Week 16’s final multi-game slate comes on Christmas, with a three-game Monday slate. Similar to Thanksgiving, the real game here is in using late swap to adjust on the fly based on information gathered during the early games since each game is played in separate time windows. The first game kicks off at 1:00 p.m. Eastern Time.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Stud
It’s a surprisingly strong slate for quarterbacks despite just six teams to choose from, with all of Jalen Hurts ($7,600), Patrick Mahomes ($7,500) and Lamar Jackson ($7,400) projecting above 20 points in our models.
Of the three, Hurts is by far my favorite play. His Eagles are implied for a slate-high 28.25 DraftKings points as they take on the lowly Giants in a game where they’ll be highly motivated. Philadelphia features one of the most aggressive offenses in the league, trying to pile up points regardless of the scoreboard.
That’s because their poor passing defense allows their opponents plenty of comeback opportunities, raising the odds this game turns from “blowout” into “shootout.” Of course, we also have Hurts’ rushing ability to factor in, where the combination of scrambling ability and “tush push” touchdowns raises his floor and ceiling.
Of course, I’m not the only one to notice how strong of a play Hurts is this week. He’s projecting for the highest ownership at the position — though it’s somewhat spread between the other high-priced options. Still, there’s a case to be made for pivoting in tournaments, particularly to Jackson if you fall behind in the game between the Chiefs and Raiders.
Value
Outside of the upper tier, Brock Purdy ($6,700) stands out as an excellent option. He’s not a ton cheaper than the quarterbacks priced above him, but he has similar upside as the favorite in the highest total game on the slate.
We know the deal on Purdy at this point. He has the most talented group of pass catchers in the league and can rack up plenty of fantasy production merely by getting the ball in their hands. This isn’t to say he’s not talented as a thrower — just that he’s playing an easier game than every other NFL quarterback.
The downside this week is the matchup against Baltimore, who ranks second in DVOA against the pass and first in yards per pass play allowed. That’s likely a bit misleading in the context of this game, though. Baltimore limiting downfield passing against other teams doesn’t necessarily translate to shutting down yards after the catch on crossing routes, for example.
All of which is to say the matchup isn’t ideal and should dock Purdy a bit, but not nearly enough to ignore him entirely here. From a strategy standpoint, the 49ers widely spread offense also means you can roster Purdy and the top pass catchers from other teams while still locking in most of the production from every group.
That’s how I plan to attack in cash games while stacking Purdy in GPPs.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Stud
The running back pool on Monday is as shallow as the quarterbacks are deep, with Christian McCaffrey ($9,500) miles ahead of any other player.
The Ravens are considerably softer against the run than the pass, ranking ninth in DVOA and 21st in yards allowed per carry. Not only does that mean CMC should be fairly efficient on a per-carry basis, but the 49ers could look to lean a bit heavily on him here. They’ll be motivated to hang on to the #1 seed in the NFC and should be going all out for a win here.
I don’t expect McCaffrey to have a monster game here, as his two 40-point explosions came against the awful Cardinals defense. At the same time, we don’t need him to, either. With no other back projecting for even 15 DraftKings points, a mid-20s score for McCaffrey probably puts him in the optimal lineup.
With the 49ers playing the late game, CMC also opens up some excellent late-swap opportunities. Ideally, he’s rostered in your flex, where you can pivot to one of the 49ers wideouts if you’re behind in cash games or blocked from a high finish in GPPs. He’ll be massively owned, so fading him is essentially guaranteed leverage.
Value
With Philadelphia likely to control the game, D’Andre Swift ($6,000) has a shot at an expanded workload here. I’m not as personally confident in that as our projections — since the Eagles could continue to attack downfield all game — but it’s certainly a possibility.
Even if the workload isn’t’ anything special, he should have no problem being efficient against the Giants 28th ranked rushing defense. He’s also involved enough in the passing game where an unexpectedly close game doesn’t really hurt his outlook. That makes him a fairly safe play, no matter how this game turns out.
With that said, he has a questionable path to a ceiling. A true blowout likely means he gets pulled early due to his frequent injuries this season. A tight game means he won’t see massive volume and needs to break a big play or two. However, like McCaffrey, he might not need a massive score to take down GPPs. That makes him worth considering in all contest types.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineup using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Stud
The top projection belongs to AJ Brown ($8,500), but he’s only about a point ahead of Rashee Rice ($6,500), which makes it hard to justify the extra $2,000 in salary. That’s not to say Brown can’t get there as a “pay up to be contrarian” option, just that he’s not really the top play on the slate.
Rice certainly is, in his new(ish) role as the clear WR1 for Mahomes and the Chiefs. Over the last month, he’s averaging 9.5 targets per game, good for a 28% target share. Even with a lowered expected pass play rate, he’s still underpriced for a likely 7-8 targets from Mahomes.
