Week 16 features not one, not two, but three multi-game DFS slates over the Christmas weekend. The first of those — an ugly two-gamer featuring three backup quarterbacks — kicks off Saturday at 4:30 p.m. ET.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Stud
Three of the four teams on this slate are missing their original starters, leaving only Josh Allen ($8,100) remaining. Allen is the overall QB1 in fantasy this season in nearly any scoring format, averaging over 25 DraftKings points per game thanks to 37 total touchdowns passing and throwing.
He’s taking on a Chargers team that’s allowed some massive quarterback scores on the season, thanks to their porous defense and ability to keep pace in shootouts. However, that scoring has mostly dried up due to the Chargers own offensive struggles. Buffalo is a 12-point favorite here and showed a willingness to lean on the run game last week in an easy win over the Cowboys.
In that game, Allen attempted just 15 passes as the Bills cruised to a 31-10 victory. Weather played a part in that outcome, but it still wouldn’t be shocking to see Buffalo ease off the gas a bit if they get out to an early lead. That gives Allen a very strong median projection but caps his upside somewhat.
The theoretical limit to his upside coupled with his likely massive ownership projection has me wary of him in GPPs — but he’s obviously an extremely solid cash game option.
Value
How much salary do you need? That’s the bigger question when picking amongst the cheaper quarterbacks on Saturday, as they’re all priced relatively appropriately. Jake Browning ($6,100) has been awesome through three weeks as a starter but draws a tough matchup with the Steelers in Pittsburgh. They held him under 13 DraftKings points in his first game as the starter. He’s also going to be without Ja’Marr Chase, an even bigger problem for the Bengals passing attack.
Easton Stick ($5,500) put together a solid fantasy game in garbage time against the Raiders last week. Now, he has a much tougher test against a motivated Bills team with a tough passing defense. He could pay off his salary on dump-offs to Keenan Allen ($7,900) and Austin Ekeler ($7,200), but it’s hard to see him breaking the slate.
Finally, we come to Mason Rudolph ($4,800). Rudolph is cheap, but he’s never played well in limited NFL opportunities. He does have the easiest matchup of the bunch against a soft Bengals defense — but Pittsburgh almost certainly wants to lean on the run here.
If fading Allen at quarterback this week, my plan is to build lineups that can win in spite of my quarterback selection, then roster whoever fits in under the salary cap.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Stud
James Cook ($6,900) has somewhat suddenly taken over the lead role in the Bills backfield, with a massive 25-carry 39.10-point performance in Week 15. He also saw a 20% target share — though that amounted to just three targets with the Bills keeping the ball on the ground.
We don’t need to worry much about his passing-game role this week, with the Bills as heavy favorites against a team that’s bad defensively against both the pass and the run. Buffalo should be able to win this game however they choose, with the bigger concern Cook getting some series off if it turns into a blowout.
I like pairing Cook with Allen in cash games, thereby locking in the vast majority of the Bills’ non-garbage time production. Like Allen, his ownership makes him a bit of a tougher sell for GPPs, but he’s still a strong play there.
The other high-priced back is Austin Ekeler ($7,200), who’s been a major fantasy disappointment this season. I don’t see that changing this week, and I would only play him as part of stacks built around Easton Stick, in hopes that he takes a screen pass (or two) to the house.
Value
It’s a strong on-paper matchup for the Steelers’ two-headed backfield monster of Jaylen Warren ($5,400) and Najee Harris ($5,000). They’re taking on the Bengals, who rank 29th in DVOA against the run on the season. Of course, picking between them is the problem. Harris tends to get about 65% of the carries, while Warren sees more of the passing game work. For that reason, Warren makes more sense if building around scenarios where the Bengals find success (as a Browning stack bring-back, for example) while Harris could be paired with the Steelers defense.
Chase Brown ($4,900) saw nearly half of the Bengals carries last week and the same number of targets as Joe Mixon ($6,800) in a close Bengals win. The spread here points to a similar game flow, making Brown an interesting option at his price point. I prefer him to Mixon in the Bengals backfield, as it’s hard to justify spending $1,900 more in salary for just a few extra projected carries.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineup using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Stud
By virtue of having the only starting quarterback throwing him the ball, I guess it’s Stefon Diggs ($8,700). He has the best projections on the slate, though his salary makes him a bit trickier to fit on this two-game slate.
On the one hand, it’s pretty unlikely that Diggs will do enough to pay off his salary by normal standards. On the other, with so little scoring to go around on Saturday, 17 or so points might just be enough to win the slate. Still, Diggs has hit that mark just twice in the Bills’ last seven games — and both were losses.
Diggs is still seeing his usual borderline-elite target share, with almost 30% of the Bills’ passing attempts heading his way. The problem is the decline in their total passing volume — that role has led to just under eight targets per game since Week 9, compared to over 11 per game in the first half of the season.
Like the rest of the Bills’ top options, he’s a fairly strong bet for cash games, but I prefer to look elsewhere for GPPs due to the combination of limited ceiling and heavy ownership.
