Week 16 features a 9-game main slate that kicks off at 1:00 p.m. ET.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Stud
There’s a debate at the top this week, with very different theses on both players. The first is Justin Fields ($7,100), who has slate-breaking upside in the right matchup thanks to his dual-threat ability. He’s flashed as a passer this season against weaker passing defenses, with four-touchdown performances against the Broncos and Commanders, who rank 25th and 32nd in DVOA against the pass.
This week he’s taking on the Cardinals — who rank 31st against the pass. Fields’ rushing production has provided him a solid floor this season, but he’s needed production through the air in order to hit significant upside. The risk here is that the Bears rapidly improving defense shuts down the Cardinals, allowing Chicago to keep the ball on the ground all afternoon.
Which is not a risk we’re especially worried about for Dak Prescott ($7,900). He’s playing in the game with the highest total on the slate of 50, an expected shootout against the high-powered Dolphins. On the other hand, Prescott’s best games this season have all been Cowboys blowouts, but that could obviously change this week.
We have Prescott just ahead of Fields in median projection in our Models, with other projection sets around the industry giving Fields a slight edge. Both are strong plays this week, with the $800 in savings on Fields offset by his increased ownership.
Value
How much can you trust Nick Mullens ($5,300) after one strong performance? The Vikings’ third starting quarterback of the season threw for 300 yards and a pair of touchdowns in last week’s loss to the Bengals, after coming on in relief in Week 14.
He has an excellent matchup with the Lions in what should be a shootout, as Detroit so often finds themselves in. Minnesota should also have their full complement of wide receivers against a bad Lions secondary, making this a smash spot — at least on paper.
We’ve seen backup quarterbacks fall back to earth many times this season after an impressive start or two, including Mullens’ predecessor Josh Dobbs, who played well for a time before being benched in favor of Mullens. It’s hard to see the Lions being the team to expose Mullens — but he’s not without risk here.
Mullens leads our projections in Pts/Sal, making him an excellent cash game play or option to build around in GPP lineups focused on this NFC North showdown.
Quick Hits
The other quarterbacks in the games we’re interested in this week both hold some fantasy appeal. Both Tua Tagovailoa ($7,800) and Jared Goff ($6,900) are overpriced for their likeliest range of outcomes — but that doesn’t mean they can’t get there if their respective games go the way we’re anticipating.
The concern with Tagovailoa is the health of Tyreek Hill ($9,600), who is trending to “active but limited” this week. Obviously, the Dolphins have plenty of other weapons, but it’s hard to replace Hill’s game-breaking speed. With Goff, there’s always a concern the Lions pick up the bulk of their scoring on the ground. I wouldn’t play either in smaller-field contests, but both are solid pivots over their chalkier counterparts in big contests.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Stud
I never thought we’d see Rachaad White ($7,400) at the top of our projections at running back, but here we are. White has ridden his workhorse role to an absurd streak of eight consecutive games where he scores above his salary-based expectations, with 20 or more carries in five of those games.
His production is somewhat independent of the game script, as he tends to see an uptick in passing-game involvement when Tampa trails, and more carries when the Bucs control the action. With that said, we still prefer to play him in positive game scripts — meaning his outlook is heavily tied to the status of Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence ($6,600).
Lawrence is yet to clear the concussion protocol as of Friday afternoon, which has led to Tampa being favored by three. I’d expect that spread to widen if Lawrence is ruled out and tighten or flip if he clears the protocol. White is a good play either way, but he could be a great one if Lawrence misses.
Keep an eye on the news this weekend as we approach kickoff for this late-game matchup.
Value
In his first week as the starter for the Vikings, Ty Chandler ($5,600) was everything we hoped Alexander Mattison would be. He played on 80% of the Vikings snaps, handling 23 carries and drawing three targets. All told, he finished with 27.70 DraftKings points.
His salary didn’t rise nearly enough to account for his production, as is typical with DraftKings’ pricing algorithm. As such, he’s drastically underpriced for his role in an expected shootout against a struggling Lions defense. It’s true that Detroit has been tougher against the run than the pass this season, but that’s not a major concern at his price point.
At least in cash games, that is. Chandler is the slate’s best play by a long shot, thanks to slate-leading Pts/Sal projections. I have my reservations about GPPs, however. We’ve seen chalk form on newly-minted starters in tough matchups in the past that didn’t pay off — like massively owned Zack Moss ($6,500) failing to crack double-digit points.
Fading Chandler is probably the plus-EV move in GPPs, but it’s a scary fade to make.
Quick Hits
It’s a rough week at the position, with only White projected for more than 16 DraftKings points. Somebody (or multiple somebodies) will score well past that — but picking them out is difficult.
