Week 14 finishes with a two-game Monday Night slate. Both games kick off at 8:15 PM ET, with the Titans traveling to Miami and the Packers traveling to face the Giants.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Stud
Tua Tagovailoa ($7,300) is in a price range of his own tonight, priced at $1,300 more than the next option. Tagovailoa and the Dolphins cruised to a win their last time out, handling the Commanders 45-15. He threw for 280 yards and two touchdowns on just 24 attempts, finishing with 19.2 DraftKings points. Week 12 was a similar story, as Miami cruised to a 21-point victory against the Jets, and they didn’t need Tua’s arm much.
Tennessee ranks in the bottom ten in completion rate and yards per attempt allowed. Miami is sitting as a two-touchdown favorite, which brings to question how much volume the Dolphins’ passing game will have.
However, Miami has an implied team total of over four touchdowns, and any lead they build will likely be on the back of Tagovailoa. He’s the best bet for raw points, but he isn’t my favorite option on the slate.
Value
Jordan Love ($6,000) has been slinging it, topping 23 DraftKings points in three straight games, as the Packers have rattled off three straight wins as underdogs to put themselves right back in the playoff picture.
Love sliced and diced an elite Chiefs defense in Week 13, averaging 7.4 yards per attempt and throwing three touchdowns. This Giants’ defense has been better as of late, allowing just 6.8 yards per attempt over the past seven games. However, they got lit up by Dak Prescott and beat up on the likes of Aidan O’Connell, Zach Wilson, Sam Howell twice, and whatever you’d call the quarterback room in New England.
I love the savings you get from using Love over Tagovailoa, and he’ll be lower-owned. He also offers an element of upside on the ground that Tagovailoa doesn’t possess.
Quick Hits
It gets very thin very quickly, with WIll Levis ($5,300) and Tommy DeVito ($5,100) rounding out the quarterback options on tonight’s slate. The way to beat this Packers defense is on the ground, and I’m not too confident in DeVito’s ability to efficiently sling it without an outsized amount of volume.
Will Levis is somewhat appealing, even though he’s stunk out loud from a fantasy perspective lately. He took the league by storm with his 26.62-point performance in his debut against Atlanta in Week 8. Tennessee has proceeded to let him cook, and Levis hasn’t topped 13.6 DraftKings points in the five games since.
Miami has been a solid defense as of late, but Levis may have enough volume to post a respectable score. Miami is a two-touchdown favorite, and if they can get out to a lead quickly, Levis could see some elevated volume and potentially reach value in garbage time.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Stud
Despite only four teams playing, we have multiple appealing options for the running back position. De’Von Achane ($7,000) is my favorite spend-up option. Achane was productive in his first full game in weeks, taking 17 carries for 73 yards and two touchdowns while catching three of four targets for 30 yards.
Raheem Mostert ($6,700) actually saw more work than Achane in the first half of last week’s contest. However, it appears that Miami is interested in keeping his workload light when they can down the stretch. This week could be another great spot, with Miami sitting as a two-touchdown home favorite.
Tennessee has been leaky on the ground as of late, and this backfield will surely see a ton of volume. Achane profiles great tonight, with Mostert making sense as a GPP pivot.
Value
With Aaron Jones ($6,000) not expected to suit up, AJ Dillon ($5,300) laps the position in Points/Salary and Projected Plus/Minus. He was inefficient early in the year when Jones was missing time, but he appears to have hit his stride as of late.
He’s had at least 17 opportunities in three straight games, as he handled 18 carries and saw one target last week against the Chiefs. Dillon should be able to find efficiency in this spot, as New York has allowed the third-most yards per carry to opposing running backs.
Quick Hits
Saquon Barkley ($7,100) and Derrick Henry ($6,500) are two appealing options on the high end but with glaring question marks. Henry has turned it around as of late, with two touchdowns in each of his past two games and 48.6 DraftKings points over the stretch.
I’m more worried about Henry than Barkley, as the Dolphins have allowed the seventh-fewest DraftKings points to opposing running backs, and they’re massive underdogs. We’ve seen Tyjae Spears ($5,000) take a lot of work when Tennessee gets behind, and I’m expecting a similar situation tonight.
The Packers have allowed the eighth-most DraftKings points to opposing backs, and if the Giants have a hope of staying competitive, it’s likely on the back of Barkley. They’ve been especially poor as of late, as Green Bay has allowed the second-most yards per carry in the league over their past four games.
