Week 7 kicks off with an intriguing inter-conference matchup between the Jaguars and Saints. Jacksonville travels to New Orleans for Thursday night football at 8:15 p.m. ET. The Saints are listed as 1.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at 40 points.
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You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
The stud section is highlighted by Alvin Kamara, who has quietly taken on one of the most valuable roles in fantasy since returning. He’s seen 25, 25, and 27 opportunities in his three games, seeing usage through the air and on the ground. He’s seen 25 targets through the three contests.
Jamaal Williams is expected to be active and suit up, returning from a hamstring injury for his first game since Week 2. This dings Kamara’s outlook a little bit, as we don’t truly know what this backfield looks like with Kamara and Williams healthy.
Kamara is still one of the top options on the slate and a very strong play.
Travis Etienne Jr. leads the way on the Jacksonville side, and he’s turned 52 touches into 267 yards and four touchdowns over the past two weeks. His role at the goal line was worrisome coming into the year, but he’s played on seven of eight goal-to-go snaps over the past two weeks.
The matchup isn’t ideal, with New Orleans allowing the eighth-fewest yards per carry to opposing backs. However, his workload is solid, and he maintains big play ability.
Trevor Lawrence is currently questionable with a knee injury ahead of Thursday Night. Lawrence is supposedly going to test out his knee in pregame warmups and see if he’s able to go, but after limited practices on Tuesday and Wednesday, I’m expecting him to give it a go.
As a quarterback on a showdown slate, he holds a high floor and is one of the best bets for raw points. His knee injury will certainly limit his mobility.
Chris Olave was battling a toe injury but doesn’t carry an injury designation. He saw ten targets last week, catching seven balls for 96 yards. Jacksonville has allowed a healthy 8.6 yards per target to opposing receivers on the year. Olave is a strong play on Thursday night.
Derek Carr rounds out the stud section and carries a very cheap price tag at just $8,800 on DraftKings. Carr needed 50 pass attempts last week to eclipse 300 yards for the first time all season. He makes a lot of sense in cash or if you’re rostering a Saints’ pass-catcher at captain in tournaments. I’m not too interested in Carr as captain tonight.
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NFL DFS Midrange Picks
The midrange gives us a trio of intriguing wide receivers Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk, and Michael Thomas. Not too much separates these three, with Thomas being $1,000 and $1,400 cheaper than the other two.
Starting with the two Jaguars, I prefer Kirk to Ridley. The Saints have gotten toasted by slot receivers, where Kirk runs over 70% of his routes. With Lawrence being potentially limited, I like the shorter aDOT that Kirk provides.
It’s hard to poke many holes in Ridley’s game. He holds a higher air yards share and red zone target share than Kirk. If ownership heavily goes to one of the two, I’ll gladly take the other.
Thomas has seen a healthy target share and air yards share while consistently getting targets. He’s seen between six and nine targets in every game and has yet to find the end zone. He’s averaged 10.7 DraftKings points per game, which is actually an impressive number considering he hasn’t found the end zone.
I tentatively rank the three Kirk, Thomas, and Ridley without too much conviction. All three make a lot of sense in different builds. I would only play Kirk and Ridley together if you’re playing Lawrence as captain.
Taysom Hill surprisingly saw eight targets last week, catching seven balls for 49 yards. This likely has to do with Juwan Johnson’s injury, who will also miss this contest. It’s hard to expect Hill to see that many targets again, but it can’t be completely ruled out.
Hill has more of a traditional role than usual, and he’s more in play than past showdown slates. However, I’m just going to find the money for one of the three receivers mentioned or drop down to Evan Engram, who I heavily prefer straight up.
Engram saw seven targets last week and eight targets in each of the four games prior. He’s yet to find the end zone on the season. He’s a very strong option tonight and probably underpriced. He’s averaged 11 DraftKings points per game without touchdowns. If you remove touchdown scoring from Ridley, Kirk, and Thomas, they rank Kirk (12.5), Ridley (11.6), Engram (11.0), and MT (10.7).
Engram is right in the fold with those three, for far cheaper.
Rashid Shaheed has been New Orleans’ deep threat, with a massive 18.2-aDOT on the season while seeing 14% of team targets. Jacksonville has done well against the deep ball this year, so I’m not expecting Shaheed to get loose.
As I said earlier, I’m expecting Jamaal Williams to suit up, but am not entirely sure of his role. He’s a decent salary saver, but we don’t know if he’ll take goal-line touches from Kamara, and Taysom Hill is always a threat to mix in near the end zone. I prefer the kickers and defenses to Williams.
Zay Jones has been ruled out, which thrusts Jamal Agnew back into a great role at just $400 on DraftKings. He ran a route on 43% of dropbacks last week but didn’t earn a target. We did see Agnew earn five targets in Week 3 when Jones was sidelined, so he certainly could see a little bit of work. He’s a very strong salary saver.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate the rest of your lineup around them. Given the expected low-scoring nature, these options may appear to be more optimal.
- Foster Moreau ($3,200 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): Moreau is more appealing with Johnson sidelined, but he’s seen just an 8% target share and sub-6-yard aDOT on the year. He’s viable for salary relief, but he’ll likely need to fall into the end zone.
- Tank Bigsby ($2,200 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): We could see Bigsby in line for more work if Jacksonville decides to take it easy on Etienne on a short week.
- Jimmy Graham ($600 on DraftKings, $5,500 on FanDuel): He’s seen 62% and 37% of the snaps over the past two weeks and is unlikely to see too much usage. However, they could scheme him a red zone look, and he is very cheap.
