The NFL’s wild Week 17 scheduling means we have a three-game Saturday slate, starting at 1:00 p.m. ET and running all day until 8:15 p.m. ET between the Rams and the Cardinals.
The three-game slates with no overlapping games make late swaps extremely important, while it’s also crucial to focus on keeping your lineup unique to avoid being duplicated.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Stud: Joe Burrow ($7,200) Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) vs. Denver Broncos (49.5 Total)
The best game on Saturday is likely to be the 4:30 p.m. matchup between the Broncos and the Bengals. Denver can clinch a playoff berth with a victory, while Cincinnati needs a win (and some help) to keep their own hopes alive.
It’s also a great matchup between the Bengals’ explosive passing attack and the Broncos’ strong secondary. Denver has held quarterbacks to the fifth-fewest DraftKings points this season, but Burrow is averaging an elite 23.6 points of his own.
Typically, matchups like this favor the offense overall, especially with Cincinnati’s defense being bad enough that Denver is likely to push the pace. The 49.5 game total is evidence of that, and the Bengals team total is the highest on the board.
Burrow is highly likely to get his, but that could mean a score around 20 or well over 30. At his price point, you need the latter. For that to happen, he’ll need some scoring from the Broncos side to push him. However, he could still end up as a fine cash game play, even in a lower-scoring contest.
Burrow leads the position in median and ceiling projection on Saturday.
Value: Kyler Murray ($6,000) Arizona Cardinals (+7) at LA Rams (47.5 Total)
We have virtually identical projections between Murray and Justin Herbert ($5,900), making it a tough call for the better value option. However, pending any more injury news, my lean is towards Murray.
Running backs James Conner ($7,400) and Trey Benson ($4,900) are both banged up for Arizona. Depending on their status, that could push Arizona to the passing attack, even early in the game. The fact that they’re seven point underdogs also should encourage more passing, of course.
While the Chargers have to travel across the country to play outside in Foxborough, this game is indoors in Los Angeles. That makes it easier for the Cardinals passing attack than the Chargers.
Of course, Arizona has little left to play for at this point, so if you think they’ll be taking it would make sense to pivot to Herbert. I don’t necessarily expect that to be the case — at least not enough to impact Murray’s stat line — but we need to consider motivation for teams that have already been eliminated.
Murray and Herbert are tied for the lead in Pts/Sal projection on the slate.
Quick Hits
Matthew Stafford ($5,700): Stafford hasn’t been needed much in recent weeks. The Rams have won consecutive games in which they held their opponents to single-digit points, with Stafford averaging 23 pass attempts in those games. If you think Arizona can push the scoring, Stafford could be a strong value at his price point. However, that likely means Murray had an even bigger day. It’s hard to paint a picture where Stafford helps you win a GPP, so I’ll get my Rams exposure through his pass catchers.
Bo Nix ($6,200): We have Nix projecting for the second-lowest ownership at the position, which makes him my favorite tournament option if it holds. Denver is taking on a Bengals team that ranks 29th in points allowed to quarterbacks, while Denver has everything to play for as a slight underdog. Denver’s concentrated passing attack also makes stacks easy, with obvious bring-backs from the Cincinnati side.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
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