Week 15 features a 10-game main slate that kicks off at 1:00 p.m. ET.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Stud
The game of the week from both a DFS and real-life perspective is undoubtedly the Cowboys at the Bills, with a total in the 50s and two of the NFL’s best offenses squaring off.
Clearly, that makes Josh Allen ($8,200) and Dak Prescott ($8,000) the top quarterback options on the board, with our projections giving Allen a moderate edge. That’s largely due to his rushing production. His 10 rushing touchdowns are tied for third in the NFL, and trail only Jalen Hurts among quarterbacks.
However, I prefer Prescott this week, especially for GPPs. The Dallas passing defense is much tougher than Buffalo’s, ranking 10 spots higher by DVOA and allowing an Opponent Plus/Minus score 3.2 points higher per game. Prescott has also been the more productive quarterback over the last six weeks or so, leading the NFL in passing touchdowns and ranking second in air yards as a passer.
Prescott’s scoring coming mostly through the air also makes him an easier player to stack. CeeDee Lamb ($9,200) has a 40% target share over the past six weeks. On the other hand, that also makes a compelling case for “stacking” Lamb with Allen and trying to get the bulk of the production from both team’s offenses.
You can’t really go wrong with either quarterback in this game, and the better play might come down to ownership. Allen is projecting to be far more popular throughout the industry — another good sign for Prescott.
Value
We have another game with a 50-point total in Week 15, a rare treat in a year with lower-scoring games throughout the league. That would be the Commanders at the Rams. These teams aren’t as talented — or concentrated — offensively as the Bills and Cowboys, but both rank in the bottom 10 in DVOA against the pass.
Which creates solid value for both Matthew Stafford ($6,000) and Sam Howell ($6,300). Particularly Stafford, who’s inexplicably underpriced for a quarterback with three straight DraftKings scores of 22 or higher while taking on the league’s worst passing defense.
Stafford has plenty of weapons at his disposal, and Washington should do just enough offensively to keep him aggressive throughout the game. That’s a perfect combination for Stafford, who leads our Pts/Sal projection by a comfortable margin.
Don’t sleep on Howell, though. The Commanders have the highest pass rate in the league and a reasonably strong matchup against a sub-par Rams passing defense. He’s a solid pivot for tournaments, with considerably discounted ownership projections.
Quick Hits
I’ve been all over Brock Purdy ($6,800) this season, in part thanks to his laughably cheap salaries early in the season. Those days are over, with a price tag in the upper range of the position in Week 15. Purdy could still get there with a few big plays to his talented quartet of pass catchers, but San Francisco is likely to skew run heavy as 13-point favorites over Arizona. I’ll have some Purdy exposure, but less than in recent weeks.
On the other hand, I don’t think I’ve played a single Patrick Mahomes ($7,800) lineup in a main slate this year, which has mostly worked out, as he’s exceeded his salary-based expectation just twice. Mahomes simply doesn’t have the talent around him to reliably put up big numbers, nor does he need to, thanks to the Chiefs’ borderline elite defense. I don’t see that changing this week against New England, but his projections are firmly within the top five in the position.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Stud
Yeah, it’s Christian McCaffrey ($9,300) again. I mentioned above that San Francisco could skew run heavy this week as massive favorites against Arizona, which means a heavy dose of CMC. While he’d likely get pulled at the tail end of this game if it turns into a blowout, that blowout probably happens because McCaffrey got him there.
It’s a dream matchup, with Arizona ranking 31st in fantasy points allowed to the position and San Francisco having the highest team total on the slate. McCaffrey has a near every-down role in competitive games and either 100 yards or a touchdown in all but one game this season. That game without a 3-point bonus or a score? He caught six passes and still broke 20 DraftKings points.
He’s an absolute must for cash games, with the closest thing to a guaranteed 20ish-point score on the slate. On the other hand, it’s a bit harder to see him paying off his massive salary for GPPs.
He has just one game that you’d have to have at his current salary this season — though it was against these Cardinals.
Value
Regular reminder: “value” doesn’t mean “cheap.” Kyren Williams ($7,500) is the third-most expensive back on the slate this week, but the clear leader in Pts/Sal projection.
I don’t want to compare Williams to CMC (yes I do), but when healthy he has a remarkably similar role. Since returning from a four-game absence, he has opportunity (target + carry) counts of 22, 26, and 29. Los Angeles is battling for a playoff berth, and they clearly feel that leaning on Williams gives them the best chance to win.
With all that said, Williams doesn’t have McCaffrey’s talent, nor does he have anywhere near as strong of an offensive line in front of him. He also doesn’t have a DraftKings price tag over $9,000, so the required score for him to help your lineup is considerably lower. He’s my favorite running back for all contest types this week.
