The best part of Thanksgiving certainly isn’t the turkey, and it might just be the three-game slate on DraftKings. Three non-overlapping games creates plenty of chances to think outside the box with late swaps and other game theory considerations, which we’ll touch on as we move through the breakdown. As always, we have an early 12:30 p.m. start time with the Lions game on Thursday.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
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NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Stud
With the Cowboys mercifully shifting to a pass-heavy approach, Dak Prescott ($6,800) is an easy choice at quarterback. His Cowboys have the highest team total on the slate, and trail only the opposing Commanders for the top Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) mark among the six teams.
Quarterback pricing is fairly tight on Thanksgiving, which makes it somewhat easy to find the salary to get to Prescott. While he’s the most expensive option, four of the six quarterbacks are within a $700 price range, so you aren’t sacrificing much to get to him.
Like the other strong quarterback options, Prescott and the Cowboys are huge favorites at 12.5 points this week. While that’s the widest spread on the slate, there’s an argument that this game has the best shootout potential since the Commanders at least play aggressively themselves. Even if it doesn’t Prescott has turned in massive performances in blowouts, making him an excellent overall option.
Value
It’s not much in the way of savings, but Brock Purdy ($6,100) is the cheapest favored quarterback on the slate and somehow cheaper than the Commanders Sam Howell ($6,200). While the 49ers have the lowest implied team total of the favored teams, they’ve topped 27 points in all seven wins this season, and 30 in six of those.
Purdy has been an excellent fantasy option whenever he has his full complement of weapons at his disposal and is a cheap way to get exposure to the 49ers offense without having to bet on which skill player does the bulk of the scoring. He scored 29.72 DraftKings points last week and was in the Milly-Maker winning lineup without being stacked with any teammates.
On a small slate, his chances of being the top option without any of his teammates are even higher. The other quarterbacks projecting well focus most of their production on one or two receivers, while the 49ers have a much wider spread of touches. Especially with his lower projected ownership than Prescott, that makes him my favorite QB play for GPPs.
Quick Hits
The only other passer I’m considering is Jared Goff ($6,300). On paper, this matchup is way better for the Lions on the ground, but Goff’s home/road splits with the Lions have been noteworthy:
Home/Visitor splits for Goff as a member of the Lions
Goff and the Lions probably need to be pushed a bit by the Packers to produce a GPP-winning score, so Goff stacks should almost certainly include a bringback from Green Bay. That’s a tricky proposition with none of their offensive pieces projecting well, but it should at least be a unique build.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Stud
There are plenty of options in the mid-range, but the top belongs solely to Christian McCaffrey ($8,700). He’s priced down a bit for the Thanksgiving slate, but deciding whether to roster him or not is likely to make or break rosters on Thursday.
McCaffrey has just two games below 20 DraftKings points on the season, and one of those he exited early due to an injury. That’s a remarkable level of consistency that’s more valuable on a smaller slate, as there’s less chance anybody pops off for 40 points and renders a 20-point score at the position useless.
Besides, McCaffrey is the likeliest back on the slate to blow up for a ceiling game anyway. He’s topped 30 points just once this season, but it was an insane 51.70-point performance. A game anywhere close to that would obviously make McCaffrey a prerequisite to even minimum cash GPP lineups.
For what it’s worth, his chances of a big game are probably a bit lower this week. The short week means San Francisco is likely to take it somewhat easy on him, and with all of the 49ers’ weapons healthy, it’s hard for him to earn a massive target share. I’ll certainly be rostering CMC in cash, but will likely come in under his big expected ownership in GPPs.
Value
It sure looks like Kenneth Walker won’t be back for the Seahawks on a short week. That leaves Zach Charbonnet ($5,300) as the starter for the Seahawks, making him the cheapest RB1 on the board.
With Walker’s early exit last week, Charbonnet played on 55 of 65 offensive snaps, picking up 21 total opportunities on 15 carries and six targets. It’s a brutal overall matchup against the 49ers defense, but they’ve been vulnerable on the ground. Their rushing defense checks in at just 23rd in DVOA on the season.
