This is probably the toughest week for byes on the NFL schedule, with productive offenses like the Bills, Bengals, and Falcons all missing from the slate. That leaves us with a ten-game main slate that kicks off, as always, at 1:00 p.m. ET.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Stud: Jayden Daniels ($7,000) Washington Commanders (-10.5) vs. Dallas Cowboys (45 Total)
Playing quarterbacks in likely blowouts is a tricky situation. On the one hand, we’d probably prefer a back-and-forth game that keeps both teams attacking. On the other, if the Commanders end up blowing out the Cowboys, Daniels probably had a lot to do with it.
Situations like this probably limit the favored quarterback’s ceiling. They can typically score well enough to have a “solid” game but have a harder time hitting slate-breaking scores without being pushed by their opponent.
That’s how I’m viewing Daniels this week. He leads our median projections at 21.63 points, nearly two points clear of any other player at the position. He’s extremely likely to put up 3x his Week 12 salary — but will have a hard time going for the 4x+ you need to win larger tournaments.
Therefore, I’m interested in Daniels if I can find the salary in cash games and smaller single-entry or 3-max GPPs. For larger field contests, the only way I’m rostering him is with pieces from the Cowboys as a bring-back, which would be a bet on Dallas overperforming their Vegas lines.
Value: Anthony Richardson ($5,600) Indianapolis Colts (+7.5) vs. Detroit Lions (50.5 Total)
One of the reasons it’s hard to get up to Daniels in cash is because of all the value in the upper $5,000 range on DraftKings this week. We have three reasonable options in that price range, plus two risky, min-priced options we’ll touch on shortly.
Richardson is actually third in Pts/Sal projection on the slate, but it’s extremely close between the top three. He has a tough matchup with a solid Lions defense, but the game leads the slate with a 50.5-point total.
That should lead to a near-ideal game environment for the Colts. They should be chasing points for the majority of this game, which takes place indoors at Lucas Oil Stadium. While Detroit’s defense has done a good job limiting quarterback production, they also haven’t faced any true rushing quarterbacks yet this season.
Their man-heavy defense has historically allowed rushing QBs to do plenty of damage with their legs, which is a huge part of Richardson’s game. He ran ten times for 32 yards and two touchdowns (on designed runs in the red zone) last week.
For that reason, I like Richardson’s ceiling relative to the other players in his price range. I’m willing to give up a bit in Pts/Sal projection in exchange for the upside since Richardson is the only one in this range who could really hurt you by not playing him.
Quick Hits
Geno Smith ($5,700): Smith has a slight lead on Richardson in Pts/Sal projection. That’s largely due to Seattle ranking second in the NFL in Pass Rate Over Expectation, boosting Smith’s overall volume. Like Richardson, he’s an underdog this week, but only slightly, as the Seahawks host the Cardinals. He has less upside than Richardson, but the softer matchup means he’s less likely to completely bomb as well.
Tommy DeVito ($4,000): DeVito is the other player ahead of Richardson in Pts/Sal projection. Which isn’t hard, given DeVito’s stone minimum salary. He’s taking over for Daniel Jones as the Giants take on the Bucs, a theoretically easier matchup than the other quarterbacks face. With that said, there’s a real chance the Giants switch to Drew Lock ($4,700) if DeVito struggles, so he’s probably too risky for cash games.
Brandon Allen ($4,000): With news of Brock Purdy sitting out Week 12 breaking on Friday, we now have two minimum-priced quarterback options. Allen has a tougher matchup than DeVito by a long shot but a much better offense around him. All things considered, I prefer him slightly over DeVito, but it’s close — and neither man is a high-confidence play.
Patrick Mahomes ($6,800): If there’s ever an ideal time for Mahomes to get going, this is it. Kansas City is taking on the Panthers’ 31st-ranked defense a week after suffering their first loss of the season. Mahomes has topped 20 DraftKings points just once this year, as the Chiefs rely on their defense to win games. However, they’ll need their offense to be clicking at full speed for the playoffs, so it would make sense to get some reps in against a bad defense. This reminds me of Jared Goff‘s spot last week — and Goff won somebody a million dollars.
Jared Goff ($6,600): Speaking of, I’d be remiss not to mention the Lions quarterback here. Detroit has the highest team total on the slate at 29, a week after Goff threw for four touchdowns and more than 400 yards. I expect Detroit to lean more heavily on their ground game this week — but it wouldn’t shock me if they kept airing it out either. He should also have tight end Sam LaPorta back, further strengthening his weapons. It’s hard to get to Goff from a strategy standpoint, as he probably needs the Colts to keep pace in order to hit a ceiling, which would mean Richardson is the better play. However, Detroit has three wins of 38+ this season. That makes Goff worth considering at around three percent projected ownership.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Stud: Christian McCaffrey ($8,500) San Francisco 49ers (-3) at Green Bay Packers (46.5 Total)
McCaffrey has been back from IR for just two games so far this season, both of which resulted in disappointing DFS performances. Despite that, neither the pricing algorithm nor ownership projections seem worried.
