Week 11 opens with a banger in the AFC North between the Bengals and Ravens. The Ravens are listed as 3.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at 46 points.
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Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
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NFL DFS Stud Picks
Ja’Marr Chase leads the way on this slate, coming off of a low-volume but high-production game against Houston. Chase caught five of six targets for 124 yards and a touchdown. He came into the game with a sore back but still ran a route on over 90% of the dropbacks.
This Ravens defense is daunting, and we now have a four-game sample size of Chase against this Mike Macdonald-led unit. He caught five balls for 31 yards on eight targets, but Joe Burrow was dealing with a calf injury. In his three games last year against Baltimore, Chase totaled 7/50/0, 8/86/1, and 9/84/1 on 12, 13, and 12 targets respectively.
Marlon Humphrey is listed as doubtful, which boosts Chase’s outlook. Humphrey also missed the Week 2 matchup where Chase busted, but as I said, Burrow was limited in that contest. Chase is a great option tonight.
The quarterbacks come next, with Lamar Jackson being slightly more expensive than Burrow on both sites.
This Bengals defense is overrated, as they’ve benefitted from turnover luck. Removing turnovers, they rank in the bottom five in EPA allowed. They’ve also struggled against mobile quarterbacks, allowing the fourth-most yards per game to signal-callers on the ground. That’s not a great spot for them to be with Jackson on the horizon.
We saw CJ Stroud light up this unit last week, and Cincinnati has allowed the third-highest yards per attempt to quarterbacks. I’m expecting Jackson to do whatever he wants tonight, as this Ravens’ offense should be able to move the ball at will. He’s my first click tonight and my favorite captain option.
Joe Burrow was highly successful in the past when Wink Martindale coordinated the Ravens but has been less successful against Macdonald. Burrow has played four games against Macdonald, averaging 215.75 yards (a high of 222 and a low of 209) with five passing touchdowns, two interceptions, and two rushing touchdowns.
Burrow is a necessity in cash games but isn’t a must in tournaments.
Joe Mixon has found the end zone in three straight games, making his game logs look far better. Mixon had a solid performance against Baltimore back in Week 2, totaling 95 yards on 17 touches, including four catches.
He’s far and away my least favorite option of the four studs. His high tag will likely prohibit me from getting to him tonight despite Baltimore allowing the 10th-most yards per carry to opposing backs.
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NFL DFS Midrange Picks
Mark Andrews headlines the midrange against a Cincinnati defense that has allowed the second-most DraftKings points to opposing tight ends. I’ve targeted tight ends against Cincinnati all year long, as they’ve allowed the third-most yards per target and third-highest catch rate to the position.
Andrews has also had success against Cincinnati in his career, with seven touchdowns in 11 career matchups. They’ve also been gashed by tight ends as of late. George Kittle (9/149), Dalton Kincaid (10/81), and Dalton Schultz (4/71) have all had solid stat lines against the Bengals. Andrews looks like a great option.
Andrews’ teammate Zay Flowers comes next, who leads the team in target share, air yards share, and first-read target share. He’s consistently schemed the ball while maintaining big play upside, seeing many targets behind the line of scrimmage and 20+ yards downfield.
He has seen a slight usage blip as of late, averaging eight targets in the first five games but only 5.6 per game in the last five games. He’s still a solid option tonight. I prefer Andrews straight up, but Flowers provides a little bit of savings.
Gus Edwards has a nose for the end zone, with seven touchdowns over the last four games. His production without touchdowns isn’t too appealing. He’s averaged 19.45 DraftKings points per game over his past four, but that number drops to 8.95 per game when you remove touchdowns. Obviously, he has a solid role around the end zone and boasts high touchdown equity.
However, touchdown production is flukey, and his recent totals are heavily boosted by touchdowns (and an 80-yard reception). John Harbaugh also stated that he wants to get Keaton Mitchell more involved, who totaled 66 yards on four touches last week and has found the end zone in back-to-back weeks.
Mitchell will likely see more work, and with Lamar Jackson always there to potentially take away touchdowns, it makes me cautious to get too excited about either Baltimore back. Cincinnati has allowed the highest explosive rush rate to opposing backs, which bodes especially well for Mitchell. If forced to pick one, I definitely prefer Mitchell. However, both are likely on the outside looking in for my small player pool.
Tyler Boyd comes in right below Edwards, with Boyd, Flowers, and Andrews all projecting within 0.77 points of each other. With Boyd coming in $2,000 cheaper than Andrews and $800 cheaper than Flowers, he’s my favorite of the trio. He saw nice usage last week, catching eight of 12 targets for 117 yards.
Rashod Bateman has routinely led the way as the wide receiver two in terms of snaps but has been very unproductive. He saw just three targets in each of the first seven games this year, with two, five, and four over the past three weeks.
With Bateman seeing far more playing time, I prefer him to Odell Beckham Jr., who has found the end zone in back-to-back games. Beckham also sat out Tuesday’s practice with a sore knee, which doesn’t seem to be serious. Nelson Agholor is very cheap, but he’s worth noting, along with the rest of the Baltimore receivers. He mans the slot in three-receiver sets and has run a route on 53% of the dropbacks this year.
Cincinnati has allowed a lot of targets to slot receivers, making Agholor one of the best value options on the slate.
Trenton Irwin has now run a route on over 80% of the dropbacks in both games that Tee Higgins has missed. He saw just four targets last week, catching two balls for 54 yards and a touchdown. He’s a solid value option tonight.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate the rest of your lineup around them. Given the expected low-scoring nature, these options may appear to be more optimal.
- Tanner Hudson ($2,600 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): Hudson, Sample, and Irv Smith Jr. had a three-way rotation at tight end last week, with Hudson seeing seven targets, and now 12 total over the last two weeks. He’s a solid value option.
- Drew Sample ($400 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): Sample saw three targets and caught two balls last week. I prefer Hudson, but Sample is close to the minimum price and makes a lot of lineups work.