All of this makes Charbonnet a borderline must-play on Thursday and the clear leader in Pts/Sal projections in our (and most others’) projections this week. He’ll be chalky, but his passing-game role makes it hard for him to totally fail here.
Quick Hits
The Lions rushing attack has been so effective this season that it’s created two top-10 fantasy options on a per-game basis. Both David Montgomery ($6,300) and Jahmyr Gibbs ($6,800) are in play on a weekly basis, but doubly so with Detroit’s excellent matchup in the trenches. I’d consider rostering them together as a contrarian option if they were a tad cheaper — they’ve combined for over 39 points in each of the last two weeks. That works out to around a 150-point pace at their current salaries, not quite enough to take down any GPPs. However, one or the other will almost certainly get you there.
On a smaller slate, there’s also room to consider some thinner plays. Guys that are one injury away from a big role, for example. That includes DeeJay Dallas ($4,400) of the Seahawks, who could be the last man standing if something happens to Charbonnet. Rico Dowdle ($4,600) and Elijah Mitchell ($4,200) of the Cowboys and 49ers have similar upside, with the added benefit of potential blowouts leading to an increase in their workload.
None of the above players will be in my tighter builds, but if multi-entering on Thanksgiving, all are worth considering.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Stud
Just like his quarterback, CeeDee Lamb ($8,700) is the fairly obvious top wide receiver play this week. Since the Cowboys shifted to a more pass-heavy attack, he’s had an elite 32.75% target share while commanding over 40% of Dallas’ air yards. That target share would be second in the NFL over the course of the full season.
Now, he draws the best matchup in the league for passing offense against the Commanders’ 32nd-ranked passing defense. Washington was a bad pass defense before trading away their top two pass rushers. Now they’re downright awful.
There’s obviously some blowout risk with Lamb, but he put up 40-point games in two of the Cowboys’ recent huge wins, so it’s not much of a concern. If this game gets to blowout territory, it’s probably because Lamb got them there. Due to his outsized target share, I’m fine rostering Lamb without Prescott — but not the other way around.
Value
One of Christian Watson ($4,300) or Jayden Reed ($4,200) are likely the best hope for the Packers offense against Detroit on Thursday. Both are too cheap for their recent workload, but too expensive for their recent (receiving) performances. That speaks to how dreadful Green Bay’s passing attack has been — but there have been some slight signs of life.
The Lions are a pass-funnel defense, broadly speaking, ranking third in yards allowed per carry but 18th in yards allowed per pass. Their pass rush has been fairly mediocre, ranking 18th in adjusted sack rate on the season. That should give some opportunities for downfield shots to Reed and Watson, both of whom have fairly deep average depths of target (aDOT) numbers.
Reed is probably the safer play here, with a shallower aDOT and more total opportunities per game thanks to the occasional rushing play. However, Watson’s big-play ability makes him an interesting tournament choice. His aDOT ranks second in the league among players with at least 30 targets, giving him a real chance to break a long play or two here.
The pair top our Pts/Sal projections for the Thanksgiving slate, with Watson having a slight lead. I’d stick with Reed for cash games, but Watson is an excellent bring-back for Lions stacks in GPPs.
Quick Hits
The sun god himself, Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,500), is a close second to Lamb for the top projecting wide receiver play this week. The model of consistency, he’s racked up at least 100 yards or a touchdown in every game this season. He’s more of a floor play than a ceiling play, however, with his best performance at “just” 33.50 DraftKings points, which is still excellent but not quite 4x his Thanksgiving salary. He’s probably a safer play than Lamb but far less likely to win you the week.
Both Brandon Aiyuk ($7,000) and Deebo Samuel ($5,900) have the juice to pop up for the occasional huge performance. They also have mediocre target shares relative to their salaries, thanks to all of the talent in San Francisco. I want some exposure to both, though I’m not particularly confident in either this week — or any week.
Terry McLaurin ($5,400) has at least seven targets in six straight weeks. However, he’s been held under 18 DraftKings points in all of those games. He’s unlikely to see an uptick in efficiency against the Cowboys — but he’s the likeliest bring back if building around Dallas stacks.
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NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Stud
Like his team’s receivers, George Kittle ($6,000) has an extremely wide range of outcomes. There are just not enough opportunities to go around in San Francisco, leaving one or two of their top players out of the fun on a weekly basis.
