I started playing DFS on DraftStreet in 2013. For the next six years, I primarily played cash games because I was in love with the slow, methodical grind, along with the safety that comes from playing a format where you only have to beat one other person or roughly half the field if you’re in 50/50s or double-ups.
Nowadays, I’ve decided to pull the ripcord on the safety net so that I could seek out more upside.
The hardest part of switching to GPP only? Getting comfortable with losing … a lot more often. However, with proper game selection and bankroll management, all you need is one or two nice scores to be in the black when the season ends.
One of my favorite ways to find these plays is by using the Minimal Tournament Model that I created late last year.
Additionally, our Lineup Builder is the perfect tool to use when hand-building your small-field GPP lineups. Otherwise, our Lineup Optimizer may be more your speed if you like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Anyway, each week I’ll be discussing various one-off plays you could target to fill out the rest of your tournament teams after you’ve settled on your stacks and core plays.
Note: I primarily play on DraftKings, so that’s where this analysis will focus.
NFL DFS Running Back Leverage Plays
It looks like most of the ownership this week is going to condense around Jeff Wilson, Leonard Fournette, Alvin Kamara, and Breece Hall among others.
None of those running backs are particularly expensive, so paying up at running back should naturally lead to a more unique roster construction this week. Derrick Henry is $8,200 on DraftKings and leads my inputs in ceiling projections, and he’s checking in at single-digit ownership as of Saturday morning. Henry has one of the higher Leverage Scores among running backs in our models.
Henry and Dalvin Cook are both interesting pay-up-to-be-contrarian plays this week. Matt Martin discusses them further in his running back breakdown.
Nick Chubb has a ceiling projection within two points of Kamara, but his ownership projection is nearly 16% less than Kamara’s. Chubb continues to produce every single week, but his ownership never reflects his production (Steelers game ownership is from a Showdown slate):
Chubb has as much multi-touchdown GPP-winning upside as any running back on any given slate. He currently has the fourth-highest Leverage Score in our models.
Leverage pool: Derrick Henry, Dalvin Cook, Nich Chubb, James Robinson, Damien Harris, Raheem Mostert
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Leverage Plays
As of Saturday morning, Tyler Lockett, Chris Olave, Chris Godwin, and Drake London are shaping up to be some of the highest rostered receivers on the slate.
Godwin is $600 cheaper than his price tag to start the season. The obvious leverage play here is to roster Mike Evans at $1,000 more and maybe half the ownership.
Justin Jefferson is the only receiver in my inputs that has a ceiling projection within five points of Cooper Kupp. Jefferson is projected for single-digit ownership vs. the lowly Bears — Jefferson has the third-highest Leverage Score in our models.
For those who don’t know, FantasyLabs subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
Similar to the Evans over Godwin play, DK Metcalf is $1,200 more expensive than Lockett and has a comparable ceiling projection — but comes in with substantially less ownership. He’ll draw a tougher matchup vs. Marshon Lattimore, but Metcalf is a strong tournament play.
Leverage pool: Justin Jefferson, Mike Evans, DK Metcalf, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, AJ Brown, Deebo Samuel, Garrett Wilson
NFL DFS Tight End Leverage Plays
Tyler Higbee is checking in with a massive ownership projection (above 20%) for Week 5. This should make going contrarian rather easy this week. David Njoku, Zach Ertz, and Dallas Goedert are also in the mix, but not nearly as high as Higbee.
Goedert has the fourth-highest ownership projection among tight ends, but it’s still nearly 15-18% lower than Higbee.
Leverage pool: Dallas Goedert, T.J. Hockenson, Pat Freiermuth, Gerald Everett
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