The end of the regular season is upon us, with a full-sized 13-game slate starting at 1:00 p.m. Eastern. Most of the teams active on Sunday have questionable levels of motivation, so determining which starters will see a full workload is an important part of Week 18 DFS.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
Stud: Jayden Daniels ($7,800) Washington Commanders (-6) at Dallas Cowboys (44 Total)
In a normal week, Daniels would be pretty easily the best quarterback play on the slate. He’s averaging just under 23 DraftKings points per game and is facing the Cowboys. Dallas has allowed the most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season.
The challenge here is assessing the Commanders’ motivation levels heading into the week. A win means they hold on to the six seed in the NFC, but they’re locked into either the six or seven spot. All things considered, that’s not really an appreciable difference since, either way, they’ll start the playoffs on the road.
What that means is Daniels likely plays the majority of this game. However, it wouldn’t be surprising if Washington limited his designed runs in order to preserve his health. Daniels has made big strides as a passer — he’s thrown ten touchdowns in the past three weeks — but at his price tag, it’s still hard for him to get there without his legs.
He has the highest median and ceiling projections at the position, but it’s fairly close between the top four players. I’ll want some exposure to Daniels in case Washington plays this out as a normal game, but he’s not an entirely “safe” pick. Additionally, since we’re probably relying more on his passing production, you’ll want to stack him with at least one pass-catcher if rostering him in tournaments.
Value: Joshua Dobbs ($4,000) San Francisco 49ers (+4) at Arizona Cardinals (42.5 Total)
Starting quarterback Brock Purdy is done for the season for the 49ers with a bruise and nerve damage in his throwing arm. That means the “passtronaut” Josh Dobbs will close out the season for San Francisco on the road in Arizona.
Since the injury to Purdy came during Monday Night Football, Dobbs is still priced at the stone minimum on DraftKings. Dobbs had some solid performances last season with the Cardinals and Vikings, topping 20 DraftKings points five times in 12 games and running for seven touchdowns.
While neither team in this matchup has anything to play for, it’s certainly a valuable opportunity for Dobbs to show what he can do. Given the matchup with a mediocre Cardinals defense, he should, at a minimum, pay off his $4K salary. He leads the position in Pts/Sal projection by a solid margin.
His high-end range of outcomes could easily see him as the highest-scoring quarterback on the slate, making him an elite play. He’s a cash game lock and makes a ton of sense for GPPs, even at high ownership.
Quick Hits
Tyler Huntley ($4,800): It looks like Miami will be without Tua Tagovailoa for their must-win Week 18 matchup against the Jets. Miami needs a win and a Broncos loss to make the postseason, with both games happening simultaneously. Huntley scored 22 DraftKings points last week in his first start since mid-October and has another good spot against the Jets since this game means nothing to them. He’s a solid pivot from Dobbs for GPPs.
Baker Mayfield ($7,000): Mayfield becoming a top-five fantasy QB is one of the more surprising fantasy stories of the year. Now, in Week 18, he’s one of the few premium options with a meaningful game, as the Bucs need a win to lock up the NFC South. He has a home matchup against the Saints, the highest team total on the slate, and perhaps some extra motivation to feed his top wide receiver for statistical milestone reasons. He trails only Daniels in our median projections but with far less risk of getting pulled early.
Bo Nix ($6,400): Nix and the Broncos also need a win this week to clinch a spot in the playoffs. They’re taking on a Chiefs team that’s already locked up the #1 seed in the AFC and are ten-point favorites. I’m somewhat less confident than the market that Kansas City will rest too many starters (since they already have a first-round bye next week), and we wouldn’t want to spend this much on Nix against a full-strength Chiefs team. For that reason, I’m not especially interested in Nix, but I can see the argument. He’s projecting as a top-five option.
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