The opportunities have been there for CMC, with 19 touches in his first game back and 23 last week. He just hasn’t found the end zone, and both box scores would look much better with an extra six points tacked on.
That could change this week in a cold and potentially rainy game at Lambeau. That’s a tough spot for passing offenses in general, but Brock Purdy has now been ruled out, which should open up more rushing opportunities. McCaffrey appears capable of handling a full workload, and it wouldn’t shock me to see him top 20 carries here. He should be fairly efficient as well, thanks to the strong offensive line matchup.
I was hoping a bad couple of games would keep much of the field off McCaffrey, but that doesn’t seem to be the case. Even so, I’ll be trying to get there in cash games while having plenty of GPP exposure. He leads the position in median and ceiling projection.
Value: De’Von Achane ($7,500) Miami Dolphins (-7.5) vs. New England Patriots (46 Total)
We continue to have a dearth of true running back value, as the top Pts/Sal option on the slate is $7,500 De’Von Achane. None of the top four backs in the category are less than $6,500, so saving salary will be tricky.
Achane has proven to be worth every dollar of his price tag since Tua Tagovailoa returned for Miami, though. Achane has drawn 25 targets over the past four games with Tagovailoa under center, in addition to double-digit carries in every contest.
He should be near the higher end of his carry range (and lower end in targets) this week, as the Dolphins are heavy favorites against the Patriots. That’s not necessarily a bad thing since the Pats rank 28th in DVOAS against the run.
It does make Achane a bit touchdown-dependent though. He’ll struggle to pay off his salary without a score. However, Miami’s 27-point total means there should be plenty of touchdowns to be had, so it’s a fairly minor concern.
Quick Hits
Joe Mixon ($8,000): It doesn’t seem true, but the RB1 in points per game this season is Mixon. He’s found new life in Houston, averaging just under 25 DraftKings points per contest. He has a tougher matchup this week against a pass-funnel Titans defense, but not an entirely unwinnable one. He trails only McCaffrey in median projection and Achane in Pts/Sal, with the matchup keeping him just out of pole position in either category.
David Montgomery ($6,700): Montgomery has outscored teammate Jahmyr Gibbs ($7,300) in two of the three Lions blowout wins this season, with a positive Plus/Minus score in each game. He typically sees more work in positive game scripts, with Gibbs taking over on passing downs and in hurry-up situations. After dominating through the air last week, I expect a heavy dose of the running game from Detroit in Week 12, with my interest leaning toward Montgomery over Gibbs.
Brian Robinson ($5,600): The one potentially viable cheap running back this week is Robinson, who has the best offensive line matchup on the slate. The Commanders are also heavy favorites, so it would make sense to lean more heavily on the run game. Dallas has given up the fourth-most points to running backs in the league this season, and Robinson handled 75% of the running back carries last week in his return from injury. His lack of receiving work makes him a risky option, but the situation couldn’t be much better.
James Conner ($6,500): Conner is a tricky back for DFS. He’s consistently beating his salary-based expectations…slightly. He’s posted positive plus/minus scores in eight of 10 games but hasn’t topped 22.5 on DraftKings all season. He draws a soft matchup against Seattle this week that should have him at the higher end of his range of outcomes, but he probably needs multiple scores to have a shot at winning any weeks. He’d be a solid cash game pivot from Robinson if you had the extra $900, but it’s not super easy to come by this week.
Tyrone Tracy ($6,000): With the G-men benching Daniel Jones in favor of DeVito, it would make sense to see a more run-heavy approach in Week 12. That means a heavy dose of Tracy, who’s been a bright spot since grabbing the starting job from Devin Singletary ($4,900). Tracy has averaged 18 carries over the past three weeks, with two 100-yard games mixed in. It’s also not a bad matchup against the Bucs, who have a slightly positive Opponent Plus/Minus allowed to backs. There’s some risk the offense totally craters here, but Tracy has a decent chance of getting his.
Kareem Hunt ($5,700): The Chiefs are massive favorites this week against the Panthers. Those Panthers also rank 32nd in DVOA against the run. That’s an ideal spot for Hunt, who’s the Chiefs lead back for at least one more week. There was concerns that Isiah Pacheco would be back this week, but he’s been ruled out. Hunt is tied with Achane for the top Pts/Sal projection at running back.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Stud: Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,300) Detroit Lions (-7.5) at Indianapolis Colts (50.5 Total)
The top end of wide receiver is fairly weak on this slate, with just two players projected for more than 18 DraftKings points, and even then, just barely. The leader of the two is St. Brown, who’s fresh off an 11/161/2 line in Week 11.