Value
Whenever a top wideout goes out, we tend to assume their targets will trickle down to the No.2 and No. 3 options. For the Bengals, that would be Tee Higgins ($6,500) and Tyler Boyd ($4,600). We have Boyd with the best Pts/Sal projection on the slate this week with Ja’Marr Chase out.
However, there are some problems with that assumption. The first is that without the threat of an alpha receiver, that passing production could just as easily be lost as it could be reallocated. The second is that other starters already have their own role in the offense, which may not change with a primary player out. For an example of the latter, look at how Puka Nacua stepped into the Cooper Kupp role for the Rams this season, rather than Kupp’s targets going to the starting outside wide receivers.
For the Bengals, that means Trenton Irwin ($3,000) could be the surprise contributor. When fellow outside receiver Tee Higgins missed time this season, Irwin averaged over an 80% snap share and five targets per game. Unless you think Irwin is a backup to Higgins specifically — then you could take a gamble on Anrei Iovasas ($3,000) or Trent Jones ($3,000). It’s probably Irwin, though, making him one of my favorite sleeper plays on the slate.
Outside of the Bengals, Diontae Johnson ($5,000) is projecting extremely well. He carries a ton of risk, though, as Pittsburgh’s passing offense could totally collapse with Mason Rudolph at the helm. Both he and teammate George Pickens ($4,700) have solid roles for their price tag in a theoretically soft matchup.
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NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Stud
The old adage about rookie tight ends struggling to adjust to the league has proved horribly wrong in 2023, with two rookies among the top 15 at the position in DraftKings scoring. That’s Sam LaPorta and Dalton Kincaid ($5,000), who had the highest median and ceiling projection at the position in Week 16.
Over his last five healthy games (he exited Week 15 early with an injury), his 22.22% target share is only a hair behind Stefon Diggs for the top option in Buffalo. There’s no reason to think that won’t continue this week — provided he’s healthy. Keep an eye on our news feed as we get closer to the weekend.
If he’s good to go, he’s the only tight end with a realistic shot at separating from the field on Saturday, making him an interesting tournament option.
Value
For cash games, your options probably come down to either Tanner Hudson ($3,600) or Pat Friermuth ($3,800). They sit atop our Pts/Sal projections, with Hudson projecting for a slight edge.
I’m far more confident in Hudson this week. We know he’ll at least have a semi-competent quarterback to throw him the ball, which is hard to say for Friermuth. Additionally, the loss of Chase could leave an extra target or two for the tight end while Pittsburgh is at full strength in terms of pass catchers.
Finally, the spread suggests we should see the Bengals throwing more than the Steelers this week, which fits how both teams tend to operate anyway. Cincinnati ranks second in Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) on the year, while Pittsburgh checks in at 27th.
GPP Roster Construction
The game for GPPs will be in trying to build unique rosters more so than in trying to pick the best players. With only four teams to choose from — and only one projected for 20 points — lineups will be heavily concentrated around the Bills.
Therefore, if rostering teams based around the “obvious” Bills players (Allen, Cook, Diggs, and possibly Kincaid) the focus should be on getting creative elsewhere. Two tight end lineups? Sure. Maybe both Steelers (or Bengals) running backs? Why not. While those aren’t the likeliest combinations to hit for a massive score, I prefer a slight chance at a solo takedown than a slightly higher chance at a massive chop for first place.
On the other hand, if building a lineup around a stack other than the Bills, it’s fine to lean into the chalk everywhere else. But make sure your lineup “tells a story” that makes sense. A Bengals primary stack is far likelier to hit with Jaylen Warren than Najee Harris, as an example.
This is also a great week to lean on SimLabs for GPP roster building.
For example, I’ll be relying on my take that Trenton Irwin is the biggest beneficiary of Ja’Marr Chase’s absence, and letting the simulations run from there. I’m not suggesting you take that idea exactly (I’d prefer you didn’t, actually) but if you have an angle in mind, run with it.
Cash Games
It’s hard to see a way around loading up on Bills players here, with Allen and Cook as near-necessities while Diggs and possibly Kincaid close behind. I’m confident enough in Tanner Hudson to pivot away from the most expensive tight end, but I want at least three Buffalo players in my lineup.
Beyond that, it’s really anyone’s guess. Salary isn’t a major issue here, as we probably aren’t playing Austin Ekeler or Keenan Allen in cash games anyway. Parsing between the midrange receivers is probably what will be decided this week, but it’s hard to feel overly confident about any of the roughly $5,000 options.
Editor’s note: Keen Allen has been ruled out for Saturday after this article was written. Check the NFL Player Models for updates.
Running back is tricky behind Cook, with the rest of the teams featuring either split backfields or an overpriced former stud (Ekeler). I personally like both cheaper running backs in Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, but two running back builds are probably fins as well.
Finally, I prefer the Steelers defense to the Bills at cost. We have them fairly close in our projections, so it comes down to how far the extra $500 in salary will go for you.
