Week 6 gives us yet another Chiefs showdown slate, as they host the Broncos on Thursday night football at 8:15 p.m. ET. The Chiefs are listed as 10.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at 47.5 points.
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You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
We have another Chiefs showdown slate that is headlined by the availability of Taylor Swift’s boyfriend. Sorry. I had to take the low-hanging fruit. Personally, I’m tired of the Taylor Swift coverage. It’s gotten out of control. Did you see FanDuel pricing him at $8,789 last week? What is that?
Anyways, Travis Kelce is priced behind his signal-caller Patrick Mahomes on this showdown slate, and Kelce is currently listed as questionable. He practiced in a limited fashion, and supposedly his ankle has responded well. He’s expected to suit up.
He may be limited in snaps, but regardless he’ll earn targets. He has at least eight targets in every game this year despite being limited when returning from his knee injury. The matchup sets up very nicely, with Denver allowing the second most yards per target and sixth-highest touchdown rate to opposing tight ends.
Mahomes has a daunting price tag, but it’s warranted on this slate. We haven’t really seen the ceiling from Mahomes so far, not topping 25.7 DraftKings points in any game. He’s also posted less than 20 in back-to-back contests.
However, you know the drill. He currently clears the next closest projected player by 8.4 DraftKings points. They have over a four-touchdown team total against the Broncos, who are allowing the sixth-most DraftKings points to opposing quarterbacks.
Mr. Unlimited comes in next, as Russell Wilson has quietly put together a formidable fantasy season. He’s actually averaged more points than Mahomes, at 21.3 DraftKings points per game.
The matchup is somewhat worrisome, with the Chiefs ranking in the top 10 in completion rate and yards per pass attempt to opposing quarterbacks. However, he’s a quarterback on a showdown slate, putting him squarely on my radar.
Isiah Pacheco has put together a strong run as of late, with 15.8, 27.8, and 13.4 DraftKings points in his last three games. His role has been valuable, seeing 18. 23. and 17 opportunities. We knew they’d ease him into things, and now it seems he’s fully up to speed.
Pacheco now gets a dream matchup, as Denver has allowed the highest explosive rush rate and most DraftKings points to opposing RBs. He’ll likely be heavily owned, but it’s warranted.
Jerry Jeudy rounds out the stud section and will almost certainly be the forgotten man amongst these studs. He gets the best matchup of the Denver receivers, as he runs 71% of his routes from the slot. He’ll get to avoid stellar outside corner L’Jarius Sneed, who will likely spend his time following around Courtland Sutton.
Jeudy leads the duo in air yards share and first-read target rate, while Sutton has a higher target share and red zone target share. Where salary isn’t an issue, I prefer to get up to Jeudy as I prefer his matchup, and he’ll likely be lower-owned. Sutton is certainly a strong play as well.
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NFL DFS Midrange Picks
Next comes Denver’s backfield, with Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin priced right next to each other. In his three full games this year, Williams has handled 59% of the team rush attempts while running a route on 30% of the dropbacks and seeing an 11% target share.
McLaughlin has looked good when out there, so he’ll certainly see a few touches. I heavily prefer Williams, as he’ll see the bulk of the early down work, with Samaje Perine likely taking the passing down work. He’s seen 18 targets in five games and will likely see a couple of carries here and there.
His pass game role is where he’ll make value, and he could see an extended role with Denver sitting as double-digit underdogs. I prefer Perine over McLaughlin, but Williams is still my preferred back.
Please get Kansas City off of primetime so I don’t have to talk about their receivers.
Rashee Rice has been a darling of mine, and I truly believe that Kansas City wants to get him more involved. However, his route participation is trending strongly in the wrong direction despite good production. His last three games have dropped from 51% to 47%, to 23%.
Rice’s price is high enough that it may keep his ownership low, and he does look like a strong tournament option.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling leads the team in routes run and will certainly be out there, but he just doesn’t get the ball. He has the lowest target rate per route run among all receivers with at least 100 routes. However, he’s cheap, and I think his ownership will stay low. To show some transparency, I currently have three builds, and he’s on one of them.
Skyy Moore and Justin Watson both ran 23 routes last week, with Moore seeing two targets and three Watson. Moore is simply too priced, as I’d rather play MVS for cheaper if I’m playing a Chief’s receiver who doesn’t earn targets.
Watson has a team-high air yards share despite just an 8.3% target share. His cheap price makes him an appealing tournament option.
Kadarius Toney profiles similarly to Rice in the fact that he has limited routes but gets peppered with targets. He has a 33% target rate per route run on the year but has just run a route on 27% of the dropbacks.
He’s priced at just $600, but I have to talk about Justyn Ross. He ran a route on six dropbacks last week and saw four targets. Kansas City is constantly shuffling around their receivers, and it’s hard to ignore that usage. I think he profiles as a strong salary relief play.
When including price, I would tier the Chiefs’ receivers as Ross (gulp), Toney, Rice, Valdes-Scantling, Watson, and Moore. To be honest, I’m fully prepared to take a 0 on Ross. His usage was promising, and with how cheap he is, I honestly think he can give you a 0, and you’re still fine. With how fragile this WR room is, pretty much everyone is capable of airballing.
Jerick McKinnon is still doing his usual stuff, getting his 1-3 carries and 2-4 targets. He found the end zone twice in both matchups with Denver last year, and we’ve seen them be vulnerable to opposing backs through the air. McKinnon is actually an intriguing option tonight, as we consistently see schemed usage for him in the red zone.
Noah Gray‘s viability on this slate is almost entirely tied to Kelce’s health. With Kelce likely to play, he’s off my radar. However, Kelce will likely be limited, so I wouldn’t blame you for going there.
Marvin Mims Jr. is stuck in purgatory. He leads Denver in receiving yards somehow but barely sees the field. He ran just 12 routes last week, catching his lone target for four yards. He has an elite 24% target rate per route run, and they’re consistently scheming the ball into his hands. He’s an intriguing large GPP option.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate the rest of your lineup around them. Given the expected high-scoring nature, these options may appear to be more optimal. Kansas City’s defense is appealing against Russell Wilson, but ownership will likely follow.
- Adam Trautman ($2,800 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): Trautman is a decent salary punt with Greg Dulcich still on injured reserve. However, he barely gets targeted and has no run-after-catch ability. He needs to find the end zone to pay off his tag.
- Brandon Johnson ($2,800 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): Brandon Johnson is far cheaper than Mims and has been playing ahead of him. However, he profiles similarly to the slew of Kansas City receivers who are simply out there doing cardio. Johnson has run a route on 55% of the dropbacks but has just a 7.4% target share. He’s a decent tournament flier.
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