Tony Pollard ($6,700) is one potential candidate, with a solid stretch of games before he was game-scripted out of a blowout loss last week. I’m taking this with a massive grain of salt, but he also claims to be approaching full strength for the first time this season:
Cowboys RB Tony Pollard said Thursday that, at start of season, he was still working through his January leg fracture more than he realized. On where leg is now: “I would say it’s a night and day difference. You think you’re good. You think you’re all the way back until you’re…
— Michael Gehlken (@GehlkenNFL) December 21, 2023
It looked like Arthur Smith had finally recovered from whatever mind virus prevented him from giving the ball to Bijan Robinson ($6,300) for a stretch of games — then the first-round pick saw just 10 opportunities last week in a game Atlanta lost 7-9. I have no clue if that changes this week, but Robinson has the talent to get it done against a soft Colts run defense — if they give him the ball.
One team that’s more appropriately using their first-round running back is the Lions, who’ve steadily increased Jahmyr Gibbs’ ($7,000) usage in the second half of the season. He’s topped 26 DraftKings points in half of their last eight games and should see more usage than David Montgomery ($6,900) if this one turns into a pass-heavy shootout. I like pairing him with Goff (or Mullens) in builds that stack this game.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineup using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Stud
The top end at wide receiver is tricky this week, as we have a noticeable dock in our projection on Tyreek Hill ($9,600) based on his health issues. If we knew he was even close to full strength, he’d be an obvious choice here, but that’s unlikely to be the case.
Instead, Cowboys top receiver CeeDee Lamb ($9,200) holds that title in Week 16. The Cowboys made a definitive shift to playing through the pass around the midpoint of the season, with Lamb as the primary beneficiary. He has a 32.46% target share and 41.53% air yards share in that time.
If this game plays out the way the spread and total suggest, it could be another huge game for Lamb. He’s topped 35 points thrice this year — all in games where Dallas scored 40 or more. That means he’s likely to be heavily correlated with Prescott, and I’m unlikely to have any Lamb GPP lineups without his quarterback.
Value
Panther’s second-round receiver Jonathan Mingo ($3,600) has slowly worked his way into being the Panthers’ top option at receiver. He has a higher target share than Adam Thielen ($5,900) over the past five weeks and a deeper average depth of target, so their prices should probably be flipped at this point.
On the one hand, we could write that off as small sample size noise, of course. However, this is a trend we’ve observed with rookie wideouts for a long time, as they tend to improve throughout the season while adjusting to the NFL level. Not that Mingo has lit the world on fire, but he’s been solid more often than not over the past month.
Now he gets a winnable matchup against the Packers, who just surrendered 381 passing yards and four passing touchdowns to the Bucs. Carolina is highly unlikely to fully replicate that — but even if they get halfway there, it likely means a solid game for Mingo.
Quick Hits
Both alpha wide receivers in Vikings-Lions are interesting here, that being Justin Jefferson ($8,100) and Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,200). Jefferson has had two quiet games since coming off the IR, but this might be the best matchup he’ll face in that span. He’s a solid example of “if you wait to see it, it’s too late.”
St. Brown is an extremely consistent option but struggles to provide the slate-breaking ceiling of other top wideouts. That’s because the Lions prefer to play run-heavy, and St. Brown’s low-aDOT route tree relies on tons of volume for him to score. There’s an outside chance of that happening this week — but it correlates heavily with the Vikings getting in front early. I like St. Brown more as a bring-back for Mullens/Vikings stacks than a standalone option.
Jaylen Waddle ($7,800) stepped up in a big way in Tyreek Hill’s absence last week, posting an 8/142/1 line against the Jets. He could be leaned on again in Week 16 if Hill is limited, or he could put up a big score in a shootout even with Hill seeing his usual volume. He’s a bit thin for his price tag, but stranger things have happened.
I almost went with Jayden Reed ($5,400) over Mingo as the value option this week. Like Mingo, he’s a rookie wideout whose production has taken off in recent weeks. Unlike Mingo, he plays for a functional offense that’s implied for north of 20 points. That’s baked into his price tag, but it’s definitely an upgrade if you can find the $1,500 in salary.
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NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Stud
It’s finally happened — the projection and salary on Trey McBride ($5,700) have seen him leave the value section and find his way to the stud section of this article. He has the highest median projection in most projection sets around the industry while also leading the slate in ownership projection.
Deservedly so, as he’s been an excellent fantasy option since taking over as the starter. Especially since Kyler Murray ($6,400) returned at quarterback. In that five-game span, McGronk is averaging nine targets per game and has three games of at least 22 DraftKings points.
For context, he’s cleared that mark more than both of the tight ends priced ahead of him, TJ Hockenson ($5,800) and Sam LaPorta ($6,400) have all season, just since Murray has returned. There’s no real reason to think that changes here against the Bears, who’ve allowed a +1.6 Opponent Plus/Minus to tight ends this season, third-best on the slate.
