Week 12 features a 10-game main slate that kicks off at 1:00 p.m. ET.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
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NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Stud
The standout game on this slate is the Buffalo Bills traveling to Philadelphia to take on the Eagles. With a total of 48.5, it’s the likeliest game on the board for points, and it should be a close one with Buffalo as just three-point underdogs. That raises the chances of a back-and-forth shootout, helping both quarterbacks.
We have Jalen Hurts ($8,300) projecting slightly ahead of Josh Allen ($8,100) for the top quarterback score on the slate. That seems to be an industry consensus, with varying degrees of closeness depending on the projection system. This makes sense, as Hurts’ weekly rushing production easily exceeds Allen’s. Hurts has a rushing touchdown in seven of ten games this season, with two multiple-touchdown games.
On the other hand, it’s Allen who’s been the fantasy QB1 this season, not Hurts. The Bills also have the better matchup for quarterbacks against a pass-funnel Eagles defense. Philadelphia ranks 5th in DVOA against the run but 19th against the pass. To frame it differently, the Bills have allowed the fourth fewest DraftKings points to their opponents, while Philadelphia has the fourth most.
All of this makes Allen my preferred tournament option, particularly since he’s projecting for somewhat lower ownership. The $200 gap in salary is mostly inconsequential. Hurts is the safer cash game play since his rushing production raises his floor more than his ceiling, but I expect to go cheap at quarterback in cash games anyway.
Value
Which brings us to the Tampa Bay-Indianapolis game. These teams rank 20th (Colts) and 30th (Bucs) in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. The Bucs are a heavy pass funnel, while the Colts play at the fastest pace in the league, both of which greatly elevate their opponent’s pass volume.
That makes Baker Mayfield ($5,500) and Gardner Minshew ($5,100) the two best value options on the slate. Like Allen and Hurts, they lead both our projections and many other sets in Pts/Sal projection, with the order varying to some degree. Neither has a massive ceiling, but both are excellent floor plays.
I prefer the steadier Mayfield for cash games. He’s scored at least 19 DraftKings points in three of his last four games, with the lone exception coming against the 49ers elite defense. His Bucs have a slightly positive Pass Rate Over Expectation, whereas the Colts have the fourth-lowest PROE in the league.
What that means is Mayfield and the Buccaneers are a safe bet for solid passing volume, but Minshew and the Colts need the game script to go a certain way to force them to the air. Against a strong Tampa pass defense, the likeliest outcome is that it will, but it’s a bit more uncertain.
That said, Minshew is still a fine play, particularly if the $400 in salary savings makes a meaningful difference elsewhere in your lineup. Minshew’s gun-slinging style and occasional rushing production also gives him the higher ceiling here, making him my preferred option in tournaments — with his ownership suppressed due to his running back looking to be fairly chalky this week.
Quick Hits
The game between the Jaguars and Texans projects nearly as well as Eagles-Bills, with a 47.5-point total. Both teams are led by their passing attacks, and both defenses are better at stopping the run. That makes CJ Stroud ($7,700) and Trevor Lawrence ($6,400) budget versions of Allen and Hurts this week.
Lawrence is projected as the slate’s most popular quarterback, which means I’d prefer to pay up for Stroud if possible. Both have fairly spread out offenses, so it’s hard to nail down the best way to stack this game. If either team had a true alpha receiver who dominated targets, it would be easy to roster that wideout opposite the other team’s stack. Instead, I’ll be looking to SimLabs to help me build around this game while going overweight on Stroud at lower ownership.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Stud
As we touched on with Minshew, Colts running back Jonathan Taylor ($6,900) leads the slate in both median projection and projected ownership for his matchup against Tampa Bay. Taylor has at least 23 opportunities each of the past two weeks as the Colts look to get their money’s worth after signing Taylor to a big contract extension.
I’m having a hard time getting to Taylor, though, even on a somewhat tough slate for running backs. Tampa Bay has been brutal against running backs this season, with a -3.9 Opponent Plus/Minus allowed. We could overlook that a bit if Taylor had a better passing-game role, but he’s averaging just over three targets per contest since coming back, making it about a 60/40 split in his favor with Zack Moss ($4,700).
The fast-pace nature of his offense and the game as a whole helps to raise his volume, but it’s hard to project much efficiency against the Bucs rushing defense. Between his salary and ownership, he’s unlikely to make any of my GPP rosters. On the other hand, I’ll still be considering him in cash, as he’ll likely be overwhelmingly popular, and it’s tough to face a chalky play who projects that well in cash games.
Value
From a volume standpoint, Javonte Williams ($5,700) has a similar role to Taylor, averaging 18.5 carries over the Broncos’ four-game winning streak. Like Taylor, he has a difficult matchup with the elite Browns defense.