On the other hand, he also has a massive ceiling. Kittle can do a lot with just a few looks, as he showed in Week 10. Despite drawing just four targets that week, he turned in a 3/116/1 line good for 23.6 DraftKings points. That was the second of three straight 20+ point games. Another one would be a massive edge at a thin position on a smaller slate.
It’s not the cleanest setup in a likely blowout against a team that’s been tough against tight ends. Still, Kittle can win in any matchup, making him an interesting option if you can find the salary. His price tag could keep his ownership down, making him a “pay up to be contrarian” option.
Value
The Cowboys’ Jake Ferguson ($3,900) saw his streak of three straight games with a touchdown snapped last week, thanks to a vulturing by backup Luke Schoonmaker ($2,600) in garbage time. Still, Ferguson has a big role in this offense, coming in behind only Lamb in target share on the season.
That role is heavily concentrated in the red zone. He leads all Thanksgiving tight ends in opportunities inside the 10 and inside the 5-yard lines this season. That’s an especially valuable role on an offense that scores lots of touchdowns like the Cowboys.
It’s never easy to predict touchdowns, but you’ll likely need one from your tight end to win anything meaningful on the Thanksgiving slate. Ferguson is the best bet to get one, with a reasonable floor, thanks to his overall role as well.
Quick Hits
If not McLaurin, perhaps Logan Thomas ($3,500) can do enough to keep Washington’s offense in the game against Dallas. The one position the Cowboys have been weak against is tight end, with a slate-high positive 1.4 Opponent Plus/Minus allowed on the season. Thomas has rarely found the end zone this season, but has at least four catches in five straight games. Adding a score to that could be enough to provide the top tight end score on the slate.
GPP Roster Construction
The key to GPPs might just be in figuring out which underdog team puts up a fight here. Any of Seattle, Washington, or Green Bay keeping things competitive likely leads to their opponent having the top stack of the day.
The Commanders are by far the most aggressive of those three, with an absurd 71.5% pass play rate on the season. The likeliest scenario is those passes don’t do much good, but I still want to take some shots on their receivers — while pairing them with Lamb and Prescott.
I also want to mix in some thinner plays on each of my lineups since building unique rosters is an important step on a smaller slate. Players like the backup running backs listed above or Lions speedster Jameson Williams ($3,400). Williams has quietly seen his snap share increase in each of the last five weeks and just needs one big play to break the slate open at low ownership.
Late swapping is less important for big tournaments than cash games. Still, if you think your lineup is duplicated heading into the second or third game of the slate, it would make sense to try to pivot. Even if that means giving up a point or two in projections, a smaller shot at a solo win is worth more than a bigger shot at a chop.
Finally, consider builds with some salary left on the table. That’s generally the best way to avoid duplicates, especially with the field trying to load up on high-priced players.
Cash Games
It’s a challenge, but theoretically possible to fit all of Purdy, McCaffrey, Lamb, and St. Brown in a single lineup. The former pairing is my priority, as it locks in exposure to all of the 49ers scoring. I could see a case for fading one of Lamb or St. Brown, but ideally, we’d come into the game with both of the slate’s top wideouts.
That strategy (and most others) makes Zach Charbonnet a must. He’s cheap enough to provide salary relief, with a very strong floor. The other benefit is that McCaffrey and Purdy are both in the late game — so if your punt plays at other positions fail, you could pivot to less popular options with either of those spots.
Since that build also probably features a cheap Packers player (one of the receivers or tight end Tucker Craft ($2,500) and possibly a cheap Lion, you could even swap off of the chalky Lamb if your early game players struggle. Late swapping will be key for cash games on Thanksgiving.
The other option is to fade McCaffrey for one of the Detroit backs, which opens up plenty of roster flexibility at other positions. That could include getting from Purdy to Prescott at quarterback but having no 49ers feels like a scary way to play.
At tight end, I’d love to get to Ferguson or Thomas but I would be fine punting with Craft if it makes a roster work. Similarly, Dallas ($3,800) and Detroit ($3,200) are easily the best defense options — but I’m not going to give up value at other positions to get there.