Don’t forget to check out our SImLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineup using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Stud
This section can practically write itself since Tyreek Hill ($9,200) is on the slate. Hill would likely be one of the chalkiest players on a main slate at this price at this matchup. Now we have a two-game slate that doesn’t have a single other player above $7,500.
I’m curious as to how expensive Hill would need to be that people would be skittish about clicking his name. He has the highest median projection by over six points. If you combine the running backs and receivers, Hill has over an 11-point higher median projection than the sixth-highest priced option. It’s truly incredible. He’d have to get above $11,000 before I’d bat an eye on this slate.
Tennessee has allowed the third-most DraftKings points to opposing receivers. Despite a slate-high price tag, Hill leads the position in Points/Salary.
Value
There is a bevy of options to choose for the value of choice, but Dontayvion Wicks ($3,800) is my meal of choice. With Christian Watson sidelined, Wicks will see an increase in routes. He’s been productive when given a chance, with four or more targets in five straight games and over 7 DraftKings points in four straight.
Wicks played on over 60% of the snaps in two of the first three weeks when Watson was sidelined. He still had Samori Toure working in and taking time, but he’s now an afterthought. Malik Heath ($3,200) will mix in as the WR4 and take a little bit of work away, but Wicks’ role is secure tonight.
New York has allowed the third-most DraftKings points to opposing receivers on the year, making his outlook even better. Wicks (and Hill) will be locked into every lineup that I make.
Quick Hits
Jaylen Waddle ($7,500) is likely the only player who can approach Hill’s ceiling tonight. He’s flashed some upside this year despite being in Hill’s shadow for the most part. He had 28.1 DraftKings points in Week 8 against New England and 22.4 points in Week 12 against the Jets. He benefits from the same matchup as Hill and will be far less owned (albeit still likely the second or third-highest-owned receiver on the slate).
DeAndre Hopkins ($6,100) has been Levis’s go-to guy. Hopkins caught five of twelve targets for 75 yards and a touchdown last week. The matchup is uninviting, as Miami has allowed the second-fewest yards per catch to opposing receivers since Jalen Ramsey returned.
Romeo Doubs ($5,000) and Jayden Reed ($4,700) are priced as if Christian Watson were playing. Reed runs most of his routes from the slot, where New York has allowed the third-highest catch rate and ninth-highest yards per target. He’s seen a 25% target rate per route run with Watson off the field, compared to 24% for Doubs. Reed also sees usage on the ground, and he’s my preferred option of the two.
Jalin Hyatt ($3,400) showed out before the bye, catching five of six targets for 109 yards. Hyatt has over a third of the team’s air yards with DeVito under center. He’s my preferred option on the Giants.
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NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Stud
Congratulations, Chig Okonkwo ($3,100)! You’re being referred to as a stud for likely the first time in your career. It’s solely due to price, my man. Darren Waller is almost surely to miss, and you’re the most expensive tight end.
He’s picked up as of late, seeing five and six targets over the past two games, with 17.9 DraftKings points. Miami has allowed the 11th-most receptions to tight ends on the year, and Tennessee is likely to have elevated pass volume. Only two tight ends piqued my interest on Monday Night. Okonkwo isn’t my favorite, but he’s certainly in play.
Value
Tucker Kraft ($3,000) is tied atop the slate in Points/Salary with Tyreek Hill and AJ Dillon. Kraft has had two full games as the starter, with two catches for 15 yards and a touchdown and three catches for 37 yards. He also could be in line for more volume, as the injury to Christian Watson opens up some target volume.
New York has allowed the sixth-fewest DraftKings points to opposing tight ends, but tight-end matchups can be flukey, and Kraft is cheap on a slate barren of options at the position.
Quick Hits
Daniel Bellinger ($2,800) is currently listed as questionable with an illness but is expected to play. He’s played on about 90% of the snaps since Week 8, seeing three targets in each of Weeks 9, 10, and 11. If he doesn’t suit up, Lawrence Cager ($2,500) would likely take the bulk of the tight end work.
Durham Smythe ($2,500) plays on about two-thirds of Miami’s snaps, with Julian Hill ($2,500) soaking up the rest. Neither see much volume and especially with how cheap Kraft and Okonkwo are, there’s no reason to go here.
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