Week 4 opens with an exciting Thursday night football matchup in Green Bay between the Lions and Packers at 8:15 p.m. ET. The Lions are listed as 1.5-point road favorites, while the total sits at 46 points.
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You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been a model of consistency to start the 2023 season and comes in as the highest-priced player on Thursday’s showdown slate. He has 19.2, 18.2, and 22.6 DraftKings points in Weeks 1-3.
He dealt with a toe injury going into last week’s game and still managed to catch nine of 12 targets for 102 yards. His role is immaculate, as he runs a route on practically every dropback and has seen a 38.7% target share to start the year.
He surprisingly didn’t get much done against Green Bay last year, with four catches for 55 yards on nine targets and six catches for 49 yards on nine targets across the two matchups. Jaire Alexander’s availability is worth following, as there’s a chance he’d shadow St. Brown if he suits up. Alexander missed Week 3’s matchup against New Orleans with a back injury.
It was announced Thursday morning that Aaron Jones will suit up for Thursday’s game. He missed Weeks 2 and 3 with a hamstring injury that he sustained in Week 1 against Chicago.
He started the year strong in Chicago, taking nine carries for 41 yards and a touchdown and catching two of four targets for 86 yards and a touchdown.
Jones initially said he could’ve returned to Week 1’s contest against Chicago but then proceeded to miss Weeks 2 and 3. He returned to practice late last week but ultimately missed the date with New Orleans. Was Green Bay trying to save Jones for this matchup?
Maybe, maybe not. Jones’ role is great, but the matchup is quietly difficult. Detroit has allowed just 2.9 yards per carry to opposing backs on the year. Atlanta boasts one of the top rushing attacks in the league, and we just saw them hold Bijan Robinson to 33 yards on 10 carries and Tyler Allgeier to 12 yards on seven carries.
We’ll see how ownership shakes out, but as of now, Jordan Love is my first click of any Packer. Love led a 17-point fourth-quarter comeback against New Orleans last week en route to 25.26 DraftKings points. He’s topped 20 DraftKings points in all three contests and added 9.9 points rushing last week.
He doesn’t have the rushing upside of some of the other quarterbacks in the league, but he did scramble nine times for 39 yards (and a score) last week. This yardage certainly isn’t out of the question for him, and adding roughly another touchdown scoring-wise through rushing yards would go a long way for his fantasy output.
It’s notable that Love has put up these numbers down his two best offensive linemen, with Jones missing the last two games and Christian Watson missing all three contests.
Back to Love, Watson’s return will certainly help, but he’s still posted great performances without him. Detroit is in the middle of the pack against opposing quarterbacks, and their defensive game plans have varied week-to-week based on matchup.
Love is a quarterback on a showdown slate, making him one of the top options on Thursday.
Jared Goff is notorious for his splits on the road versus at home, as he has just 15 passing touchdowns on the road since joining Detroit in 2021. Green Bay hasn’t allowed much production to opposing quarterbacks, but that’s come against Desmond Ridder, Justin Fields, and the combination of Derek Carr and Jameis Winston.
This Lions’ offense is better than the other three, undoubtedly. However, Goff did struggle against Green Bay last year, with 12.38 and 9.46 DraftKings points in their two matchups. Detroit is already missing their right guard for this matchup, and their starting left tackle is banged up but will play. Their backup left tackle is already ruled out as well, so with starter Taylor Decker missing this contest, they’re likely down to their third option.
However, like Love, Goff is one of the top options, simply from being a quarterback on a showdown slate.
Jahmyr Gibbs‘ outlook is slightly dinged as David Montgomery has been ruled in
Gibbs saw 17 carries for 80 yards last week while catching one of two targets for 2 yards. Gibbs was profiled as an elite pass-catching back coming out of college, so it was surprising to see him used to sparingly in Week 3. His usage with Montgomery out of the lineup was very promising, though, as he handled 18-of-26 backfield touches. He also didn’t see any pass-blocking snaps or any carry on a run play needing less than three yards.
It’s likely that Gibbs’ pass-game usage picks up here, as Green Bay has allowed the sixth-most receiving points to opposing backs on the year. He looks like another top target on this showdown slate.
Montgomery will likely take back the base-down work, with Gibbs mixing in a little bit and taking the passing-down work.
