We have Saturday football in Week 15, with a three-game slate featuring three different time slots of games. That puts an extra emphasis on late swaps and other game theory considerations — which we’ll touch on along with the usual player-level analysis.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Stud
There’s not much separation between any of the quarterbacks on the slate, with our models having only a three-point gap in median projection between the top and bottom scorers.
The top projections belong to the quarterbacks facing off in the final game of the slate, Russel Wilson ($6,000) and Jared Goff ($6,500). That game has a 48-point total, by far the best on the slate. The $500 in savings on Wilson makes him the sharper play from a Pts/Sal standpoint, but Goff has the higher ceiling projection.
Which one you go with largely depends on how you expect the game to go. Detroit is likely to shift fairly run-heavy with a commanding lead, especially against a poor Broncos run defense. However, if the game stays close or Denver gets in front, we could see more passing from the Lions.
I want exposure to both quarterbacks in this one but will lean more toward Goff-heavy, thanks to his strong splits at home/indoors.
Either way, be sure to correlate the rest of your lineup around whichever player you roster.
Value
The rest of the field all have a similar Pts/Sal score in our models, with Jake Browning ($5,700) holding a slight lead. He’s also my favorite option if pivoting from the late game for a couple of reasons.
Browning has been surprisingly effective the last two weeks, with DraftKings scores of 29.66 and 24.70. That’s partially thanks to the weaponry around him, with a talented pair of wide receivers and a strong pass-catching running back in Chase Brown ($4,800).
He’s essentially a poor man’s Brock Purdy from a few weeks ago — competent enough to get the ball to the elite talent around him, with way too low of a salary. While he doesn’t offer much with his legs, neither does any other quarterback on the slate.
Rostering Browning and/or Bengals stacks also provides plenty of flexibility for late swaps, since it’s the first game on the board. If the stack hits, you can pivot to safer/higher-owned players in the later games or swap to more contrarian choices if you get a lower score.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Stud/Value
Are you ready to give Zack Moss ($6,200) one more shot? The Colts back was one of the most popular players on each of the last two main slates, but disappointed majorly, failing to break double-digit DraftKings points in either game. Now he’s once again projecting for the top score on the slate, as Jonathan Taylor misses (at least) one more week.
There’s not really a reason to believe this week will be any different for Moss. The matchup last week with the Bengals was much softer than this week against the Steelers, and his Colts are favored by just 1.5 points. I suppose there’s a case that this game being at home might make a difference — the last two were away — but that’s fairly thin.
Of course, all the reasons he’s been a strong on-paper play for two weeks remain. He should see the vast majority of the touches for the Colts’ backfield with a reasonable price tag. Not that reasonable though, especially considering the price you’ll be paying in ownership.
I’m mostly out on Moss for GPPs this week, mainly due to his elevated ownership. He still leads the slate in Pts/Sal projection, though, so he’ll be on my cash game rosters.
Quick Hits
If building around a quarterback in the night game, both Lions running backs are intriguing. David Montgomery ($6,400) gets the bulk of the work in positive game scripts, with 100+ rushing yards and a score in two of the Lions’ three double-digit wins. Jahmyr Gibbs ($6,700) is the preferred option with Detroit playing from behind, thanks to his big-play ability and value as a receiver.
Therefore, I’ll be looking to pair Montgomery with Russel Wilson and build around games where Denver is playing catch up, or Gibbs with Jared Goff — and possibly Denver’s Javonte Williams ($5,900) in lineups built around a Denver lead.
Ty Chandler ($5,300) is mercifully in for Alexander Mattison in Minnesota. He’s shown far more juice than Mattison this year and was already serving as the primary passing-down back. He’s a borderline must for cash games, and I like him as a pivot from Moss in GPPs thanks to his cheaper salary and softer matchup.
Finally, keep an eye on Najee Harris’s health ($5,100). He looks to be on the right side of questionable, but if that changes Jaylen Warren ($5,200) would be a massive value. “Pittsburgh running back” has been productive as a unit, and concentrating that production into one player would make him the slate’s best running back play. We’ll report on his status in our newsfeed once it gets cleared up.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Stud
Heading into 2023, the top two fantasy draft picks were almost universally Justin Jefferson ($8,100) and Ja’Marr Chase ($7,600). While both have had their moments, injuries — their own or their quarterbacks — have limited both. Now they’re facing off in the early game, in what’s one of the tougher decision points on the slate.
Chase dropped nearly 35 points in the first full game with Jake Browning before taking a backseat in the Bengals blowout win last week. Jefferson saw just two targets from Josh Dobbs last week before taking a big hit and leaving the game in his first appearance since Week 5.
That gives me a lot more confidence in Chase, who’s at least developed some rapport with his backup quarterback. I’m guessing most lineups will feature one of the two.
Both players could certainly be played together here, especially in game stacks built around Browning. That would be a unique way to build lineups this week and it isn’t all that difficult with some cheaper options at running back and quarterback especially since most of the ownership will center around a slightly cheaper wideout who projects even better.