While Cleveland is by far the better real-life defense, they’ve actually allowed a bit more fantasy production to running backs. The Browns rank ninth against the position in total points, compared to fifth for the Bucs. Cleveland’s Opponent Plus/Minus allowed is also a bit better, at -1.8.
It’s still a tough matchup, but Williams is also $1,200 cheaper and should see similar — if not better — volume. That’s because Denver should be able to control the time of possession against a struggling Browns offense and will likely look to play conservatively rather than let the Browns defense beat them.
All of which makes Williams the better play in my eyes. He also leads out projections in Pts/Sal, which will almost certainly land him in my cash build.
Quick Hits
It looks like Kyren Williams ($6,600) is back as the lead runner for the Rams after Los Angeles reverted Darrell Henderson back to the practice squad. In his six healthy games this season, Williams topped 24 DraftKings points in half of them. Now he has a soft matchup against the Cardinals, who rank 29th in DVOA against the run. We should also get an ownership discount as players take a “wait and see” approach on Williams, making this an excellent buy-low opportunity.
He’s been a significant disappointment this year, but Derrick Henry ($6,400) has a dream matchup against the Panthers this week. His Titans are favored by 3.5 points, and the calendar is just about to flip to “De-Hember.” While the narrative about Henry taking over once the weather turns cold is somewhat of a bit, there’s also some truth to it. Here’s his career splits by month, courtesy of our Trends Tool:
Jaylen Warren ($5,400) is coming off back-to-back 100-yard rushing games, yet he’s still just $5,400. Sure, the volume hasn’t truly been there — he got it done on 24 carries combined over the past two weeks. However, he has an even easier matchup this week against the Bengals. With the Bengals losing Joe Burrow for the season, this is a good chance for Pittsburgh to control the game on the ground as slight favorites, raising Warren’s likely volume.
It’s been a quiet couple of weeks for Travis Etienne ($7,100) with two disappointing games against the 49ers and Titans. San Francisco is an excellent overall defense and Tennessee is a major pass funnel — this week against the Texans sets up much better. Before those two down games, Etienne had four straight 22+ point performances and could get back to that production this week in a better situation.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Stud
Just like their quarterbacks, AJ Brown ($9,000) and Stefon Diggs ($8,800) are the clear top plays at the wide receiver position, with Brown projecting a bit ahead of Diggs. as a member of their
Much of the analysis could be repeated from the quarterback section, as this game has the best overall offensive environment, with both team’s passing attacks likely to lead the way for their offenses. Brown and Diggs are two of the eight players with at least a 30% target share on the season, with Brown holding a narrow lead over Diggs.
It’s a similar story in virtually every other statistical category, where Brown has had a slightly better performance this season. However, it’s a better on-paper matchup for the Bills’ passing attack against a pass-funnel Eagles defense. Buffalo also has a higher PROE and total passing rate, so the volume should slightly favor Diggs.
We’re also projecting virtually identical ownership for both players, making it hard to choose between the pair. It will likely come down to your lineup construction — though ideally, both players would make it into stacks built around this game.
Value
The wide receiver-needy Chiefs seem like they’re committing to Justin Watson ($3,000) as a regular contributor after he saw 11 targets in their Monday night football loss to the Eagles. His 5/53/1 receiving line was solid but not spectacular, but it’s the opportunities that stand out for Watson.
Mostly because that game was played on Monday after Week 12 salaries were released, Watson would likely be at least $1,000 higher this week had his Week 11 game been played earlier, creating obvious value for him this time around. While he probably won’t see double-digit targets again, even repeating the five he saw in Week 10 would provide huge value.
We could poke a lot of holes in Watson this week — the Chiefs are massive favorites, so the game environment is likely to be sub optimal, among other issues. However, that would be nit-picking considering his minimum salary, which makes him a lock for cash games.
Quick Hits
There are plenty of solid options at wide receiver this week, with nobody projecting as truly exceptional. Among those is Puka Nacua ($7,600), who could be in line for an expanded target share with Cooper Kupp ($8,000) banged up. Kupp is expected to play, but I’d prefer Nacua in this matchup anyway. Arizona plays zone coverage at the fourth-highest rate in the league, and Nacua has a 29% target share against zone coverage compared to just 22% for Kupp.
Ja’Marr Chase ($8,300) is obviously hurt by the loss of Burrow. However, he’s still one of the league’s best wide receivers. His ceiling with Jake Browning ($5,200) is more from massive target volume than explosive plays, but he should get plenty of looks this week with the Bengals as underdogs. With miniscule projected ownership, he’s a sneaky tournament option.
While he’s been horribly inconsistent, Rahsid Shaheed ($4,300) has had a pair of slate-breaking games already this season. Now, he’s in line for at least a slight bump in targets with Michael Thomas unavailable for the foreseeable future. Rostering Shaheed is still a bet on him breaking a big play or two, but his chances are higher this week.
