Week 18 features a 13-game main slate that kicks off at 1:00 p.m. ET.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Stud
The final week of the season is always a challenge. Besides our usual analysis of player health, matchups, and opportunity, we have to factor in how a team’s approach will change. Fortunately, we have two highly motivated teams with top quarterbacks playing this week, as the Eagles and Cowboys both have a shot for the NFC East crown.
That gives us both Jalen Hurts ($8,100) and Dak Prescott ($8,000) as solid DFS options in their respective games. Hurts and the Eagles take on the Giants as 5.5-point favorites, while Prescott and the Cowboys are favored by 13 over the Commanders.
We have them projected fairly closely, but there are a lot of factors to weigh. Hurts obviously provides a ton of value with his rushing ability but is facing a tougher pass defense and will likely be without one of his top wideouts in DeVonta Smith ($6,900), who’s officially questionable.
For Prescott, the likely blowout is mildly concerning, but his Cowboys are implied for nearly a full touchdown more. Additionally, Washington is the league’s worst passing defense by DVOA and ranks 31st in points allowed to quarterbacks.
All things considered, I prefer Prescott for tournaments. He has a higher ceiling and an obvious stacking partner in CeeDee Lamb ($9,300) if Dallas decides to run up the score. They’ve done exactly that a few times this season, including their 45-10 win over the Commanders the last time these teams met.
On the other hand, Hurts is a safer floor/cash game play thanks to being effectively the Eagles goal line running back. He’s extremely likely to account for the bulk of Philly’s scoring, which we can’t say about Prescott. However, he’s less likely to throw for three or more touchdowns or hit the passing bonus, giving him a lower ceiling.
Value
We have a rare starting quarterback priced at stone-minimum on DraftKings in Week 18. That would be Jeff Driskell ($4,000) of the Browns, who’s replacing Joe Flacco this week in a meaningless game in terms of playoff position.
The last time Driskell attempted more than 40 passes in a season was as the Lions backup in 2019, where he started three games. He played…like a backup quarterback, with a 1:1 TD:INT ratio and a sub-60% completion percentage. Rostering him this week isn’t really about his ability so much as the situation.
He’s taking on a bad Bengals pass defense (dead last in yards allowed per pass play) who also has nothing to play for at a minimum salary. It’s unlikely Cleveland throws the ball enough — or has good enough receivers to throw too — for a massive score from Driskell, but he’s an excellent value proposition for cash games.
He leads our models easily in Pts/Sal projection.
Quick Hits
The logic on Carson Wentz ($4,500) is similar to that of Driskell, except he’s a much more proven quarterback with at least one motivated receiver in Puka Nacua ($7,800), who has a shot at some rookie records. The drawback is a matchup with the 49ers, one of the league’s best defenses. Of course, San Francisco also has their playoff position locked up, so they’re unlikely to play all of their top defenders. I like Wentz as a GPP pivot from Driskell, thanks to higher upside and lower projected ownership for just $500 more.
Nick Mullens ($5,100) of the Vikings is projecting as the most popular quarterback on the slate as Minnesota takes on the Lions in a must-win game for the Vikings’ (thin) playoff chances. While this game is all but meaningless for Detroit (who would need a Dallas AND Philly loss to advance to the two seed), I expect the Lions to play this one all out. Of course, with their lackluster pass defense, that might be a good thing for the Minnesota offense. Mullens threw for over 400 yards and two scores when these teams met in Week 16.
On a similar note, don’t sleep on Jared Goff ($6,700) and the Lions passing attack. He’s a bit too expensive for his most likely range of outcomes, but he’s still a solid play if Detroit plays this game all out. This game is in Detroit, where Goff has been much better since joining the Lions.
Keep in mind this is not an exhaustive list of all the solid plays, as there’s a plethora of backup quarterbacks getting spot starts this week. Any of them could have big days relative to their meager price tags, but make sure you correlate them around game scripts conducive to that happening.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Stud
Another team we can expect to play all-out is the Tampa Bay Bucs, who control their own destiny in the NFC South but would miss the playoffs with a loss.
That means top running back Rachaad White ($7,600) is a safe bet for his usual workload in the best possible matchup against the Carolina Panthers. Carolina ranks 32nd in DVOA against the run and 28th in points allowed to backs on the season.
Which is great for White, who has a solid workload in almost any game script. He’s topped 20 carries in four of his last five games, with an average of four targets in each of those contests. That’s as strong of a role as any back in the league these days, with a matchup that should boost efficiency.
The Bucs are moderate favorites here and should thus be able to control the game script, allowing them to feed White 20+ carries. He has a strong shot at topping 100 rushing yards given the opponent and leads our models in median and ceiling projection.
Value
With Christian McCaffrey getting the week off and San Francisco resting most of the key passing-game pieces, their backup running back(s) are immensely valuable this week. The question is whether it will be more Elijah Mitchell ($5,800) or Jordan Mason ($4,600).
