Week 13 features a 10-game main slate that kicks off at 1:00 p.m. ET.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
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NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Stud
For the second week in a row, Jalen Hurts ($8,200) and the Eagles are playing in the best fantasy game on the main slate. This time, they’re hosting the 49ers in an NFC Championship game rematch, with Philadelphia coming in as a slight underdog.
It’s a mix of good news and bad news for Hurts’ DFS prospects. On the one hand, this should be a back-and-forth game between two aggressive offenses. The upside on Hurts largely depends on whether the opposing team can push Philadelphia into a shootout.
On the other hand, it’s a brutal matchup with the 49ers. San Francisco ranks fifth in DVOA against the pass and has held opposing quarterbacks to the third-fewest points per game on the season. Hurts was held in check by a similarly tough Chiefs pass defense, scoring only 19.90 DraftKings points in that matchup.
Still, that’s effectively his floor here, and Hurts can still put up a good game without racking up passing yards. San Francisco is much more exploitable on the ground, where Hurts has chipped in nearly 10 DraftKings points per game. With starting running back De’Andre Swift ($6,600) banged up, Hurts should have plenty of chances to run the ball.
The likeliest outcome here is yet another strong game for Hurts, with plenty of GPP upside, thanks to his rushing production. He’s a strong play in all contest types and leads our models in median projection at the position.
Value
Of course, the other side of the 49ers-Eagles game might be the better side for DFS. That, of course, means Brock Purdy ($6,100) and the San Francisco passing attack.
Purdy’s salary has finally broken the $6,000 mark but is still arguably too low for his production on the season. He’s averaging 19.6 DraftKings points per game overall, but that number jumps north of 21 if you count only games with Deebo Samuel ($6,200) active. His worst games with Samuel healthy were all blowout wins, and the odds of that are diminished here.
The case for Purdy remains the same week-to-week. He has an embarrassment of riches at his disposal in the passing attack, who can all turn check-downs into big gains. Purdy doesn’t need to do much; just get the ball in the hands of his receivers.
Doing so should be more valuable than usual this week against a slow, aging Eagles secondary that ranks 21st in DVOA against the pass. Purdy is a near lock for cash games, with the best Pts/Sal projection at the position.
Quick Hits
Tua Tagovailoa ($7,900) edges out Hurts for the top ceiling projection on the slate in a juicy matchup with the Commanders’ awful defense. Miami is favored by around 10 here, so there’s some blowout risk, but we’ve seen the Dolphins drop 70 points when they absolutely didn’t need to, so I’m not overly concerned with the game script limiting Tua here. On the other hand, he still put up “only” 31.36 DraftKings points in that game.
I’d play Tagovailoa over Hurts if the former’s ownership projection was meaningfully lower. That doesn’t seem to be the case, so I prefer to find the extra $200 for Hurts or to pay down at the position. You almost have to pair Tagovailoa with Tyreek Hill ($9,600) if playing him in tournaments — and you can get more upside by rostering Hill and a cheaper quarterback.
Like Sam Howell ($6,200), whose Commanders are taking on the Dolphins this week, Washington comes into the game ranked third in Pass Rate Over Expectation and first in actual pass rate on the season. That’s not going to change when trying to keep up with the explosive Dolphins offense.
Miami has an above-average pass defense, but if you think this game stays close enough to push Hill/Tagovailoa to week-winning scores, it probably means Howell had a strong game, too. His best game this season has been 34.98 points — better than Tua’s best game. He also has the higher scoring average on the season, all at nearly $2,000 cheaper.
Bryce Young ($4,900) is my super large-field tournament flier of the week. The No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 Draft hasn’t lived up to his draft capital and might never. However, he has an excellent matchup against the Bucs pass funnel defense. We also know rookies tend to get better throughout the season. The lack of talent around him is probably too much to overcome, but his minuscule price tag and sub-1% ownership make him worth a small chunk of your GPP portfolio.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Stud
What more needs to be said about Christian McCaffrey ($9,000)? He’s far and away the leader in median and ceiling projection at the position, in an excellent game environment. The matchup on the ground is tough, but McCaffrey is averaging double-digit points in the passing game alone this season.
