinson ($4,500): The Browns are openly tanking by starting Thompson-Robinson over Jameis Winston. DTR has been terrible across two starts for Cleveland, averaging just over four yards per pass attempt. On the season, he’s thrown six interceptions and zero touchdowns. I see no reason to play him this week.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
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