Value
Michael Pittman ($7,300), who I almost considered as part of the Chase/Jefferson discussion. He’s enjoying life with Gardner Minshew ($5,500) under center, drawing double-digit targets in four straight games. He leads our models in Pts/Sal projection, earning him mention as a “value” play despite his high price tag.
He’s also a much safer option at the high end than Jefferson and Chase for cash games. Pittman is projected as the most-owned receiver in tournaments, which limits my interest in him there. Games against the Steelers don’t tend to produce week-winning upside, and I’d rather roll the dice with Jefferson, Chase, or players from the Broncos-Lions game.
Quick Hits
Like Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,900), who trails only Pittman in median projection in our models. That makes him a somewhat difficult click if going by projections, thanks to his higher price tag. However, his ceiling is considerably stronger than Pittman’s. It’s a better game environment, and St. Brown already has two games this year with a better score than Pittman’s best.
Courtland Sutton ($6,400) is the obvious bringback from the Broncos. He’s a touchdown machine, trailing only Tyreek Hill in receiving touchdowns on the season. It’s a great spot against a Lions secondary that’s been torched in recent weeks — and rostering both Sutton and St. Brown gives plenty of late-swap options as well.
The five players mentioned so far are the strongest plays on the slate, but there are some secondary options worth considering as well. I particularly like Jerry Jeudy ($4,700) thanks to my interest in the Broncos-Lions game, but there’s a handful of players with similar projections.
I don’t have a strong preference for any of those players, but make sure to correlate your wide receivers around the rest of your lineup. That doesn’t just mean quarterback stacks — things like wide receivers paired with opposing running backs are solid options, too.
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NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Stud
The most important decision on the slate is almost certainly tight end. We have top-end talent in Tj Hockenson ($5,800) and Sam LaPorta ($6,000) — with everyone else projecting well behind them.
The question isn’t just between those two players but whether or not they can score enough to separate from the rest of the pack. Scoring a few more points than a player $2,000 cheaper kills your lineup, so you need a real difference-making score from these two.
The matchup against the position is much better for Hockenson, with the Bengals having the highest Opponent Plus/Minus allowed to the position. However, the game environment and quarterback are better for LaPorta — with the added benefit of his game coming last.
I like starting lineups with LaPorta, but pivoting off him to a cheaper tight end/more expensive players elsewhere if Hockenson has a disappointing score. If that happens, the odds of either tight end posting a “have to have it” score is effectively halved.
If Hockenson has a big day, then leaving LaPorta in gives your lineup a chance to keep pace, while trying to separate from Hockenson lineups elsewhere.
Value
The dark horse in this conversation is Pat Friermuth ($3,900), who posted a 9/120 line in his first game back from IR in Week 12. That was also the last time he played a full game with Kenny Pickett, who’s injured and replaced by Mitch Trubisky ($5,300) this week.
That’s a fairly small sample size, and I hesitate to say Trubisky is a huge step down from Pickett. Friermuth coming anywhere near the scores from LaPorta or Hockenson would be a huge boost to lineups, all at somewhat lower projected ownership.
Quick Hits
Outside of the three players mentioned, there’s a ton of “hope for a touchdown” cheap tight ends on the slate. None of them even have a ceiling projection in the double digits, so understand that rostering them is primarily a bet on the higher-priced players to fail.
I’m not opposed to that line of thinking of course — the likeliest outcome for any tight end is a disappointing score — but be sure to structure the rest of your rosters accordingly.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineup using the power of simulation:
GPP Roster Construction
This is a great week to lean on SimLabs for GPP roster construction. I believe the value of a product like SimLabs is higher on smaller slates like this — where game theory and being contrarian are more important than player evaluation. For that reason, I’ll be leaning heavily on it to build my rosters.
Some starting points I’m eyeing are stacks built around the Lions and Broncos game — Goff + Gibbs + LaPorta/St. Brown, or Wilson + Sutton + David Montgomery. The beauty of SimLabs is it will figure out the optimal construction around those lineups, giving you a solid chance of cashing big if your initial read proves correct.
I’ll also be building some lineups with LaPorta and Hockenson excluded, as well as some with both Chase and Jefferson, as I expect those will both be fairly unique pairings.
Cash Games
Outside of Moss, cash games are pretty wide open this week. No single player feels like a must-play at any position. However, I am a believer in Jake Browning, and rostering him at quarterback opens up a lot of salary elsewhere on the roster.
From there, we can capture the bulk of the Colts’ production (Moss and Pittman) and the Lions passing attack (St. Brown) without needing their quarterbacks.
I also want to be as heavy on the late game as possible, as the most important decisions in cash games will come after the first game kicks off. Late swap on small slates is far more important in cash games than GPPs — if an early stack/player fails in a GPP, you probably aren’t winning anyway.
In cash games, we can pivot to contrarian plays at other spots if our early players fail or switch to chalky options in order to protect a lead.
