Thanks to some Week 14 byes, we have another 10-game DraftKings main slate this week. As always, lineups lock at 1:00 p.m. ET.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Josh Allen ($8,000) Buffalo Bills (-3.5) at LA Rams (49.5 Total)
The top of the quarterback projections belong to familiar faces, with Jalen Hurts ($7,800) holding a slight lead over Josh Allen. Despite Hurts projecting about half a point better and being cheaper, I prefer the upside of Allen if I’m spending up to this price range.
Hurts’ Eagles are taking on the Panthers, with Philly favored by two touchdowns. I don’t doubt Hurts will get his along the way, but the matchup is much softer on the ground against Carolina. That caps Hurts upside, as he probably won’t see enough rushing or throwing volume for a huge performance.
On the other hand, the Bills are favored by about a field goal against the Rams. Los Angeles, at least theoretically, can keep up long enough to force Allen to attack all game. Plus, his higher price tag also results in lower projected ownership, making him a solid leverage play.
The game being played indoors in Los Angeles also helps the cause a bit, as it should be easier to throw than outdoors in Philly. Hurts is probably a safer bet to hit 25, but I’d give Allen higher chances to go for 30-plus — which is what we need at this price tag.
Value: Will Levis ($5,000) Tennessee Titans (-3.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (40 Total)
There are plenty of similarly projecting quarterback values on the Week 14 slate. If I’m going cheap at quarterback, I want to go really cheap though, which leads me to Will Levis.
He’s tied (with a pair of players about $1,000 more expensive) for the Pts/Sal lead this week. The Titans have a soft matchup against the Jaguars, who rank dead last in DVOA against the pass but 16th against the run. While Tenessee wants to be a run-first team, this matchup should skew them a bit more to the air.
Levis has hit a tight window of fantasy production since coming back to start over the last four weeks, falling between 16.6 and 19.1 fantasy points in every matchup. However, he had to face three top-six overall defenses in that span, so he has a real chance at going well past that number this time.
It’s also an excellent spot for Levis to contribute with his legs. Jacksonville plays man coverage at the third-highest rate in the league, which typically makes it easier for quarterbacks to run. With Levis averaging 6.5 carries per game over the last four, I like that aspect of the matchup.
He’d be a fine cash play even if he falls in his typical 16-19 point range, which is well over 3X his Week 14 salary. Considering his upside for more, he’s a very strong play this week.
Quick Hits
Sam Darnold ($6,100): Darnold is effectively the poor man’s Josh Allen (stick with me here) this season. What I mean by that is he’s highly likely to post a score in the upper teens, or around 3x his Week 14 salary. He’s hit that mark in eight of his last 10 games. He’s also only gone for 4x his salary once in that span, and just barely at that. We’ve got him projected right in that range again, which is good enough to tie Levis for the Pts/Sal lead — but not enough to make him a strong GPP play.
Kyler Murray ($6,000): The third quarterback atop the Pts/Sal projections is Murray, who’s tied with Levis and Darnold. Unlike Darnold, he’s got a reasonably wide range of outcomes. Murray has four games over 25 points this season — but also four games under 13. He has the tougher matchup this week than Darnold, but packs enough rushing upside to make him a better GPP play.
Aidan O’Connel ($4,800): If, for some reason, Will Levis isn’t cheap enough for you, O’Connel offers a similar profile minus the rushing production. “AOC” went for 340 yards and two scores against the Chiefs last week and now gets a much softer matchup against Tampa. The Bucs rank 31st in points allowed to QBs. I prefer the rushing upside and better team total of Levis, but an O’Connel pivot wouldn’t be crazy.