Quick Hits
Projections almost forced me to include Ezekiel Elliott ($5,800) as the value play this week. The Patriots back is serving as the workhorse with Rhamondre Stevenson out of action and dropped 27 DraftKings points last week in a vintage performance. That came against a tough Steelers run defense, and now he draws the run-funnel Chiefs.
The downside here is that the Patriots could totally fail on offense, leaving Zeke with a single-digit score (who can forget chalk Zack Moss the last two weeks). The upside is another score of around 20 or so — which would be massive for his salary.
If De’Von Achane ($7,200) misses the Week 15 contest — he didn’t practice Thursday with a toe injury — Raheem Mostert ($7,100) would suddenly be very intriguing. We have Mostert + Achane projected for over 28 DraftKings points combined this week. Not that Mostert would get all of the extra work, but he averaged a solid 18 DraftKings points without Achane this season.
That’s more than any back outside of McCaffrey and Williams project for in Week 15.
We have a similar situation with Jerome Ford ($5,500) and Kareem Hunt ($4,900) in Cleveland, though it’s a bit trickier. Both primary running backs are dealing with injuries, with Ford practicing on a limited basis and Hunt missing Wednesday’s session. If either were to miss, the other would be a strong play in a reasonably winnable matchup against the Bears. Keep an eye on our news feed as we approach the weekend.
We should also see a jump in Antonio Gibson’s ($5,200) projection with the news that Brian Robinson has been ruled out by the Commanders. Gibson’s been efficient in limited touches this season, and already had a solid role in the passing game. He’s unlikely to see a ton of carries here, but an extra five or six from his baseline would go a long way in an excellent game environment. He’s an excellent pivot from Zeke at a similar price range.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineup using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Stud
The aforementioned CeeDee Lamb unseated Tyreek Hill ($9,900) atop the projections this week, for reasons we’ve already discussed. He has a 40% target share for the Cowboys and is playing in the best game environment on the slate. To further the case for Lamb, Buffalo ruled out starting safety Micah Hyde on Friday.
Hill is interesting this week. He comes into the game with a questionable tag thanks to an ankle injury suffered last week. He hasn’t practiced at all since then, and the Dolphins probably don’t need him against the struggling Jets. With all of that said, I’ve not once been happy with a full fade on Hill this season.
It’s hard to make a definitive call until we have further clarity on Hill’s injury status, but even if cleared to play, I’d still prefer Lamb.
The game environment and matchup are far better, and the $700 price savings go a long way as well.
Value
Since Tommy Devito ($5,000) took over under center, Wan’Dale Robinson ($3,600) has a very solid 22.86% target share for the Giants. While that’s not elite by any stretch, it’s in the same realm as the full-season numbers of players like Tyler Lockett and Courtland Sutton, who are routinely priced nearly double that of Robinson.
That’s a bit of a misleading stat, as the Giants have limited Devito to 26 or fewer passing attempts in all of his starts. Still, that puts Robinson somewhere in the region of five targets as a median projection in Week 15 — not bad for his salary.
Other than a big play or two, it’s hard to see a ceiling case for Robinson, and those are likely hard to come by against a tough Saints defense. That makes him a strong cash game play with limited GPP appeal. His teammate Jalin Hyatt ($3,200) is also over 20% target share in that span and is a reasonable pivot if you need the $400 in savings.
Quick Hits
On the cheaper end, I’m also considering the Rams Demarcus Robinson ($3,600). He seems to have taken over as the number-three wideout for the Rams, a valuable role in what should be a high-scoring game. The former Chief drew ten targets last week — catching just three — but opportunity is king in fantasy football.
On the high end, I’m also interested in the Rams duo of Cooper Kupp ($7,800) and Puka Nacua ($7,300). It’s become nearly impossible to pick out which player is likely to have the bigger day, but both have massive target shares in a tremendous game environment. Their big games tend to come in different weeks, so I wouldn’t try to fit both players into your lineup.
If Cowboys-Bills ends up being the “have to have it” game of Week 15, Stefon Diggs ($8,400) probably had something to do with it. I like Diggs as a bring-back for Prescott and Lamb stacks more than as a partner for Josh Allen. Allen being the GPP-winning quarterback probably means he gets it done with his legs, limiting opportunities for Diggs. However, some big plays to Diggs would force Dallas to keep throwing all game, providing some nice correlation with Cowboys stacks.
Deebo Samuel ($7,700) seems to be separating from Brandon Aiyuk ($7,200) as the better option in San Francisco as of late. Samuel scored 75 DraftKings points over the past two weeks, with Aiyuk held to just 35. Still, the last time the 49ers played Arizona, Aiyuk posted a six-catch 148-yard performance, with Samuel held without a catch. What does that tell us? Probably nothing — but one of the two has topped 20 points in eight of the 10 games, with both healthy.