Rice’s ability to hit a true ceiling score likely comes down to the Raiders’ ability to keep pace offensively. For GPPs, I want at least one Raider on all of my Rice lineups — even if not stacking this game specifically. On the other hand, Rice is nearly a lock for cash games, as he ranks second in Pts/Sal projection on the slate.
Value
The only player with a better Pts/Sal projection than Rice is the Giants’ Wan’Dale Robinson ($3,900), who’s become the top receiver for the Giants in the Tommy Devito ($5,000) era. Robinson leads the team in targets with Devito under center despite a meager 4.6 per game.
We’re anticipating a throw-heavy approach this week, though. Not only because the Giants are big underdogs but also because the Eagles are much softer through the air than on the ground. That means Robinson should be on the higher end of his target range this week.
Robinson profiles as more of a cash game play, with an extremely low average depth of target (aDOT) but a high catch rate with Devito. His teammate Darius Slayton ($3,400) has nearly double the air yards on one less target from Devito. This makes Slayton the better GPP pivot, as his downfield role leads to a wider range of outcomes than Robinson.
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NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Stud
While he’s been supplanted by Rice as the Chiefs top option, Travis Kelce ($7,500) has the second-most targets among all tight ends in the NFL this season, with 110 through 13 games. It’s been a bit of a down year by Kelce’s standards, but he still leads the position in receiving yards and PPR points per game.
Part of his “struggles,” for lack of a better term, is the lack of touchdowns. He has just five through 13 games, putting him on pace for a bit over six. He’s caught no fewer than nine each of the last three years.
That’s actually good news, as we (roughly speaking) expect touchdowns to regress to the mean. Kelce’s receptions and yards per game are very similar to last season when he finished with 12 scores.
He’s an excellent GPP play on Monday and should come in at relatively low ownership due to the other strong options on the slate.
He has a slate-wrecking upside, making him worth a heavy investment in tournaments.
Value
We lost Mark Andrews for the season in Week 11, but Isaiah Likely ($4,200) has stepped seamlessly into his role. He’s averaged over 15 DraftKings points in his three weeks as a starter, right around Andrews’ average when you remove the game he exited early with an injury.
His price tag hasn’t caught up to that reality yet, giving us at least one more week of Likely as an obvious cash game play. He’s also interesting in GPPs despite his projected ownership, as there’s a handful of tight ends that should all attract attention.
It’s also entirely reasonable to show up on Monday with two tight end builds, especially if you want both likely and Kelce. They’re both going to be popular, but the number of rosters that feature them both will be somewhat lower.
GPP Roster Construction
With three games on the slate, we’re at a middle ground between trying to build the best lineups possible and trying to avoid being duped at all costs. Fortunately, each of the “onesie” positions (quarterback and tight end) has multiple strong options, so we’re unlikely to see the bulk of the field settled on a specific build.
To that end, I’m very interested in two tight end builds on Monday. Kelce, Liklely, Dallas Goedert ($4,700), and George Kittle ($5,500) all project comparably with most of the secondary receiver and running back options while helping keep lineups unique.
Kelce and Likely could both get there without their quarterback, thanks to a concentrated offense in Kansas City and Likely’s budget price tag. I’m mostly interested in Goedert and Kittle as stacking options with their quarterbacks but I could play either with one of Kelce/Likely.
I’m torn about what to do at running back. There’s not really three backs I want to play this week — actually there’s not even two. At the same time, three-back builds with McCaffrey in the flex create invaluable late-swap options (swapportunities?). That’s more valuable in cash games than GPPs — if you miss out on a massive score, you can’t swap your way to success.
At quarterback, I’m less interested in playing Hurts or Purdy “naked” than I would be on a smaller slate. Even if they don’t produce massive scores from a particular wide receiver, it’s hard to see an optimal quarterback on a three-game slate not getting at least a decent score out of one of their weapons.
It’s also a good slate to go with full game stacks. To get a ceiling game from any of the favored quarterbacks, we probably need a somewhat-surprising offensive showing from their opponents.
Cash Games
With cash games, late swap matters far more on slates like this than identifying the right players. McCaffrey, Likely, Rice, and Hurts are all at least arguably locks, and the vast majority of the field will be built around them.
How we can find an edge is in being willing to pivot to or from popular players, depending on how the early games go. If you roster a low-owned player who fails early, the best course of action is to pivot off whichever chalky guys you can. For example, going from McCaffrey to one of the 49ers wideouts (assuming CMC is in the flex) gives you the salary to go from Likely to George Kittle in the late game.
That’s just one example, but keep all of the options in mind when putting lineups together. My most important piece of advice this week is to not play cash games if you’re unable (or unwilling) to monitor lineups all afternoon on Christmas Day. There are plenty of other slates, and it’s giving up a huge edge.
Enjoy your holidays and good luck!
