Week 5 opens with an underwhelming Thursday night football matchup between the Commanders and Bears at 8:15 p.m. ET. The Commanders are listed as 6-point home favorites, while the total sits at 44.5 points.
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Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
Justin Fields comes in as the highest-priced player on this showdown slate after lighting up the Denver Broncos defense. Fields’ had a lackluster first three games, not topping 17 DraftKings points once. However, Denver’s defense was the perfect elixir, allowing him to throw for 335 yards and four touchdowns.
Washington has allowed some high-end performances to Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, and Russell Wilson. They rank in the bottom half of the league in yards per pass attempt and yards per completion.
Fields makes a lot of sense in optimal builds. but in tournaments, I’m considering having some lineups without him. He’s underperformed in three of four games so far this year, and he’s going to be the highest-owned player on the slate. Fields makes a lot of sense in optimal builds, but he likely will be owned more than he’ll be optimal in my opinion.
Next is Terry McLaurin, who seems to be rounding into form following last week’s contest. He saw 16 total targets over the first three games, before seeing 10 last week. He caught eight balls for 86 yards while falling on a fumble en route on 22.6 DraftKings points.
Chicago is allowing the sixth-most yards per target to boundary receivers, where McLaurin plays 84% of his snaps. He looks like a strong play tonight.
DJ Moore is the clear top option in Chicago’s passing game and has now found the end zone in back-to-back weeks. He’s seen 27.5% of the team targets and 43% of the team air yards over the past three weeks. Washington has been gashed by boundary receivers, allowing the second-highest yards per target and highest touchdown rate. Moore runs 83% of his routes from the perimeter, so he should see success.
Priced right next to each other, I prefer McLaurin to Moore, despite McLaurin likely seeing more ownership.
Sam Howell seems fairly underpriced. He’s averaged 15.7 DraftKings points per game, which is highly downweighed by a 4.6-point performance against Buffalo. He’s been between 17-21.5 DraftKings points in the other three contests and now gets to face the putrid Chicago Bears defense.
Howell’s biggest kryptonite is his own desire to take sacks, but that may not be an issue tonight. Chicago’s pass rush is one of the more comical things about the NFL season, sporting just one sack through four games.
Chicago has allowed the second-most yards per attempt, seventh-highest completion percentage, and second-highest touchdown rate. Howell is a strong play in all formats.
Next is a duo of running backs to round out the stud section in Brian Robinson Jr. and Khalil Herbert.
Robinson has quietly had a great start to the season and now is a home favorite on a short week against the Bears. Chicago hasn’t been terrible against opposing backs, allowing just 3.8 yards per carry. However, they’ve allowed eight touchdowns, with four through the air and four on the ground. Robinson has only run a route on 31% of the team dropbacks, which is a little discouraging.
Herbert had a strong role last week, handling 22 touches for Chicago in a close contest. He had 122 total yards and finally found the end zone. The matchup is promising, with Washington allowing a middling 4.1 yards per carry and boasting a middle-of-the-pack success rate.
If Chicago can keep this game close, Herbert will likely see a lot of volume.
Both of these backs profile as strong plays on Thursday night.
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NFL DFS Midrange Picks
Jahan Dotson was a little banged up last week with an ankle injury but doesn’t carry an injury designation for this matchup. He hasn’t cleared 40 yards yet on the season, but finally found the end zone last week. He caught four of nine targets for 27 yards and a touchdown.
He profiles as a very strong play in my opinion, and is one of my top targets on the slate.
Cole Kmet exploded last week against Denver, catching seven of nine targets for 85 yards and two touchdowns. His Week 4 performance outscored his first three weeks combined. Chicago has been solid against tight ends on the year, allowing the third-lowest catch rate and third-fewest yards per target. He’s a solid play, but I do prefer finding the money for Dotson.
Like Dotson, Curtis Samuel also battled an injury last week but doesn’t carry an injury designation. He was a non-participant in Monday’s walk-through while being limited in Tuesday and Wednesday’s practices. I’m not too worried, but his injury worries me more than Dotson’s.
He saw eight targets last week, catching seven balls for 51 yards. He also had a rushing touchdown and has consistently seen schemed usage. He’s a solid play on Thursday Night.
Logan Thomas missed Week 3 with a concussion but returned for last week’s contest with Philadelphia. He saw three targets, catching three balls for 41 yards. Chicago has allowed the third-highest catch rate to tight ends, which keeps him appealing. However, I’d prefer to find the money for Curtis Samuel.
Darnell Mooney is somewhat of a forgotten man in this Chicago offense. He has 12 total targets on the year and is coming off four catches for 51 yards against Denver. He air-balled in both Weeks 2 and 3 after a strong Week 1. He was dealing with an injury in those weeks, so he does get a pass.
Washington has allowed a league-high five touchdowns on throws 20+ yards downfield, so maybe Mooney can break free behind the secondary. I’d be a little cautious of this stat, as they’ve played Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, and Russell Wilson who has always been able to throw the deep ball.
If you expect the Bears to fall behind, Roschon Johnson may make some sense. He was drastically out-touched by Herbert last week in a close game, so I wouldn’t recommend him in contests when building for a close game.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate the rest of your lineup around them. Given the expected low-scoring nature, these options may appear to be more optimal. I have some interest in the Commanders’ defense tonight, especially in builds when fading Fields.
- Antonio Gibson ($3,200 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel): Gibson has just a 14% team rushing share on the year. However, Gibson will handle most of the long-down-and-distance work and can rack up the catches.
- Dyami Brown ($2,800 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): With Dotson and Samuel suiting up, it makes Brown less palatable. He may be worth a flier in large field tournaments but is a little too expensive for his role.
- Equanimeous St. Brown ($1,800 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel): St. Brown should likely be priced cheaper, but his elevated tag should keep his ownership fairly low. He’s not the most talented, but he runs a route on a little over 50% of the dropbacks at such a cheap price.
- Robert Tonyan ($600 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel): What a fall from grace it’s been for Robert Tonyan. It felt so recently that he was catching oodles of touchdowns from Aaron Rodgers. Now he’s been relegated to Cole Kmet’s backup, seeing just four targets through two games. He could certainly catch a touchdown, but he’s more than likely to give you a zero.
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