CMC might be the last true stud running back we see for a long time as more specialized players and committee backfields take over the position. He can truly do it all, serving as the primary ball carrier, pass-catching back, and goal-line option for the 49ers.
Still, I don’t’ consider McCaffrey a must for GPPs. He’s only 4xd his salary once this season, with one other game over 30 points. He’s extremely unlikely to hurt your lineup, but he’s almost equally unlikely to be a true “must play” relative to his salary. Except in cash games — you definitely want to play him in cash games.
Value
Zack Moss ($4,600) on the other hand, might just be a must-play in all contest types. Moss has somehow dodged DraftKings’ aggressive pricing of backup running backs despite performing admirably as a starter earlier in the season. This is actually the cheapest salary he’s seen all year. He’ll be a workhorse with Jonathan Taylor out for at least this week.
Moss is running away with the Pts/Sal lead, and could only get halfway to his projection and still be fine. It’s not an ideal matchup against the pass-funnel Titans, but Moss is involved enough in the passing game to work around that.
Obviously, he’ll be extremely popular this week. However, it’s hard to see a way around playing him in any contest type.
Besides, as FantasyLabs Senior Editor Justin Bailey lamented last week, it’s been a good year for chalk:
Quick Hits
There are plenty of midrange options to pivot (or play alongside) from McCaffrey this week. My favorite might be Rachaad White ($6,300). He quietly has one of the best roles in the league, seeing at least 16 opportunities in six straight games. If the game script turns negative he gets more targets. Otherwise, they feed him carries. It should be the latter situation this week, with Tampa favored over the Panthers. This is good news, as Carolina ranks 32nd in DVOA against the run and 30th in DraftKings points allowed to backs.
One of my oft-forgotten “rules” for DFS is to always play last-weeks chalky failure. Derrick Henry ($6,800) didn’t exactly bomb last week with his two-touchdown game, but his 20.60 DraftKings points didn’t win any tournaments either. The field seems to have moved on this week, with his ownership projection considerably lower. This is a solid opportunity for us — it’s the first game of “Dehember” after all.
Another solid DFS principle is to roster players in their first game back from injury. We saw it with Kyren Williams ($7,200) last week — and this week, it’s De’Von Achane’s ($6,900) turn. The matchup with Washington sets up better for the passing game, but Achane only needs a few touches to blow the slate wide open. The likeliest scenario is he doesn’t get there, but if you wait for a better on-paper opportunity, it will be too late.
Jaylen Warren ($5,400) and Najee Harris ($5,200) both have an excellent matchup against a leaky Cardinals defense. Arizona ranks 31st in points allowed to running backs and has the worst Opponent Plus/Minus at the position on the main slate. Of course, deciding between the two is tough, with a near-even workload.
For deeper contests, we could go real wild and play them together — they’ve collectively 4xd their Week 13 combined salary already this year, and this is by far the best matchup and gamescript they’ve had. I’m considering that route in smaller-field contests, where a 200-point pace might take down a tournament. For bigger stuff, I’ll be mixing and matching an even dose of both.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Stud
Just like at running back, we have a clear top wide receiver in Tyreek Hill ($9,600). The matchup couldn’t be much better for Cheetah against a Commanders team that ranks 32nd in DVOA against the pass and 31st in points allowed to the position.
Formerly a boom-or-bust option, Hill has transformed into a “boom or still pretty good” DFS player this season. The Dolphins have made a concerted effort to get him more looks closer to the line of scrimmage, which has drastically raised his floor. He has a middle-of-the-road average depth of target (aDOT) of 9.97, but that doesn’t paint the whole picture.