That comes with some caveats though. Detroit was without tight end Sam LaPorta last week, pushing targets to St. Brown. Detroit also went uncharacteristically pass-heavy in Week 11 but will likely return to their run-first ways as big favorites this week.
Still, St. Brown should get his. He’s scored at least one touchdown in eight straight games, with at least 20 DraftKings points in half of Detroit’s outings this year. Any wide receiver scoring into the 20s might be enough to separate this week.
My interest in St. Brown is mostly through lineups with Colts pieces. We probably need Indy to keep pace to an extent for St. Brown to hit a true ceiling game. As such, that makes him an excellent bring-back on Anthony Richardson lineups.
Value: Courtland Sutton ($5,800) Denver Broncos (-6) at Las Vegas Raiders (41 Total)
Four players sit atop the Pts/Sal projections at wide receiver with nearly identical marks. The slight leader is Sutton, who’s been the biggest beneficiary of the Broncos rising offense. Sean Payton’s Broncos are starting to resemble the Drew Brees-led Saints teams coached by Payton, with Sutton in a version of the Michael Thomas role.
That’s led to an average of 9.5 targets per game over the last four weeks and just under 100 air yards per game. Those are WR1 numbers, but Sutton is priced as a mid-range WR2 in Week 12. It’s not the ideal game script against the Raiders, but it’s hard to ignore that volume on full-PPR DraftKings.
While Denver is a healthy favorite in what should be a low-scoring contest, they should still have a reasonably strong pass rate through much of this one. They’re one of just nine teams with a positive PROE on the season, while the Raiders rank fifth in PROE against.
That gives Sutton a fairly solid volume-based floor, with yardage and touchdown-based upside.
Quick Hits
Justin Jefferson ($8,100): Jefferson is projecting just slightly behind St. Brown in the top spot and is a virtually identical option when factoring in price. Jefferson has a remarkably similar stat line to St. Brown this season — minus the explosion in Week 11. It’s probably coming at some point though, with Jefferson leading the NFL in target share. The matchup with Chicago isn’t especially attractive, but it’s not a shy-away spot either.
Romeo Doubs ($4,600): The Packers have three wide receivers with similar usage this season. Doubs, Jayden Reed ($5,900), and Christian Watson ($5,200) are all within five targets of each other. Doubs leads the group though, despite checking in with the cheapest DFS salary of the trio. His usage makes him a solid floor play, but the tough matchup with San Francisco limits his (already small) ceiling.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($6,300): Earlier this season it became clear that JSN moved past Tyler Lockett ($4,800) into WR2 territory for Seattle. Now, there’s a case he’s their WR1, as he has more targets, catches, and yards on the season than DK Metcalf ($6,600). Seattle is a one-point underdog in the game with the second-highest total on the slate, so this is an excellent spot for the passing offense in general.
Marvin Harrison Jr. ($6,100): The other WR1 in that game is Harrison, who’s been a boom-or-bust option so far in his young career. He has the explosive ability to put up big scores on limited volume but not a true WR1 usage rate. That makes him way to risky for cash games on tighter builds, but a necessary part of stacks built around this game.
CeeDee Lamb ($7,300): It’s been a tough year for Lamb and the Cowboys in general, but they had to be encouraged by Cooper Rush ($5,000) throwing for over 350 yards in Week 11. Lamb accounted for 93 of those on eight catches and 12 targets. Now they get a Commanders pass defense that ranks 21st in DVOA. Dallas should be attacking through the air as underdogs in this one, making this a sneaky good spot for Lamb without tight end Jake Ferguson to siphon targets.
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NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Stud: Travis Kelce ($5,800) Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5) at Carolina Panthers (43 Total)
Kelce’s streak of double-digit targets and big fantasy scores ended in Week 11. The Bills shut down Kelce en route to handing the Chiefs their first loss of the season, with the star tight end held to two catches for eight yards on just four targets.
That’s probably not going to happen again this week. The Panthers have one of the league’s worst overall defenses, and the Chiefs should be able to score however they want here. If I’m Kansas City, I want to get the explosive passing going this week, ahead of a playoff run where they’ll need it.
That obviously starts with Kelce, whose usage rivals that of most teams’ WR1s. His target share is top 15 in the NFL, and second among TEs. His underlying metrics are better than most of the WRs priced in the $6,000 range, making Kelce a solid value if viewed as a “pass catcher” instead of just tight end.