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NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Stud
We’ve hit a point where there’s a legitimate argument between Travis Kelce ($7,600) and Trey McBride ($5,200) for the top raw tight end play on the slate. McBride has scored exactly 100 DraftKings points in the six games without Zach Ertz this season. That’s good for an average of 16.66, and Kelce’s best game in that span was 16.4.
In defense of Kelce, he’s been more consistent in that stretch, as McBride has had a few big spots and a few duds. We aren’t paying Kelce’s price at tight end for consistency, though. Kelce’s seen a dip in efficiency and volume this season as the Chiefs switch to a slower-paced approach, limiting his upside.
It’s a much tougher matchup for McBride against a stout 49ers pass defense, but the game script should keep Arizona passing throughout this game, unlike the Chiefs, who are big favorites on the road against another tough pass defense in the Patriots.
Projections still give Kelce an edge here, but I don’t think they would if you took the names away and just looked at the stats.
Value
I spent a lot of time early in the year banging the drum for Chig Okwonko ($2,900) of the Titans. The 2022 fourth-round pick is a freak athlete, with a 4.52 40-yard dash time that puts him in the 96th percentile of the position. He also had some near misses on big plays early in the season, with poor quarterback play in Tennessee holding him back.
That’s changed a bit in the Will Levis ($5,400). Not only is Okwonko seeing more targets thanks to more total passing, but some of those targets are even catchable. He’s not breaking the slate with massive scores, but he’s caught at least three balls and recorded at least 45 yards in three straight contests.
He has a bit more upside than that thanks to some potential touchdown regression as well. He has the second most receiving yards of any tight end without scoring a touchdown, which should eventually even out. Even if it doesn’t, a high single-digit score is enough to keep you alive at his price tag while opening up salary for other positions.
Quick Hits
A cheaper way to get some exposure to Cowboys-Bills is tight end Jake Ferguson ($4,800). He’s quickly become a favorite target for Prescott, with a solid red zone role that’s resulted in four touchdowns over the last seven contests. Ferguson hasn’t really had a single breakout game, but Dallas also hasn’t had to play their starters for four quarters very often. A tight game on Sunday could lead to a big score for their tight end.
We have an extremely small sample size on the Rams’ Davis Allen ($3,300), who took over as the primary tight end last week with Tyler Higbee injured. Davis will reprise that role in Week 15, in another game we want some exposure to. Last week he caught four of his five targets for 50 yards and a score. Even without the touchdown, that would be a solid day at his price tag — and this week sets up even better.
GPP Roster Construction
The big challenge this week is whether it’s worth it to find the money to stack the Cowboys-Bills game, or “settle” for the slightly lower total in Rams/Commanders. Both games have fairly clear paths to upside, but getting the right team/game stack will be critical.
Of course, if multi-entering the right move is to get exposure to every scenario. We can use SimLabs to help with that by having it build lineups around each of the four quarterbacks.
I’m planning on being heaviest on Prescott, primarily thanks to the strong correlation between him and his receivers/tight end. There’s also an argument for a “naked” Josh Allen stack — banking on his rushing ability — brought back with one or both of Lamb and Ferguson. With Lamb capturing such a high target share in Dallas, we can capture most of Prescott’s upside without needing Dak himself.
Both the Rams and Commanders are more difficult teams to stack. They both have fairly wide target distribution, or in the case of Los Angeles, two expensive options that command the bulk of the looks. When building around that game, I’ll be spreading my exposure fairly equally among the relevant options, rather than committing to a specific build.
Outside of that, I want as much exposure to 49ers pass catchers as I can afford. One of the trio of Kittle/Aiyuk/Samuel seems to be in the optimal lineup every week. With that said, I have a hard time finding the salary for McCaffrey in large-field contests.
He probably doesn’t break the slate in what should be an easy 49ers win.
Cash Games
This has the feel of an old-school cash game week. We have clear studs at wide receiver and running back in McCaffrey and Lamb. Some viable cheapish quarterback options in Stafford and Howell and another expensive running back in Williams that’s worth forcing into your lineup.
This could mean the difference comes down to which cheap wide receivers and tight end you play to make those lineups work. That’s a bit scary, but by playing the relatively obvious plays, you’ll probably have a leg up on 20-30% of the field (depending on buy-in level) before the smaller decisions come into play.
The other big decision is Ezekiel Elliott or Antonio Gibson as a third running back. At the time of writing, projections have yet to fully account for Robinson’s absence in Washington. I suspect when they do, it will be a pretty close call from a salary-considered standpoint.
Outside of that, I’m going as cheap as possible at tight end (Okwonko) and defense (Jets?) in order to make the lineup work.
For a more in-depth look at each position, be sure to check out our positional breakdowns by Matt Martin or any of our other NFL content.
