We’re back to the standard mid-season 10-game slate this week, with a combination of bye weeks and a London game limiting the number of teams playing in the Sunday afternoon window.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Stud: Josh Allen ($7,700) Buffalo Bills (-4) at Indianapolis Colts (46.5 Total)
Josh Allen leads our median and ceiling projections — at an identical salary — for the second straight week. Last week, he faced a Dolphins defense that ranks 27th in DVOA against the pass and finished with a solid 23.1 DraftKings score.
This week, he faces a Colts defense that ranks 28th against the pass and gets to take the show indoors to Lucas Oil Stadium. He could also have Amari Cooper ($5,800) back after the midseason acquisition missed last week, which would help Allen’s passing numbers. Be sure to monitor the news leading up to lock.
All in all it’s a fairly similar setup, though the spread being slightly closer is a good sign for the chances of this game shooting out. The Colts also play about three seconds faster per play than Miami, which theoretically should up the play volume.
Allen has been consistently solid while falling short of week-winning scores (relative to his salary) all season. There’s a chance he breaks out of that this week due to the above factors, but the likeliest outcome is another good game that falls short of being a tournament winner.
Value: Sam Darnold ($6,200) Minnesota Vikings (-6.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (43.5 Total)
Depending on how much salary you want to save, there are value options across various price ranges in Week 10. As one would expect, the cheapest options have fairly major flaws, while the more comfortable options come at a premium.
Darnold is a solid middle ground in that discussion, with a reasonable $6,200 salary. He’s taking on a terrible Jaguars defense that ranks dead last in DVOA against the pass and allows the most points to quarterbacks.
The limiting factor for Darnold might be the game script, with Minnesota favored by 6.5 points. However, the Vikings rank fourth in pass rate over expectation (PROE), which indicates they’ll keep throwing unless the game is well out of hand. If it is, Darnold probably already got there.
I’m hoping to be able to find the salary for Darnold in cash games this week, but I will, at a minimum, have some GPP exposure to Vikings stacks. He ranks third in Pts/Sal projection on the slate.
Quick Hits
Mac Jones $4,400: With Trevor Lawrence missing Week 10 at a minimum, the Jaguars are turning to former first round pick Mac Jones at quarterback. Jones is extremely cheap at $4,400…with not much else going for him. He’s taking on an elite Vikings defense that has held QBs to a -6.1 Opponent Plus/Minus on the season. His 15.6-point projection is enough to lead the slate in Pts/Sal, but it’s a tough click to make.
Justin Herbert ($5,200): The midpoint of Darnold and Jones in Justin Herbert. He has a below-average but not terrible matchup with the Titans and an acceptable 23.25-point team total. On the encouraging side, the Chargers rank second in PROE since their Week 5 bye, so most of those points could come through the air. I prefer Darnold for the matchup and talent around him, but I would have no problem shifting to Herbert if I needed the extra $1,000 in salary.
Brock Purdy ($6,500): There was a stretch last season where Brock Purdy consistently outperformed expectations, topping 25 DraftKings points five times in a six-week span. When the 49ers offense is at full strength, Purdy can put up big scores just by getting the ball in the hands of his talented weaponry and letting them turn checkdowns into touchdowns. That time could be upon us this year, as San Francisco gets back Christian McCaffrey, with George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, and Jauan Jennings all healthy. Figuring out which pieces to stack him with is tough, but Purdy should have a solid day either way.
Jalen Hurts ($7,800): The Eagles’ team total trails only the 49ers this week as they take on the imploding Cowboys in Dallas. The game script and the Cowboys’ relative defensive strengths should tilt things to the run in this matchup — but that’s not always a bad thing for Hurts. You probably need multiple rushing touchdowns from Hurts for him to get there, but he’s accomplished that in two of the last three weeks.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Stud: Bijan Robinson ($7,700) Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) at New Orleans Saints (46.5 Total)
Robinson trails only his counterpart Alvin Kamara ($8,100) in median and ceiling projection at running back in Week 10. However, he’s a bit cheaper and has much less downside risk of a total offensive implosion than Kamara and the Saints do.
