Week 8 opens with a matchup between two teams trying to rebound off of divisional losses. Tampa Bay travels to Buffalo for Thursday night football at 8:15 p.m. ET. The Bills are listed as 8.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at 43 points.
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Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
Josh Allen overcame a double-digit fourth-quarter deficit to give the Bills the lead last week, but the Patriots responded to score the game-winning touchdown and drop Buffalo to 4-3.
Allen had another solid fantasy performance despite the loss, scoring three total touchdowns en route to 26.3 DraftKings points. He’s topped 20 DraftKings points in five of seven games this year, including two games of 31.76 and 39.5.
New England deployed a very blitz-heavy approach, sending extra rushers on 43.5% of Allen’s dropbacks. He completed just 52.6% of his passes for 5.4 yards per attempt. He’ll likely see a lot of blitzes this week as well, as Tampa Bay sends extra rushers at the fourth-highest rate in the league.
It’s hard to expect Allen to fail, and he’s clearly the top option on this slate. He and teammate Stefon Diggs are in a price range of their own, and rightfully so. Allen holds almost a two-point higher median projection than Diggs, with Diggs over five points higher than the next closest player.
Diggs was able to find the end zone on Sunday, which salvaged his fantasy day. He caught six of 12 targets for 58 yards and a touchdown en route to 17.8 DraftKings points.
This matchup isn’t a cakewalk, with Tampa Bay boasting physical press-man corners in Jamel Dean and Carlton Davis. However, Tampa Bay’s blitz-heavy approach should play into Diggs’ favor, as he’s seen a 37.5% target share and averaged 3.68 yards per route against the blitz.
Mike Evans leads the way on the Tampa Bay side, and despite a tough matchup against A.J. Terrell, Evans delivered with a 40-yard touchdown and 20.2 DraftKings points.
Evans’ usage has been strong, with a 28.3% target rate per route run on the season. He gets a soft matchup, as Buffalo has been shredded by opposing receivers since the loss of Tre’Davious White.
Baker Mayfield rounds out the stud section and comes in with a pretty cheap price tag for a quarterback on a showdown slate. He was a limited participant in Tuesday’s practice with a knee injury, but he should be good to go for Thursday night.
This Buffalo defense has proven to be leaky after all of the injuries they’ve sustained, ranking in the bottom ten in completion rate, yards per attempt, and passer rating over the last three weeks despite facing Trevor Lawrence, Tyrod Taylor, and Mac Jones.
All four of the studs look very appealing on Thursday night’s slate.
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NFL DFS Midrange Picks
The starting running backs headline the midrange, with James Cook checking in first. Cook saw 13 carries and three targets last week, which is pretty on par with his usage this season. He was able to scamper in for a 28-yard receiving touchdown, which led to 19.2 DraftKings points.
We’ve seen him closer to twenty touches in more positive game scripts, with 21 and 18 opportunities in Weeks 2 and 3 against the Raiders and Commanders. He’ll continue to cede touches to Latavius Murray, but Cook’s workload is still strong. He’s a solid option and is a decent leverage piece, as a lot of people will opt to use Buffalo’s passing game.
Rachaad White checks in next, and he’s been as inefficient as anyone so far this season. However, his workload is solid, as he saw 13 carries and six targets last week, catching six balls for 65 yards.
His usage through the air can salvage his inefficiency on the ground. Despite the injuries to Buffalo’s defense, they’re still a solid run defense.
I prefer teammate Chris Godwin to White, who looks like he’ll suit up despite being questionable with a neck injury. Godwin has averaged 13 DraftKings points per game this season without finding the end zone, which is a very impressive mark. He provides a solid floor, and if he is able to find the end zone, Godwin has a strong ceiling.
After just 5.7 total DraftKings points in the past two weeks, Gabe Davis comes in with his cheapest showdown price tag of the season. He’ll likely go slightly overlooked and is appealing, but it’s hard to get on board at that price. He certainly has a higher ceiling, but I don’t view him too much differently than Dalton Kincaid.
Kincaid caught eight of eight targets for 75 yards against New England last week. With Dawson Knox out, Kincaid should be in line for more work.
Tampa Bay has been solid against tight ends, allowing just 5.6 yards per target and yet to allow a touchdown.
Latavius Murray’s role barely changed with Damien Harris out, and he’ll likely serve as James Cook’s backup again. He’s priced up to where he likely needs an actual role to pay off this tag. He’s a fine salary relief play, but projects far worse than Kincaid, who he is priced right next to.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate the rest of your lineup around them. Given the expected low-scoring nature, these options may appear to be more optimal.
- Trey Palmer ($4,200 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel): Trey Palmer played 47 snaps last week but just saw two targets, catching one ball for five yards. He’d become very interesting if Godwin were somehow ruled out, but with Evans and Godwin in, it’s hard to be interested in Palmer at this price tag.
- Khalil Shakir ($3,200 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): Of the trio of receivers behind Diggs and Davis, Shakir actually ran the most routes last week. He comes in as the most expensive of the three, and rightfully so. I prefer Harty, but Shakir is certainly viable at this cheap price.
- Cade Otton ($3,000 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel): Otton saw six targets last week, catching five balls for 43 yards. With all of Buffalo’s injuries, Otton quickly becomes more interesting, and his price tag is very palatable. He’s a strong salary relief option.
- Deonte Harty ($1,000 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel): Harty caught his lone target last week and has seen just one target in back-to-back games. However, he’s my favorite of the cheap Bills receivers. He’s seen multiple targets in a game before, and the team paid him a decent contract, showing they have plans to use him.
- Trent Sherfield ($400 on DraftKings, $5,500 on FanDuel): Sherfield caught one ball for five yards last week as he rotated in with Shakir and Harty. He’s the cheapest of the bunch, but I prefer finding the couple hundred dollars up to Harty.
