NFL DFS Picks: Thanksgiving Slate DraftKings Breakdown

Thanksgiving food may be overrated, but the three-game DFS slate makes it all worthwhile. It’s an interesting strategy challenge, with late swaps playing an especially important role.

If you’re unwilling or unable to late swap, my advice would be to sit this one out — especially in cash games. We’ll talk more about the strategy reasons why later on in the article.

Also worth keeping in mind: lock is at 12:30 p.m. ET, rather than the usual 1:00.

In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.

Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.

Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.

You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

NFL DFS Quarterback Picks

Stud: Jordan Love ($6,300) Green Bay Packers (-3.5) vs. Miami Dolphins (47 Total)

It’s a pretty rough slate for quarterbacks on Thanksgiving. We’ve got a pair of backups thrust into starting duty among the six options, limiting our choices.

At the top, the conversation comes down to Jordan Love or Jared Goff ($6,500). Their teams have the two best totals on the slate by a decent margin, with Goff’s Lions four points ahead of Love’s Packers. However, Green Bay is favored by just 3.5 against the Dolphins, while Detroit is a double-digit favorite.

Both teams have heavily negative Pass Rate Over Expectation marks. That makes it tough for quarterbacks to put up solid scores if the game gets out of hand, as both teams will likely lean more heavily on the run. Love has a shot at ending up in a shootout against the Dolphins, giving him a considerably higher ceiling.

It’s not a great matchup for either player though, so it might not be worth spending up. Love is projecting 0.3 points ahead of Goff, but neither are solid Pts/Sal options.

Value: Caleb Williams ($5,300) Chicago Bears (+10) vs. Detroit Lions (48 Total)

On the other side of the coin in Detroit, Caleb Williams and the Bears are big underdogs. That should force them to the air frequently in this game as they chase points against the Lions in a dome.

That’s no guarantee that it will turn into DFS production, of course. Detroit has allowed just two quarterbacks to top 20 DraftKings points this season, Geno Smith and (of all people) Mason Rudolph. Rudolph got there mainly with his legs, and Smith contributed 38 yards rushing as well.

That means the best chance for Williams to be productive here might be on the ground. He’s gone for at least 33 yards rushing in more than half the Bears’ games this season though he’s yet to find the end zone. Still, that gives him a strong floor relative to his price tag.

Not that Williams couldn’t get it done through the air. He threw for 340 yards and two scores against the Vikings’ number-two-ranked pass defense by DVOA last week. Of course, he now faces the only team ahead of Minnesota in that category.

Either way, he’s a solid play at his salary based on volume alone. It would be hard for him to truly fail at his price tag, even in a tough matchup. He leads the position in Pts/Sal by a fairly wide margin.

Quick Hits

Tua Tagovailoa ($6,000): The other high-end QB option this week is Tagovailoa, who threw for four touchdowns against the Patriots last week. He probably won’t do that again this week, given a much tougher matchup with the Packers. However, with the weapons around him in Miami, there’s a chance that some of his dump-off passes will turn into big plays. We haven’t seen much of that since his return from a concussion early this season, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility.

Cooper Rush ($4,800): We’ve got the backup QB bowl in Dallas for the afternoon game. Rush has made two starts for the Cowboys since Dak Prescott went down and is surprisingly averaging over 19 DraftKings points in those games. Both of those came against better pass defenses than the Giants, who rank 29th in DVOA. Considering Dallas has both a higher team total and a higher PROE than Chicago, there’s an argument he’s a better play than Williams. My biggest concern with Rush is that Dallas finally decides to give Trey Lance a look after trading for him, but that hasn’t been the case so far. He trails only Williams so far and might be my favorite play at the position.

Tommy Devito ($4,500): The other ugly option on Thanksgiving is DeVito. He’s taking on the Cowboys, who have by far the worst Opponent Plus/Minus allowed to QBs on the slate. DeVito isn’t exactly an NFL-caliber QB, but Dallas isn’t exactly an NFL-caliber defense. Plus, we’re projecting DeVito for the lowest ownership on a slate where it’s entirely possible no quarterback does much of note. At his salary, that might be enough to sneak into the winning lineup.

Offensive Line Matchup Projections:

Each week, I write an article breaking down the line play for the week’s slate from a DFS perspective. Check the linked article for a deeper dive into what the numbers mean. Here’s the data table for the Thanksgiving slate:

NFL DFS Running Back Picks