The Falcons rank 30th in PROE, are slight favorites and are taking on the team with the worst opponent plus/minus to the position. They also have the slate’s best offensive line matchup. It doesn’t get much better than that for the offense as a whole, and Robinson is a big driver of that.
The bigger risk for Robinson is that the Falcons give too many of his touches to Tyler Allgeier ($5,200), but Robinson has maintained top-10 marks in touch share and overall touches this season. He could also have an expanded passing game role if either Drake London or Kyle Pitts miss time this week — both are truly questionable.
Robinson is a very safe play even with both of his teammates active, but he’s in a smash spot if either of them miss.
Value: Aaron Jones ($6,700) Minnesota Vikings (-6.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (43.5 Total)
Given the chances that Minnesota totally blows Jacksonville away this week, it makes sense that their starting running back and quarterback both project well. While it’s a slightly better matchup for the passing game, the Jags defense ranks 30th in points allowed to running backs.
It would be tough for both Jones and Darnold to post week-winning scores, but rostering both should provide a rock-solid floor. It’s hard to imagine a scenario where they don’t’ collectively account for a few touchdowns. If salary were easier to find this week, I’d strongly consider that build for cash games.
Jones has enough passing game involvement and touchdown equity to have an outside shot at a ceiling game, but the real appeal is his floor. He leads the position in Pts/Sal on a tough week for value.
Quick Hits
Christian McCaffrey ($8,000): CMC makes his long-awaited return this week after missing the first half of the season with Achilles tendonitis in both legs. The likeliest outcome here is a limited workload for McCaffrey, but the 4-4 49ers don’t totally have the luxury of easing him in. I’m not playing him in tighter builds, but I also wouldn’t be shocked if he had a vintage 20+ touch day. I’ll have some GPP exposure, as this also might be the cheapest we see him all season.
Alvin Kamara ($8,100): With the Saints offense extremely beat up and their head coach fired, there are two ways to view Kamara this week. On the one hand, he’s the only productive member of the Saints offense, who are taking on a medicore Falcons defense. Kamara leads the NFL in opportunity share and should continue to do so. The downside is the entire offense falling flat wouldn’t be a shock, which doesn’t leave many paths to fantasy success for anyone. That’s not enough risk (at least against Atlanta) to keep me off him entirely, but it might push me away for cash games.
Saquon Barkley ($8,300): The risk of Jalen Hurts vulturing rushing touchdowns makes Barkley a bit overpriced, but he’s in a great spot this week. Dallas has been horrible against running backs all season, and Barkley has at least 100 rushing yards in three straight games. If AJ Brown misses the week with his injury, Barkley’s ceiling expands even more due to a likely higher target share, so keep an eye on the news.
D’Andre Swift ($6,500): Swift might be one of the few truly underpriced backs on the slate. After a horrible start to the season, he’s topped salary-based expectations in five straight, with four of those going over 20 DraftKings points. Now he is a big home favorite against the league’s 28th-ranked rushing defense by DVOA, so it’s hard to see how he fails here.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Stud: Justin Jefferson ($8,800) Minnesota Vikings (-6.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (43.5 Total)
Of all the Vikings projecting well this week, Jefferson has the biggest gap to his closest competitors. No other wide receiver is projecting for more than 17 points, while Jefferson’s median is over 20.
All the reasons this is a great spot for Minnesota have been hit on, and they all extend to Jefferson. Besides the strong offensive environment generally, he has the best target share in the league. We can’t ask for much more than that from a wide receiver.
Jefferson is extremely unlikely for a truly disappointing game here but he could disappoint relative to his salary if the Vikings get an early lead on the ground (or through their defense). That makes it somewhat harder to pay up for him in cash, but he’s an elite GPP play.
Value: Drake London ($6,700) Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) at New Orleans Saints (46.5 Total)
Like the Vikings, it’s an excellent spot for the Falcons offense this week. The Saints were already playing poorly on defense but traded away top cornerback Marshon Lattimore this week. That should make things easy for the Falcons passing attack — and, by extension, London.