The prevailing thought is Mason will be the primary ball carrier, as Mitchell mixes in, even in games San Francisco is playing to win. However, 30+ running back carries this week is exceedingly likely, so we probably see both players involved to some extent.
Mason is the clearly “better” value on paper between his price tag and likely role, but I have some fringe interest in Mitchell as well. He’s ahead of Mason on the depth chart for a reason and could put up a big score on limited volume. Additionally, he’s projecting for far lower ownership.
With that said, Mitchell was limited in practice with an illness this week and could also get the week off, so be sure to keep a close eye on the news. Tyrion Davis-Price ($4,000) would be the next man up for the Niners and could also see significant volume.
Quick Hits
Tony Pollard ($6,500) and De’Andre Swift ($6,800) are two of the top starting running backs expected to see more or less normal workloads in the season’s final week. That doesn’t mean they’re necessarily good plays, but both are safe bets for their usual production. This hasn’t been great for either player — Pollard’s been inefficient, and Swift is frequently vultured for touchdowns by his quarterback. Still, both have strong matchups, and their teams may be more interested in protecting their star quarterbacks if they control their games as expected.
Similarly, both Lions backs Jahmyr Gibbs ($6,700) and David Montgomery ($6,300) should see close to their normal workloads. I wouldn’t be surprised if Detroit leaned more heavily on Montgomery, though, especially in a positive game script. Detroit has taken it easy on Gibbs for much of the season, and it would make sense to keep him fresh for the playoffs, even if they play their starters heavily.
I don’t love the matchup with the Titans, but it’s a must-win game for the Jags and Travis Etienne ($7,300), which could mean another big workload, particularly if Trevor Lawrence is unable to go for a second straight week. Etienne saw 18 touches last week in the Jaguars’ blowout over the Panthers despite barely playing in the fourth quarter. The game with the Titans is lined much closer (3.5-point spread), so there probably won’t be as much opportunity to rest Etienne.
Like at quarterback, there’s also a slew of backup running backs expected to see elevated workloads this week. However, I’d be a bit more cautious with rushers. Unlike at quarterback, most teams will rotate in multiple players throughout the game, so your favorite fill-in might still only see a dozen or so touches. Which is awesome in the $4,000 range but not exactly a guarantee of a big score, depending on efficiency.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Stud
There’s CeeDee Lamb ($9,300), and then there’s everyone else at wide receiver. The Cowboys star wideout is coming off his third 40-point game of the season last week and now has an even better matchup in a game Dallas is likely to play to win.
On top of that, he’s an ideal stacking partner for Dak Prescott, with enough value at other positions to make fitting them both fairly comfortable. Or, you could bank on Lamb (again) accounting for most of Prescott’s production and roster another quarterback.
Lamb leads our median and ceiling projections by more than five points, and is a borderline must-play on a relatively thin week for receivers. Don’t overthink this one.
Value
The best wide receiver value is “San Francisco” wideout, but it’s even more difficult to pick between them than it is at running back. We have Ronnie Bell ($3,200) projected as the leader for the 49ers, but other projections have Chris Conley ($3,000) as the better option, and Willie Snead ($3,000) is close.
It’s very hard to project which, if any, of the trio stand out. San Francisco was heavily concentrated on top wideouts Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel all year, with no clear third option. Even if there were, it’s probable that a less-used player would still be more involved this week.
Conley is yet to see a target this year, but is (or was) a downfield burner with excellent speed numbers when he was drafted in 2015:
That gives him the best shot, on paper, of a big play/game, given that Bell and Snead are slower, more possession-type wide receivers. They probably have a higher floor for that reason, but it’s largely a guessing game.
Quick Hits
I keep coming back to the Vikings-Lions game, where Justin Jefferson ($8,500) and Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,600) have the best chance to dethrone Lamb for the slate’s top score. They scored 29 and 31 points, respectively, in their last meeting two weeks ago, and not much has changed for either team since then. Jefferson is probably the safer bet, though, as Detroit has less to play for other than a spoiler role against a divisional rival.
We mentioned him with his quarterback, but Puka Nacua ($7,800) could be chasing some rookie records this week. Unfortunately, he’s just four catches and 29 yards away from rookie bests in both categories. Odds are he takes a seat after accomplishing both, but if one or two of those four catches goes for a long touchdown, that’s enough for him to post a big score.
I like Mike Evans ($7,400) as a sleeper this week for the Bucs. He’s been quietly very good this season, and Tampa has one of the best offensive line matchups on the slate, which is important for a downfield receiver like Evans. With this being a must-win for the Bucs, he should see his usual workload.
Of course, there’s a handful of cheap receivers projecting well this week, but it’s perhaps the riskiest position to go that route. Backup receivers will have backup quarterbacks throwing them the ball, with resting teams likely to skew run-heavy in order to shorten the game. I’m more interested in young players on eliminated teams who are trying to put some good plays on film than backups for playoff teams, but consider the motivation and game flow before rostering any players of this kind.
