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NFL DFS Picks: Landon’s Locks for Week 1

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There are an abundance of tools at FantasyLabs to use for your NFL DFS lineups each week. Our most popular tools are our NFL Player Models, which house our NFL DFS projections from Sean Koerner.

You can use these projections in our models with our Lineup Builder to hand-build your lineups or use our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups for your NFL DFS tournaments.

In this article, we will go position by position, highlighting my favorite plays for both cash games and single-entry/three-max GPP contests. These plays are also viable in large field tournaments but do not focus on ownership percentages.

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NFL DFS Quarterback Picks 

Jalen Hurts ($6,800 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) Philadelphia Eagles @ Detroit Lions

Hurts averaged 21.7 DraftKings points per game last season in his first full year as a starter, which ranked him fifth among signal callers behind Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson, and Kyler Murray. Pretty good company. The Eagles upgraded their already strong offense this offseason by trading for superstar A.J Brown from the Titans.

He will join second-year stud wideout DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert, making the Eagles one of the most formidable receiving corps in football.

This week’s matchup for Hurts couldn’t be better, as the Lions were one of the worst teams in the NFL last season at defending opposing quarterbacks. They allowed the sixth-fewest pass attempts in the league last year but allowed the 10th-most passing yards, a rather impressive feat. This was mainly due to their lack of pressure, as they got to opposing signal callers just 29% of the time, which was better than only the Falcons.

Hurts has an elite floor/ceiling combo in a spot where the Eagles have a 26.5 implied team total, and his $6,800 tag on DraftKings makes him one of the best values on the slate.

He leads all our quarterbacks in Projected Plus/Minus in our projections.


Lamar Jackson (7,300 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel) Baltimore Ravens @ New York Jets

Jackson only finished 11 games last year due to injuries but was his usual elite self, averaging 22.3 DraftKings points. He’s back healthy just in time for this pristine matchup against the hapless Jets. Like the Lions, New York generated zero pressure last season, ranking 30th in the NFL in that department.

The Ravens are 6.5-point road favorites in this game, and we know Jackson accounts for such a high percentage of his team’s scoring due to his rushing ability.

The Ravens are probably better off if Joe Flacco starts this game, as Zach Wilson is a pick-six waiting to happen. Either way, Baltimore should be able to score at will in this spot, and Jackson’s ceiling is as high as any QB on the slate.

Jalen Hurts is the better cash play for $500 less, but Jackson is also fine and is the preferred tourney option.

NFL DFS Running Back Picks

Christian McCaffrey ($8,500 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel) Carolina Panthers vs. Cleveland Browns

This will not be a long writeup, as you certainly do not need me to tell you how elite CMC is. He played just seven games last season due to injury but scored over 24.7 DraftKings points in four of those seven. He is a true unicorn and no other running back has his outrageous receiving role. Baker Mayfield will sadly be the best quarterback he’s ever played with, which should elevate the Carolina offense as a whole.

Despite playing a stingy Cleveland defense, there is no one on this slate with his floor/ceiling combo. He will not be $8,500 again this season, barring injury, so now is our chance to roster the best player in fantasy football at a discounted cost.

He’s the first guy you should plug in on your cash game rosters.


Aaron Jones ($6,700 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel) Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings

Davante Adams is gone, leaving a very barren group of skill players for Aaron Rodgers to work with this season. We know he trusts Aaron Jones implicitly, and Jones’ splits when Adams doesn’t play are staggering. He is dirt cheap in a rock-solid matchup against a bottom-11 rush defense from a year ago.

We are unsure of Allen Lazard’s status in this game, meaning the Packers will be trotting out Sammy Watkins, Randall Cobb, and a pair of rookies. Jones will be the focal point of this offense at just $6,700.

A.J Dillon will mix in and probably play a decent bit, but Jones will be quite busy both in this game and this season. With Adams gone, expect the Packers to go more run-heavy at the goal line, which will only boost the touchdown expectation of Jones.

He’s one of the best plays on the board and is projecting as one of the better running back values in our projections.

NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks

Justin Jefferson ($7,800 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel) Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers

Jefferson has been a marvel in his young NFL career, as he owns the record for most receiving yards through a player’s first two seasons, which was previously held by Odell Beckham Jr. Despite the Packers’ strong defense, there is absolutely no stopping the former LSU Tiger, and when you factor in the other top WR options on this slate, Jefferson stands out the most.

We have him projected for the most DraftKings points at the position and the highest ceiling.

You get a $300 discount from Davante Adams, who has to deal with a tough Chargers defense in his first game with a new team and quarterback. Ja’Marr Chase has a tough division battle with the stingy Steelers D and has to compete for targets with fellow teammate Tee Higgins, while Deebo Samuel is not expected to see heavy volume with the Niners projected to control their game with the Bears.

Jefferson is by far the preferred spend-up option at WR this week.


Michael Pittman Jr. ($5,500 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel) Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans

This might be the biggest pricing error on the slate this week. Pittman is one of the best young wide receivers in football, and we currently have him projected for the fifth-most DraftKings points on the slate despite his ridiculous $5,500 salary. He also ranks as the second-best points per dollar play as well, trailing just Wan’Dale Robinson, who is the stone minimum $3,000.

Going from train-wreck Carson Wentz to Matt Ryan is a massive upgrade, and the Colts have very little else at WR with rookie Alec Pierce and oft-injure (but talented) Parris Campbell.

Pittman should see a massive target share in this game vs. one of the worst defenses in football. Lock and load.


JuJu Smith-Schuster ($5,200 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel) Kansas City Chiefs @ Arizona Cardinals

Another egregious pricing error DraftKings made this week was basically the entirety of the Chiefs receiving corps. We will get to Travis Kelce in a bit, but Smith-Schuster is one of the most mispriced receivers on this slate at just $5,200. Going from the corpse of Ben Roethlisberger in his final season to Patrick Mahomes could possibly be the biggest quarterback upgrade of all time.

If you think Smith-Schuster has any chance of regaining his pre-injury form, then he’s likely the cheapest he will be all season in a spot where the Chiefs have a slate-leading 29.75 implied team total. You will want a piece of this game, and rostering JuJu is a great way to do that if you prefer not to spend up at tight end.

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NFL DFS Tight End Picks

Travis Kelce ($6,600 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) Kansas City Chiefs @ Arizona Cardinals

Last year in Week 1, Kelce was $8,300, and that was WITH Tyreek Hill still on the Chiefs’ roster. Hill is in Miami this year, and Kelce gets a $1,700 price decrease from a year ago, despite going 5-108-1, 8-96-1, and 10-95-1 in three playoff games last season. If Kelce were a wide receiver, he would be the top value on the slate, as his 17.02 DraftKings point projection ranks only behind Tyreek Hill, Ja’Marr Chase, Davante Adams, and Justin Jefferson.

It always gets tricky when you pay up for tight end because it changes the entire construction of your roster. I am usually a proponent of paying down at the position, but this is a unique situation where Kelce is underpriced for his massive expected role in the best game environment of the weekend.

I would feel incredibly gross about fading both Kelce and JuJu, so you need to roster at least one, in my opinion. Kelce is the premier tight-end option on the board by far.


Irv Smith Jr. ($3,400 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel) Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers

If paying down at tight end, look no further than athletic marvel Irv Smith Jr., who most have forgotten about after he missed all of last season due to a knee injury and pretty much all of camp this year due to thumb surgery. However, he is back healthy and ready to rock against a Packers defense that was pretty susceptible to tight end production last season.

Smith ran a 4.63 40-yard dash at 242 pounds and was the Viking’s second-round pick in 2019. Minnesota let Ty Conklin walk in free agency, leaving Smith as the only game in town for quarterback Kirk Cousins, who we know has a very condensed target tree.

Smith has real touchdown upside in this spot and should easily exceed salary-based expectations at just $3,400.

There are an abundance of tools at FantasyLabs to use for your NFL DFS lineups each week. Our most popular tools are our NFL Player Models, which house our NFL DFS projections from Sean Koerner.