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NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Stud
It’s a pretty safe bet that Travis Kelce ($8,200) finishes with the best raw score at tight end this week, as the Chiefs continue to force-feed him the ball rather than trust their wide receivers. The bigger question is whether he can do enough to pay off his massive salary, with Kansas City likely to skew run-heavy as eight-point favorites.
My initial lean is probably not, as the Chiefs’ elite defense has largely prevented shootouts from occurring. Still, Kelce is projecting similarly to the receivers in his price range and should come in at lower ownership with most people paying down at tight end.
Nothing about the matchup stands out here, but that doesn’t much matter for Kelce. He can post a big score regardless of the situation, so we’ll want some exposure to him if multi-entering this week.
Value
Despite his ever-increasing salary, Trey McBride ($4,700) still leads most projection systems in Pts/Sal projection. The return of Kyler Murray ($6,900) hasn’t slowed him down any, with 16 targets over the two weeks with Murray under center.
This should be a fairly fast-paced game between the Rams and the Cardinals, which raises the overall projection for both passing offenses. Los Angeles has also struggled against the position, allowing a juicy positive 3.5 Opponent Plus/Minus to tight ends on the year.
McBride probably needs a touchdown to truly pay off his salary for GPPs, but he’s a solid bet for enough volume to at least post an acceptable score. His elevated salary makes him less of a free square for cash games, but he’s still probably the best option.
Quick Hits
If you need an extra $500, Evan Engram ($4,200) is a fine alternative to McBride. He’s averaging over seven targets per game and ranks top six in both yards and receptions at the position. Despite those solid numbers, he’s still managed to continue to avoid the end zone, hurting his fantasy appeal. That’s got to regress at some point, right?
On the truly cheap end, Cade Otton ($3,200) is probably the best choice. While his path to upside is fairly limited, he has a solid 13% target share. That’s more valuable this week, as we’re expecting plenty of total and passing volume against the fast-paced Colts in Week 12.
GPP Roster Construction
I’m starting my rosters at quarterback this week and then building out from there. We saw a “naked” quarterback lineup take down the Milly Maker last week. And it’s important to consider how we should build around the top quarterbacks.
There’s certainly a case for Jalen Hurts lineups without any of his primary pass catchers. A big chunk of his value is based on his rushing production, particularly touchdowns from the “tush push” play at the goal line. With both he and AJ Brown priced over $8,000, you’d need a massive score from both for them to pay off.
Josh Allen has been utilized less as a runner this year, so I’d want to pair him with at least one receiver. The leading candidate is obviously Stefon Diggs, but Khalil Shakir ($3,600) has big-play potential, and tight end Dalton Kincaid ($5,300) trails only Kelce and McBride in median projection, making them viable alternatives for bigger contests.
The cheaper quarterbacks I’m considering this week — primarily Minshew and Mayfield, but also Trevor Lawrence and CJ Stroud — all should be paired with at least one of their pass catchers. Ideally, two, as none of their teams have a singular receiver with a massive target share.
At running back, I remain unconvinced by Jonathan Taylor’s projection. However, none of the other backs are projecting as truly strong options. I’m fine with going well under the field on Taylor but mixing and matching other backs. I also like using running backs as “bringbacks” from my primary stacks, which make Devin Singletary ($6,000) and Travis Etienne ($7,100), among others, as players I’ll be overweight on for correlation reasons.
Cash Games
It’s a tough week for cash games, with very few “free square” type plays at any position. I’m leaning towards building around one of the cheaper quarterbacks and using that salary to pay up for high-priced wideouts.
Namely, Brown and Diggs, as playing both of them takes some of the sting off fading both of their quarterbacks. You’re at least getting exposure to a good chunk of the two top quarterbacks production by using their top receivers. Justin Watson of the Chiefs might be the week’s only “must-play” in cash, especially if paired with expensive options.
That leaves room for a pair of mid-priced running backs, and I’ll be prioritizing Javonte Williams. After him, the options are somewhat thinner and likely come down to the remaining salary. I’ll also be using four wide receivers over three backs this week due to salary constraints and the thinness of the running back position.
Defense is tricky this week, with broadly similar projections on two similarly priced teams, Denver ($3,200) and Kansas City ($3,100). I slightly prefer the Chiefs, as I outlined in my Line Play Article this week — but it’s close.
This leaves tight end, where the dream scenario is another week of Trey McGronk. Pivoting down to Engram or Otton is also fine, though, especially if the salary goes a long way somewhere else in the lineup.
For a more in-depth look at each position, be sure to check out our positional breakdowns by Matt Martin or any of our other NFL content.
