We have another two-game slate this week, this time on Christmas Day. Featuring the same four teams from last week’s Saturday slate, we start with Chiefs-Steelers at 1:00 p.m. ET, followed by Ravens-Texans at 4:30 p.m. ET.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Stud: Lamar Jackson ($8,000) Baltimore Ravens (-5.5) at Houston Texans (46.5 Total)
Just like on Saturday, Jackson is a cut above the rest of the quarterbacks in both projections and salary on the short slate. Last time, he put up a solid 21.48 points against a tough Steelers defense. That wasn’t a bad score by any means, but not enough to truly separate at his price point.
This week, he draws another tough matchup against the Texans. They’re the league’s best defense by overall DVOA, ranking first against the pass and third against the run. Of course, the real issue isn’t whether Jackson can move the ball. It’s whether the opposing offense will compel him to stay aggressive.
Ordinarily, an explosive Texans passing attack against a pass funnel Ravens defense would be a solid setup. However, with Houston losing both Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs for the season, I’m not so sure.
Jackson will almost certainly get to 20 points on DraftKings regardless of the game script, making him a fine cash game play. For GPPs, he’s highly dependent on Houston pushing the scoring. Given the spread in this one, I wouldn’t bet on it. That is, unless you’re stacking some Texans pieces on the other side and expecting them to find success.
Value: CJ Stroud ($6,000) Houston Texans (+5.5) vs. Baltimore Ravens (46.5 Total)
That discussion brings us to Stroud, who’s tied for the lead in Pts/Sal projection at the time of writing. Stroud continues to miss the mark from a price-considered standpoint. The last time he finished with a positive Plus/Minus score was Week 4. However, this is about as perfect of a matchup as there can be from both a game script and opponent standpoint.
The Ravens are among the top four teams in the NFL in opponent pass play rate, pass rate over expectation, and DK points allowed to quarterbacks. Plus, this game has the higher total of the two on Christmas, so we should probably start here.
Of course, the problem is with who Stroud has available to throw to. With Dell and Diggs out, there’s an argument that we could capture most of Stroud’s production through Nico Collins ($8,300) and free up the quarterback spot.
That’s my preferred method of attack for GPPs here, but there’s certainly a case to be made for Stroud stacks with either a tight end or a cheaper wide receiver as well.
Quick Hits
Patrick Mahomes ($6,500): Mahomes saved his (fantasy) day last week with a rushing touchdown, assuaging any concern about his injured ankle. It’s hard to bank on that happening again, but Mahomes should still get his through the air against a Steelers team that also faces a high pass rate. As only a three-point favorite, the Chiefs will likely stay aggressive throughout this one, and they seem to have finally figured out their offensive line issues. Like Jackson, my interest in Mahomes is restricted to lineups with Steelers bring-backs where we’re betting on a shootout.
Russell Wilson ($5,500): Wilson hasn’t paid off his salary since losing George Pickens ($6,600), who is listed as questionable this week. I don’t see that changing here against a tough Chiefs passing defense, even if Pickens does return. I will certainly be staying away without Pickens and will only have a small amount of Wilson if Pickens is back.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
YOU MAY ALSO LIKE
Week 2 NFL DFS QB Picks Breakdown: Derek Carr Week?
Week 2 NFL DFS Cheat Sheet: Top Picks, Stacks, Lineup Optimizer Settings, Leverage Plays, More
Week 9 NFL DFS Cheat Sheet: Top Picks, Stacks, Values, Leverage Plays, Simulations, More
NFL DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown (October 21) for Ravens vs. Buccaneers Monday Night Football