Rather than a ton of medium-depth routes, Hill sees a good chunk of routes around the line of scrimmage and a few deep down the field. His route chart against the Chargers is a good example of his usage this season:
He saw three of his 11 targets 20 or more yards down the field, and five of them within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. With his speed, he can take either to the house, but the shorter routes give him a strong weekly floor. He has just three games below 25 DraftKings points this season while topping 30 in nearly half the Dolphins games.
Value
It’s a bit tougher at the low end of the salary range, with no truly obvious options. The Patriots’ Demario Douglas ($4,300) is one of their few reliable wideouts — though he’s questionable himself so keep an eye on our news feed. Assuming he suits up, he should see a healthy dose of targets.
He’s drawn at least six in five straight games, and that was with more competition for looks. Douglas is not without risk here due to the putrid Patriots offense, but a bad game is probably four or five catches for 50ish yards, making him a solid cash-game option.
Editor’s note: Douglas was ruled out after this article was submitted. Check the NFL Player Models for updates to projections.
Quick Hits
Keenan Allen ($9,000) is too close in price to Hill to be a truly strong play, but there’s a case to be made for him as a GPP pivot. He’s seen a ridiculous 46 targets over the last three weeks, as the Chargers have almost nobody else to throw to. With running back Austin Ekeler ($8,300) banged up and inefficient recently, it’s hard to see that changing. That’s great on full-PPR DraftKings, as he could easily top double-digit catches. His ceiling then relies on adding touchdowns to the mix, but it could be a bet worth taking.
I mentioned my moderate interest in the Panthers’ passing attack earlier when discussing Bryce Young. Adam Thielen ($6,600) and Jonathan Mingo ($3,300) have combined for more than 50% of the team’s air yards this season, with the rookie Mingo coming on strong in recent weeks. That makes them an easy double stack at a very cheap price, with both receivers also viable as one-off pays.
Curtis Samuel ($4,100) has one of the two 20-point wide receiver scores for the Commanders this year. He’s been heavily involved when fully healthy, rare though that may be. His boxscores are a bit misleading as he was limited by various injuries in many of the games he was active, but he looked right last week. That game saw him with 12 targets in a trailing game script against Dallas. It’s a similar setup this week against Miami, only with a considerably softer opposing defense.
Jameson Williams ($3,600) seems to have finally become the No. 2 receiver the Lions drafted him to be, with his snap share increasing in six consecutive weeks. He’s clearly a high-variance option, with just a few targets per game — but he also has a career yards per reception of 17.1. If one of those big plays ends up in the endzone, he’ll easily pay off his salary.
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NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Stud
I’m obviously big on the 49ers offense this weekend against a bad Eagles pass defense. Picking which of their pass catchers has the big game is always a challenge, but George Kittle ($6,200) has a solid case this week. The Eagles are slightly worse in Opponent Plus/Minus against tight ends than receivers, and Kittle has topped 20 DraftKings points in three of four contests.
More importantly, Kittle leading the way for the 49ers would be more valuable for DFS. It’s harder to find big scores at tight end than other positions. That makes 20+ from Kittle a bigger edge than a similar score from other positions.
The bigger point here is that you aren’t necessarily more likely to “win” by rostering Kittle, but you’re likely to be more heavily rewarded if you do. Other sites also have much lower ownership projections on Kittle, so it could be even more of a leverage spot than it appears.
Value
Week 13 has an old-school DFS feel to it, with an obvious value running back and a minimum-priced tight end being thrust into a starting role. That would be Brevin Jordan ($2,500), who’s set to be the starter in Houston for a couple of weeks with Dalton Schultz unavailable.
Jordan played a season-high 26 snaps last week after Schultz went down. While he only saw one target, he ran a route on 19 of the 20 passing plays he was in on. While there’s lots of competition for targets in Houston, it’s also a potent passing attack led by one of the league’s best quarterbacks.
None of which matters all that much at his price tag. Especially in cash, I’d be happy with even two catches for 20 or so yards — as well as the salary flexibility to get up to the studs I want. That’s probably about his floor this week. His ceiling is much higher, especially if he assumes all of Schultz’s 16.35% target share role.