You can use these projections in our models with our Lineup Builder to hand-build your lineups or use our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups for your NFL DFS tournaments.

In this article, we will go position by position, highlighting my favorite plays for both cash games and single-entry/three-max GPP contests. These plays are also viable in large field tournaments but do not focus on ownership percentages.

Start Your PRO Trial Today

Lineup builder and optimizer

Real-time DFS models & projections

Data-driven analysis & tutorials

NFL DFS Cash Game + Single-Entry GPP Locks

NFL DFS Quarterback Picks 

Jalen Hurts ($6,800 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) Philadelphia Eagles @ Detroit Lions

Hurts averaged 21.7 DraftKings points per game last season in his first full year as a starter, which ranked him fifth among signal callers behind Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson, and Kyler Murray. Pretty good company. The Eagles upgraded their already strong offense this offseason by trading for superstar A.J Brown from the Titans.

He will join second-year stud wideout DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert, making the Eagles one of the most formidable receiving corps in football.

This week’s matchup for Hurts couldn’t be better, as the Lions were one of the worst teams in the NFL last season at defending opposing quarterbacks. They allowed the sixth-fewest pass attempts in the league last year but allowed the 10th-most passing yards, a rather impressive feat. This was mainly due to their lack of pressure, as they got to opposing signal callers just 29% of the time, which was better than only the Falcons.

Hurts has an elite floor/ceiling combo in a spot where the Eagles have a 26.5 implied team total, and his $6,800 tag on DraftKings makes him one of the best values on the slate.

He leads all our quarterbacks in Projected Plus/Minus in our projections.


Lamar Jackson (7,300 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel) Baltimore Ravens @ New York Jets

Jackson only finished 11 games last year due to injuries but was his usual elite self, averaging 22.3 DraftKings points. He’s back healthy just in time for this pristine matchup against the hapless Jets. Like the Lions, New York generated zero pressure last season, ranking 30th in the NFL in that department.

The Ravens are 6.5-point road favorites in this game, and we know Jackson accounts for such a high percentage of his team’s scoring due to his rushing ability.

The Ravens are probably better off if Joe Flacco starts this game, as Zach Wilson is a pick-six waiting to happen. Either way, Baltimore should be able to score at will in this spot, and Jackson’s ceiling is as high as any QB on the slate.

Jalen Hurts is the better cash play for $500 less, but Jackson is also fine and is the preferred tourney option.

NFL DFS Running Back Picks

Christian McCaffrey ($8,500 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel) Carolina Panthers vs. Cleveland Browns

This will not be a long writeup, as you certainly do not need me to tell you how elite CMC is. He played just seven games last season due to injury but scored over 24.7 DraftKings points in four of those seven. He is a true unicorn and no other running back has his outrageous receiving role. Baker Mayfield will sadly be the best quarterback he’s ever played with, which should elevate the Carolina offense as a whole.

Despite playing a stingy Cleveland defense, there is no one on this slate with his floor/ceiling combo. He will not be $8,500 again this season, barring injury, so now is our chance to roster the best player in fantasy football at a discounted cost.

He’s the first guy you should plug in on your cash game rosters.


Aaron Jones ($6,700 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel) Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings

Davante Adams is gone, leaving a very barren group of skill players for Aaron Rodgers to work with this season. We know he trusts Aaron Jones implicitly, and Jones’ splits when Adams doesn’t play are staggering. He is dirt cheap in a rock-solid matchup against a bottom-11 rush defense from a year ago.

We are unsure of Allen Lazard’s status in this game, meaning the Packers will be trotting out Sammy Watkins, Randall Cobb, and a pair of rookies. Jones will be the focal point of this offense at just $6,700.

A.J Dillon will mix in and probably play a decent bit, but Jones will be quite busy both in this game and this season. With Adams gone, expect the Packers to go more run-heavy at the goal line, which will only boost the touchdown expectation of Jones.

He’s one of the best plays on the board and is projecting as one of the better running back values in our projections.

NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks

Justin Jefferson ($7,800 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel) Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers

Jefferson has been a marvel in his young NFL career, as he owns the record for most receiving yards through a player’s first two seasons, which was previously held by Odell Beckham Jr. Despite the Packers’ strong defense, there is absolutely no stopping the former LSU Tiger, and when you factor in the other top WR options on this slate, Jefferson stands out the most.

We have him projected for the most DraftKings points at the position and the highest ceiling.

You get a $300 discount from Davante Adams, who has to deal with a tough Chargers defense in his first game with a new team and quarterback. Ja’Marr Chase has a tough division battle with the stingy Steelers D and has to compete for targets with fellow teammate Tee Higgins, while Deebo Samuel is not expected to see heavy volume with the Niners projected to control their game with the Bears.

Jefferson is by far the preferred spend-up option at WR this week.


Michael Pittman Jr. ($5,500 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel) Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans

This might be the biggest pricing error on the slate this week. Pittman is one of the best young wide receivers in football, and we currently have him projected for the fifth-most DraftKings points on the slate despite his ridiculous $5,500 salary. He also ranks as the second-best points per dollar play as well, trailing just Wan’Dale Robinson, who is the stone minimum $3,000.

Going from train-wreck Carson Wentz to Matt Ryan is a massive upgrade, and the Colts have very little else at WR with rookie Alec Pierce and oft-injure (but talented) Parris Campbell.

Pittman should see a massive target share in this game vs. one of the worst defenses in football. Lock and load.


JuJu Smith-Schuster ($5,200 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel) Kansas City Chiefs @ Arizona Cardinals

Another egregious pricing error DraftKings made this week was basically the entirety of the Chiefs receiving corps. We will get to Travis Kelce in a bit, but Smith-Schuster is one of the most mispriced receivers on this slate at just $5,200. Going from the corpse of Ben Roethlisberger in his final season to Patrick Mahomes could possibly be the biggest quarterback upgrade of all time.

If you think Smith-Schuster has any chance of regaining his pre-injury form, then he’s likely the cheapest he will be all season in a spot where the Chiefs have a slate-leading 29.75 implied team total. You will want a piece of this game, and rostering JuJu is a great way to do that if you prefer not to spend up at tight end.

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NFL DFS Tight End Picks

Travis Kelce ($6,600 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) Kansas City Chiefs @ Arizona Cardinals

Last year in Week 1, Kelce was $8,300, and that was WITH Tyreek Hill still on the Chiefs’ roster. Hill is in Miami this year, and Kelce gets a $1,700 price decrease from a year ago, despite going 5-108-1, 8-96-1, and 10-95-1 in three playoff games last season. If Kelce were a wide receiver, he would be the top value on the slate, as his 17.02 DraftKings point projection ranks only behind Tyreek Hill, Ja’Marr Chase, Davante Adams, and Justin Jefferson.

It always gets tricky when you pay up for tight end because it changes the entire construction of your roster. I am usually a proponent of paying down at the position, but this is a unique situation where Kelce is underpriced for his massive expected role in the best game environment of the weekend.

I would feel incredibly gross about fading both Kelce and JuJu, so you need to roster at least one, in my opinion. Kelce is the premier tight-end option on the board by far.


Irv Smith Jr. ($3,400 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel) Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers

If paying down at tight end, look no further than athletic marvel Irv Smith Jr., who most have forgotten about after he missed all of last season due to a knee injury and pretty much all of camp this year due to thumb surgery. However, he is back healthy and ready to rock against a Packers defense that was pretty susceptible to tight end production last season.

Smith ran a 4.63 40-yard dash at 242 pounds and was the Viking’s second-round pick in 2019. Minnesota let Ty Conklin walk in free agency, leaving Smith as the only game in town for quarterback Kirk Cousins, who we know has a very condensed target tree.

Smith has real touchdown upside in this spot and should easily exceed salary-based expectations at just $3,400.

About the Author

Landon has been playing DFS since 2014 and uses it to pay his bills to this day. He is a FantasyLabs contributor specializing in PGA and NFL. When he’s not grinding Strokes Gained data or target shares, he enjoys hanging with his mini poodle William.