It also doesn’t hurt to have Patrick Mahomes throwing you the ball. The receivers in his price range don’t have that luxury. He leads all tight ends in median projection and would rank 5th at WR.
Value: Hunter Henry ($4,000) New England Patriots (+7.5) at Miami Dolphins (46 Total)
It’s (another) tough week for budget tight ends. The only option with a better Pts/Sal projection than Kelce is Hunter Henry, whose $4,000 price tag isn’t exactly cheap. Like Kelce, Henry is his team’s leading receiver by yardage and targets — but leading the Patriots offense isn’t quite as inspiring.
New England has a modest 19.5 team total this week, so there might not be much passing production to go around. With that said, they’re also big underdogs. That should force them to the air, which benefits their top target.
Henry isn’t exactly explosive, but given the context of tight end this week, he might not need to be. If he gets in the range of his eight-target per-game average, he’s a strong value at his price. Henry is the obvious cash game tight end this week, and I don’t hate him for GPPs either.
Quick Hits
Brock Bowers ($6,300): The slate’s highest-priced tight end has justified it in recent weeks. The high point came in Week 11, where the rookie put up an absurd 13/126/1 line on 16 targets. That was his fourth game with double-digit targets in the past six weeks. He has a tough matchup against a strong Broncos defense so he’s not a smash play, but he’s capable of posting week-winning scores.
Trey McBride ($5,600): McBride is the only player at the position with a better target share than Kelce. He also has a better matchup against a Seattle team that’s allowed a positive 1.6 Opponent plus-minus to tight ends. His fantasy scoring has been suppressed by his lack of receiving touchdowns this season — though he has one on the ground. No player in the league has more catches or receiving yards without finding the end zone, so the regression is due at some point.
Sam LaPorta ($4,300): Last year’s TE1 has been quiet this season, with just three double-digit fantasy scores on the season. He also missed last week with an injury but doesn’t carry a designation into Week 12. Knowing hoe the Lions operate under Dan Campbell, there’s a strong chance they make a point to get LaPorta going this week. That’s worth some exposure at his cheap price point.
Cole Kmet ($3,600): The other cheap tight end I’m interested in this week is Kmet. He’s seen his role expand since the Bears relieved Shane Waldron of his offensive coordinator duties, with a 95% snap share the past two weeks. That hasn’t translated into targets or catches yet, but being out there is a good start — and he’s $400 cheaper than Hunter Henry.
GPP Roster Construction
The best game on the slate from a GPP standpoint is clearly Colts-Lions. However, it’s a tough spot to approach. The favored Lions have so many weapons offensively that they can put up big scores without producing any week-winners.
One strategy is to build around Anthony Richardson while mixing and matching Detroit pieces. The other is to bet on Goff to have another big day, with or without Colts pieces on the other side.
Of course, it could make the most sense to build around other games. Seahawks/Cardinals has plenty of strong fantasy options, particularly in the passing game. The close spread there also means a shootout is more likely.
I also have a feeling that the Chiefs might be this week’s Lions, who blow their opponent away to prove a point following a down game. Targeting some of their pieces without Panthers bring-backs makes sense as a GPP strategy.
Check out my SimLabs Building Blocks article for Week 12 for some spots I’m targeting to build around this week.
Cash Games
The big decision this week will be whether to play one of the minimum-priced backup quarterbacks — and which one to play. I was fairly confident that spending up to Geno Smith or Anthony Richardson was the better choice initially. However, having the option for Brandon Allen changes things.
It’s not hard to put up a reasonable score when you can check down to Christian McCaffrey and company. San Francisco’s team total is a bit better than the Giants’, as is the offensive line matchup.
Rostering Allen or DeVito makes it easy to spend up to Kelce at tight end, which could be a big edge this week. It also allows you to fit both Achane and McCaffrey more easily. Those two are near locks for me this week, as is Kareem Hunt. There’s a case for Brian Robinson as well, but those are the only backs I’m considering.
Wide receiver is a challenge in cash games yet again. Courtland Sutton is the only player I feel good about relative to his salary. I’d love to get up to JSN, but finding the salary is a challenge. I’m fine with Doubs as a semi-punt, but there are plenty of viable builds depending on salary.
At defense, I’m holding my nose and rostering the Giants at just $2,400. They’re taking on a banged-up Bucs offense with the best adjusted sack rate in the league. Spending up for the opposing Bucs would be nice, but at $3,300, it’s hard to find the salary.
My plan this week is to find the plays I like at other positions, then fill in with the best available wide receivers. Keep an eye on the models, as projections will continue to be updated throughout the weekend.