It’s easy to like, and somewhat easy to poke holes in the five highest-priced guys (St. Brown, Jones, Goff, Love, Gibbs). I think this is a spot to look at ownership when making decisions. Tentatively, I’d rank the five: Love, St. Brown, Jones, Goff, and Gibbs.
My plan with Aaron Jones is to either utilize him in the captain slot or fade him entirely.
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NFL DFS Midrange Picks
Romeo Doubs is the top-priced guy in the mid-tier section, and the return of Jones and Watson doesn’t really change his outlook too much.
It should soften his matchup, as Detroit’s defense will focus more attention on the other two. However, it’ll likely lessen his red zone role, as Doubs has three touchdowns over the first three weeks. He’s not a dynamite player, but he’s a solid receiver.
I personally prefer the talent of Christian Watson, despite his coming off of the injury. Watson battled injuries for the first half of last year and really didn’t solidify a role in the offense until mid-November.
Across the last eight games of 2022, Watson caught 31 of 52 targets for 523 yards and seven touchdowns while adding another touchdown on the ground. He saw a massive red zone role as well, with a 31% target share.
There are reports that he’ll be on a snap count, but I’m personally not too worried. Even if he is limited somewhat, he’s not a guy that’s reliant on volume to pay off. I’ll be in on Watson in his return.
It’s unclear what type of role David Montgomery will have returning from injury (that’s really the theme of this slate). I’m personally going to be in on Montgomery tonight. I almost have to by default, as it’s hard to play Gibbs at that price, and I’m likely not going to end up on Sam LaPorta.
LaPorta is a solid play, ranking second on the team in target share. His aDOT is low, and his 22.4-point performance last week is inflated by a 45-yard touchdown on a coverage bust. He’s touchdown-dependent, as he’s unlikely to rack up enough yards with his low aDOT.
AJ Dillon did not make the most of his opportunities with Aaron Jones sidelined. He turned 26 carries into 88 yards and caught one ball for eight yards in Jones’ absence. He’s likely too expensive for his role tonight. It was reported that Jones will be limited, which could boost Dillon’s outlook. However, his lack of efficiency in a tough matchup makes him a tough click.
Luke Musgrave is one of my top priorities on the slate tonight, as his on-field usage hasn’t been reflected in his box scores. He had 8.0, 4.5, and 10.9 DraftKings points across the first three contests, including eight targets last week. Love has missed him multiple times for big gains down the field.
His usage is married with a great matchup, as Detroit has allowed a league-high 25 catches for 263 yards to tight ends through three games. I think he’s a strong option, and I’m personally considering him in my captain spot.
Josh Reynolds‘ Week 3 airball likely has more to do with variance as opposed to any systemic change. He still ran a route on 74% of team dropbacks. They just deployed a more run-heavy approach. He’s a solid click who might go overlooked.
Kalif Raymond has solid control on the team’s WR 3 role, outpacing Marvin Jones Jr. in routes, target share, and air yards share, while Jones Jr. hasn’t seen a target in back-to-back games. He saw six targets last week, catching four balls for 55 yards. He’s not as strong of a play as Reynolds, but will be far lower owned.
Jayden Reed‘s role shouldn’t be too impacted by the return of Watson, as he’s had a solid role as the team’s slot receiver. He’s seen 15 targets over the past two weeks, catching seven balls for 100 yards and two touchdowns. He looks like a solid option on Thursday night. He’ll likely be higher owned than Raymond but lower than Reynolds, as he’s sandwiched between the two,
Dontayvion Wicks looks to be affected the most by Watson’s return, as he’ll likely slide to the bench in 3WR sets. His price tag makes him too expensive for Thursday night, especially as he’s priced around three receivers who will see the field far more.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate the rest of your lineup around them. Given the expected low-scoring nature, these options may appear to be less optimal, but this will likely lead to them being overlooked.
- Marvin Jones Jr. ($2,000 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): He’s too expensive on FanDuel, and I likely won’t get to him on DraftKings, but Marvin Jones Jr. is a viable cheap option on this slate. He’s been edged out by Kalif Raymond in terms of playing time, but he’ll run some routes and could potentially catch a touchdown to pay off his tag.
- Samori Toure ($600 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): Samori Toure’s outlook is far diminished with Watson back. However, he’ll still see the field on 5 WR sets, and Watson is reportedly limited. He looks like the most viable punt option below Marvin Jones Jr. on this slate.