He’s their clear No. 1 option, though it’s a somewhat spread-out group with five players seeing at least 10% of the targets on the season. That’s a big step down from the rate Jefferson is seeing — but he’s more than $2,000 cheaper.
London exited the Falcons Week 9 matchup early with a hip injury but is reportedly on track to play this week. That’s another (mild) concern, but we should know more by Sunday morning. He leads the position in Pts/Sal projection on a tough slate for value.
Quick Hits
Davantae Adams ($7,000): Adams turned 11 targets into a 7/91/1 line in his second game as a Jet and now has an even better matchup against the Cardinals in Week 10. It’s hard to feel good about the Jets offense after their season started slowly, but they’ve picked it up since adding Adams to the fold. He’s a solid pivot from Jefferson, especially if you’re concerned with London’s health. Our projections prefer Adams to Garret Wilson ($7,200), but either could have a good game.
Ladd McConkey ($5,900): As mentioned above, the Chargers are second in the NFL in PROE in the last four weeks. McConkey is averaging seven targets per game in that span. They draw a pass-funnel(ish) Titans defense, though it’s expected to be a low-scoring game. He’s a bit underpriced this week, though it’s not exactly a smash spot. Quentin Johnson ($4,900) is also in a solid spot following his Week 9 breakout, but he’s fairly boom or bust.
Calvin Ridley ($5,700): In the two games since Deandre Hopkins ($5,300) was traded to the Chiefs, Ridley has seen 23 total targets. Those targets are, unfortunately, coming from Mason Rudolph ($4,900), but they’re still targets. He has a tough matchup against the Chargers secondary this week, but volume is king in DFS.
Josh Downs ($6,200): Downs has at least nine targets in every game with Joe Flacco ($5,500) under center for the Colts, with his worst game in that span going for six catches and 60 yards. That’s a solid floor, and a game environment where the Colts are likely to be chasing points gives him the upside for more.
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NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Stud: Travis Kelce ($6,000) Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5) vs. Denver Broncos (41.5 Total)
Travis Kelce has turned back the clock the last two weeks. He’s put on a pair of vintage performances, with a 24/190/1 line over two games on a combined 28 targets. That probably wasn’t Kansas City’s plan heading into the season, but injuries at wide receiver have forced them to lean heavily on their veteran star.
He comes into Week 10 with the second-highest ceiling projection on the slate and a strong matchup against a Broncos defense that defends perimeter receivers well but is relatively weak against tight ends. That could mean another heavy dose of Kelce, as Kansas City remains thin at wide receiver even after acquiring Deandre Hopkins ($5,300).
We’d be more than willing to pay $6,000 for a wideout averaging 14 targets over the last two weeks, so we should be thrilled to have that opportunity at tight end. The one drawback here is the likely game script — the Chiefs are heavy favorites, and Kelce’s big games have both been one-score wins for the Chiefs.
Still, if this one turns into a blowout, it’s likely that Kelce got his along the way. That gives him a solid floor, with plenty of GPP uspide, thanks to his PPR potential.
Value: Will Dissly ($3,100) Los Angeles Chargers (-7.5) at Tenessee Titans
Dissly was the pick in this space last week before the news made it clear that Mike Gesicki was the obvious value play. This week, Gesicki is off the main slate, and former value options like Cade Otton ($5,500) are expensive enough to be tougher clicks.
As mentioned previously in this article, the Chargers have committed to the pass in recent weeks. While that has primarily benefited the wide receivers, Dissly is still averaging a solid 6.5 targets in that time frame.
He hasn’t done a ton with those targets, but he has a reasonable matchup against a Titans team that’s easier to throw than run on. He’s also due for some touchdown regression, as he’s been held out of the end zone all season.
He’s the best Pts/Sal play at the position, which makes him a strong play on a tough week for value.