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NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Stud
The top tier at tight end consists of two players, Sam LaPorta ($6,200) and Jake Ferguson ($4,900). They project similarly in both ours and most other projection systems, with Ferguson obviously being a better value at a much cheaper price tag.
The Lions’ rookie has been considerably more explosive, leading Ferguson in average depth of target (aDOT), target share, and touchdowns this season. However, he’s also dealing with an ankle injury suffered last week, so he could potentially see limited reps for Detroit. Based on how Lions coach Dan Campbell typically approaches things, that’s somewhat unlikely — but would arguably be the wiser move.
This makes Ferguson the safer choice, as there’s little risk Dallas takes any chances here. Naturally, that isn’t exactly a secret, with Ferguson projecting as one of the more popular tight ends on the slate.
All of this makes LaPorta a very intriguing GPP pivot, especially considering how loose salary is this week. For cash games and tighter builds, Ferguson is pretty obviously the better option, though.
Value
The Vikings unfortunately lost TJ Hockenson for the season two weeks ago in Detroit. But perhaps we should say, fortunately, for DFS reasons, Johnny Mundt ($3,000) steps into a starting role at a cheap price tag.
It’s an excellent setup for Mundt. He’s priced like the Week-18 backups that fill the slate but on a team that will be playing to win and throwing early and often. He also has a solid matchup against a leaky Lions pass defense. Last week, he saw seven targets in a similar role.
All of which makes him the best on-paper play on the slate. He’s an excellent cash game option with the best Pts/Sal projection at the position. He’s fine for tournaments as well, though I’d rather pivot to a less popular option unless I needed the salary.
Quick Hits
My interest in Dallas Goedert ($5,100 heavily hinges on the health of Eagles wideout Devonta Smith. Despite playing different positions, Goedert and Smith typically cannibalize each other’s production, as they work similarly over the middle routes. Philly should be playing this one straight up, so keep an eye on their injury report and consider going heavy on Goedert if Smith isn’t able to go.
Even in the last game of a lost season, the Chargers have to throw the ball at least a few times, right? With all of Mike Williams, Keenan Allen, and Josh Palmer either already ruled out or likely to be, that might mean Gerald Everett ($3,900) becomes their top passing game option. He’s seen at least eight targets in his last four and is facing a Chiefs defense that is resting key starters.
Jacksonville also could be extremely thin at wideout, which is good news for Evan Engram ($5,400) against the pass-funnel Titans. He has two games in the last month with double-digit targets, giving him slate-breaking potential if he can find his way into the end zone.
GPP Roster Construction
The big decision point this week is how heavily you want to lean in to back up players at various positions. It requires a ton of guesswork, as opportunity doesn’t always turn into production, especially in the small sample size of a single week of football.
The +EV way to play it is probably to focus on lesser-owned players — both backups and starters — and bank on the field being overconfident in who they can project for production. As an example, two of the most popular running backs should be Jordan Mason (backup) and starter Tony Pollard. By pivoting to less popular backups like Pierre Strong ($4,000) and less popular starters like David Montgomery, you get a ton of leverage over the field.
We probably don’t need to get unique everywhere, but you get the idea. My favorite builds this week feature a popular stack (Prescott and Lamb) paired with sneaky one-offs or vice versa.
This is also a great week to lean into SimLabs, as it can handle some of the complicated decisions around weighing ownership against projection for you. I’d wait until at least Sunday morning, though, as there’s likely to be a ton of late news that significantly changes both inputs this week.
Cash Games
Full disclosure: despite being mostly a cash game player, I typically take the season’s final week off. I’ve never been good at the last-minute tweaking required to handle late news, nor do I enjoy parsing through coach speak about players’ workloads.
With that said, if playing this week, I prefer to spend up for the top players at most positions while supplementing with value when available. You can easily fit one of Dak Prescott or Hurts with CeeDee Lamb and Rachaad White, thanks to the values at other spots.
Jordan Mason is a free square this week, if for no other reason than the fact that 90% of cash lineups will have him. I’d rather fail with the rest of the field than get buried trying to get too cute.
If playing Hurts over Dak, I’ll probably stick with Jake Ferguson at tight end, which hedges the Prescott fade nicely with his two top passing game targets. Otherwise, Mundt is the best option for the salary relief alone.
Defense is also interesting this week. Do we think the Chargers’ pass rush has a field day against the Chiefs’ backups? If so, LA Chargers ($2,800) is the top option. I think I prefer teams that need the win, facing teams that don’t, though. In that case, Green Bay ($3,100) in a must-win game against a bad Bears offensive line is the better option.
It’s also an important week to be ready to late swap in cash. Seven of the 13 games are in the late window, some of which could have shifting motivation depending on early results. This is another slate where I’d advise not playing if you aren’t going to be around to make the necessary changes, just like on Saturday. Check out the cash game section of that piece for more explanation on how I approach late swaps in cash games.
For a more in-depth look at each position, be sure to check out our positional breakdowns by Matt Martin or any of our other NFL content.