Quick Hits
Trey McBride ($4,900) is probably the best all-around play at tight end yet again. His mid-range salary doesn’t fit nicely into either the “value” or “stud” category, but he’s tied for the top Pts/Sal projection on the slate. McBride is averaging over 15 DraftKings points per game since Kyler Murray ($7,000) returned, and the release of Zach Ertz means he’s locked in as their primary tight end.
We don’t have a great projection on Taysom Hill ($5,200), but he’s notoriously hard to project. “Taysom Hill games” seem to pop up at random. He has three games of over 16 DraftKings points so far this season. With New Orleans potentially down their top three receivers, this seems like a fairly likely spot we see plenty of Hill against the Lions. Pay attention to the status of both Chris Olave ($6,900) and Rashid Shaheed ($4,500), though. Both are questionable, but the absence of one or both greatly boosts the outlook for Hill.
Editor’s note: Shaheed has been ruled out. Olave is listed as questionable.
GPP Roster Construction
I’m going to keep an extremely narrow pool at quarterback this week, with most of my lineups featuring Hurts or Purdy and a few sprinkles each of Howell and Young. As mentioned in the quarterback section, I prefer to get most of my Tua exposure through Tyreek Hill, who should account for the bulk of his quarterback’s production.
We’ve seen “naked” quarterback builds win the Milly Maker multiple times recently, and both Purdy and Hurts are solid candidates to do it again. Hurts seems fairly likely to get Dallas Goedert ($4,800) back this week, dividing his passing production among three fairly expensive options. Purdy has his usual quartet of weapons, who could all have strong days at their price without hitting a true ceiling game.
Editor’s note: Goedert is listed as doubtful this week.
On the other hand, part of the appeal behind Howell and especially Young are the cheap, obvious, stacking partners they bring. Young/Thielen/Mingo combine for under $15,000 in salary, meaning 60 or so combined points keeps you on a tournament-winning pace. With plenty of expensive options to jam in, a cheap stack might be the key to unlocking the slate.
The logic on Howell is similar, though he has a more widely distributed offense with four players north of 13% target shares. I’ll be mixing and matching any two of those players when building by hand, or just letting SimLabs figure out my Howell exposure.
At running back, I’m fine with eating the chalk on Moss since he doesn’t need much to keep your lineups alive, and he could bury you with even a 20-point score. I’ll have some CMC as well, but I will primarily pair him with White, Henry, Achance, and the Steelers back.
Hill is a similar priority at wideout, as even his floor case is unlikely to totally kill your lineup. There are plenty of “good” options behind Hill — but not many great ones. Therefore, I’ll be heavily mixing and matching my non-stacked wideouts.
Ditto at tight end and defense. DraftKings has improved their pricing at both positions this year. That makes it so there aren’t really any obvious values at either spot. Both positions are fairly volatile, so my plan is to cast a wide net.
Cash Games
For cash games, all of CMC, Moss, and Hill are must-plays this week. The salaries of Hill and McCaffrey are hard to fit, which then dictates the rest of the build. Especially if you consider White a must at running back as well — which is the way I’m leaning.
From there, you could go super cheap everywhere else and try to force Hurts into the lineup. Alternatively, you get a bit more flexibility if using Purdy at quarterback. It’s still somewhat tight, but those builds give room for one or two more $4,000-ish player.
I’m not overthinking tight end here. Jordan is an obvious play, with perhaps Juwan Johnson ($3,400) of the Saints as the only viable alternative. However, we don’t have any tight end projected for more than 12ish points, so I’m happy to punt the position.
Especially considering you can have Jordan and Atlanta ($3,400) on defense against the Jets. I prefer that combo greatly to Johnson and Carolina ($2,500). However, I can see the case for the Panthers and Johnson. They’re a bad defense, but Tampa Bay has a 21.25-point team total. They won’t win you any contests, but they’re unlikely to lose them for you either — which is all we can ask for cash games.
For a more in-depth look at each position, be sure to check out our positional breakdowns by Matt Martin or any of our other NFL content.