Quick Hits
Cade Otton ($5,500): Otton is no longer cheap, but he doesn’t need to be with his strong recent production. Since the Bucs lost Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, Otton has been arguably their top pass catcher. He’s seen at least 10 targets in three straight weeks, topping 21 DraftKings points each time. Nothing about the matchup or likely game flow presents any reason that should change this week. He trails only Dissly in Pts/Sal projection on the slate.
George Kittle ($5,800): The 49ers are back to their full complement of pass catchers (save Brandon Aiyuk), which is a positive and a negative for Kittle. On the one hand, he has more target competition. On the other, there should be even more touchdowns to go around for the 49ers. Kittle’s production is fairly touchdown-dependent, but he’s excelled at finding them. He has six in eight healthy games this season.
Taysom Hill ($4,000): It was a somewhat predictable Taysom Hill game last week, with the jack-of-all-trades weapon scoring 16 DraftKings points with rushing, receiving, and passing stats. New Orleans could continue to utilize him this week, particularly in the running game, where they’re extremely thin. It’s not often we can bank on a handful of carries and a goal-line rushing role at the tight end position, and Hill is still underpriced for his role.
TJ Hockenson ($4,700): Hockenson was eased into his return from IR last week, playing less than 50% of the snaps and drawing just four targets. This week, he’s $500 cheaper and could see his role slowly begin to expand as he works his way back from a 2023 ACL injury. It might not be this week, but Hockenson will have some big games in the second half of 2024 — and it’s better to be early on them than late.
Kyle Pitts ($4,800): There are a few too many mouths to feed in Atlanta, making Pitts a risky weekly option. He had just one target last week but put up 25 DraftKings points in Week 8. This week lends itself to another big game for Pitts, with the opposing Saints ranking last on the slate in Opponent Plus/Minus. His value is even higher if London is inactive or limited, so keep an eye on the situation on Sunday morning.
GPP Roster Construction
Finding the salary to play the high-priced studs this week will be the key to the slate. There are some obvious standouts at most positions, with Justin Jefferson and Alvin Kamara both well clear of the competition at their positions.
Unfortunately it’s not a great week for salary savers, with no obvious injury-related plays. That means we’ll have to take some bets on thinner options for GPPs.
I’ll be leaning into the correlation around those plays as I hunt for value. The odds of cheap players hitting goes up in shootouts, so it’s worth building around games rather than specific players. The 49ers-Bucs game stands out with its 50.5-point total.
It’s also a perfect example of leaning into the correlation element. San Francisco’s expensive pieces probably don’t get there without Tampa Bay finding some success. On the Bucs side, they don’t have a player priced over $6,000, and their wide receivers are all $4,100 or less.
That’s a general example, of course. I have some specific plays I’m building around in my SimLabs building blocks article.
Cash Games
It’s an extremely tough week for cash games. There are no obvious values, and the strong plays at every position are fairly expensive.
I’m starting with running back, where I’d like to play both Alvin Kamara and Bijan Robinson with one of De’Andre Swift or Aaron Jones. However, it saves a ton of salary to play two of the cheaper options with one of Kamara or Robinson.
That allows an upgrade at quarterback from the Herbert (or lower) tier up to Brock Purdy or Sam Darnold, both of whom are much safer plays. I really want to find the salary for Purdy, thanks to the 49ers slate-leading (comfortably) 28.5 team total.
That doesn’t leave much for wide receivers, but I’m comfortable punting one of the spots with a near-minimum option like Tyler Boyd ($3,500) or Calvin Austin ($3,600). Either player could give you a zero, but it doesn’t matter if the rest of your lineup hits. The best cash game options at wideout are in the mid-range, where Ladd McConkey, Drake London, Josh Downs, and a few others are near the top of the Pts/Sal projections.
At tight end, my biggest goal is saving salary. That probably means Dissly, though it’s hard to get excited about. Defense is at least easy, with Chicago ($3,000) somewhat cheap, in an excellent matchup, and 6.5-point home favorites against a rookie quarterback. Don’t think too hard there.