Value
With McBride also leading the Pts/Sal projections for the position, the next best option is Tyler Conklin ($3,200) of the Jets. He has a strong matchup with the Commanders, who’ve been shredded through the air all season — but especially since trading away top pass rushers Chase Young and Montez Sweat.
Conklin is mostly just a cash game punt, as he’s yet to exceed 14 DraftKings points in a game all season. He’s a fairly safe floor play, though, with at least five targets in his last four games. I suppose he could stumble into his first touchdown of the season and provide some upside, but that’s not why you’re playing him.
Quick Hits
Both Hockenson and LaPorta are reasonable McBride pivots this week, as the Cardinals’ top tight end is expected to soak up the bulk of the ownership at the high end. It’s a bit frustrating to have to pay a premium for players with lower projections, but that’s why ownership is so low.
Both players have significant roles in offenses expected to play well this week. Hockenson leads all tight ends in target share, while LaPorta ranks sixth. There’s also the “revenge game” narrative for Hockenson if you’re into that kind of thing. I don’t buy into that myself, but it exists. I prefer LaPorta here, thanks to having better QB play, but it’s tough finding the salary.
Evan Engram ($5,400) is another dark horse at the position. He’s slightly cheaper than McBride, which helps, and he’s seen an uptick in usage with Christian Kirk on injured reserve. Since Kirk went down, he’s turned 27 targets into a 24/205/3 line across three games, averaging over 20 DraftKings points.
GPP Roster Construction
This is a fun week for GPPs, as there are plenty of potentially high-scoring game stacks projecting for reasonably low ownership. My favorite among those just might be the Cowboys, with Prescott projecting for single-digit ownership. It’s a perfect buy-low opportunity after two blowouts (one in each direction) limited his passing volume. Prior to that, Prescott had topped 28 DraftKings points in five of six games. He also typically brings CeeDee Lamb and another pass catcher along with him.
Of course, attacking that game from the Miami side makes sense as well, with Tua Tagovailoa, one or both of their top wideouts and ideally Lamb as a bring-back. Lamb’s outsized market share means you can secure much of the Dallas passing volume without using their quarterback. That build is expensive but doable this week with cheap options at other spots.
Both Justin Fields and Nick Mullens are “naked” quarterback options this week. Mullens could spread the ball around enough to get there at his cheap salary while not supporting Justin Jefferson at his. Fields’ legs always leave the door open for a big game without any of his pass catchers.
Either of those quarterbacks leaves room for playing Lamb and Hill/Waddle, in essence “stacking” multiple solid spots. It’s obviously easier with Mullens from a salary standpoint — though I probably want to pair him with one of ASB or Jahmyr Gibbs.
Outside of the top options, I’m mixing and matching wideouts as salary allows. I obviously prefer Jayden Reed or DeAndre Hopkins ($6,100) to someone like Jonathan Mingo — but might not be able to afford it.
I’ll also be mixing and matching at running back, though I’ll come in way below the field on Ty Chandler. Detroit is a top-five run defense by DVOA, and we’ve learned this lesson with Zack Moss. I’ll take the L if he has a big day, but his ownership means rostering him doesn’t help you that much, even if he does hit.
Finally, McBride at tight end and then Jets ($3,100) at defense are the clear “best plays.” They’ll also both be over-owned for their ceiling.
If multi-entering, you should have some exposure to both, though ideally not in the same lineup.
Cash Games
This is also a fun week for cash games. I don’t think there’s one “right” build the way we’ve seen in some weeks recently, with plenty of reasonable options.
At quarterback, Mullens feels like the logical choice. He also carries some significant downside, as we’ve seen with other backup quarterbacks suddenly regressing to the mean. There’s certainly a case for pivoting up to Fields while ideally including Justin Jefferson as a hedge against Mullens’ production.
My strategy is to try to secure some production from each of the best scoring environments on the slate. So one of Mullens or Jefferson with Chandler for the Vikings. Ideally, one of the Lions’ top options (St. Brown, Gibbs, possibly LaPorta) as well. Then, one of the top wide receivers in the Cowboys-Dolphins game — pending Hill’s health, of course.
At running back, I’m pretty locked into Montgomery and Rachaad White. There are options after that, though this wouldn’t be a bad week for four wide receiver builds. No other backs stand out as “must plays” at the position. With a handful of strong mid-range options at receiver, that might be the way to go.
Finally, the obvious answers at defense and tight end are the Jets and McBride. You could probably fade the latter for a cheap option, but the former is a lock.
For a more in-depth look at each position, be sure to check out our positional breakdowns by Matt Martin or any of our other NFL content.
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