Last Thursday was a tough sell, and this game is trying its best to show that one up. The Raiders and Chargers are set to do battle on Thursday Night football. The Raiders are listed as 3-point home favorites, while the total sits at a lowly 34.5 points.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your DFS lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
This showdown slate is jam-packed with injuries, specifically to the studs. Let’s start with the injury situations we know for sure. Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen are out for this contest, with Herbert now done for the season. Easton Stick will start in his place.
The rest of the Los Angeles receivers will receive a bump with Allen sidelined, and we’ll get to them later.
Davante Adams is currently questionable with an illness, and Josh Jacobs is questionable with a knee injury. Adams is supposedly good to go, but Jacobs’ status is more up in the air.
I’m currently expecting Jacobs to miss, which will thrust Zamir White into an amazing role at a cheap price tag, making him a lock in my opinion. The value on this slate is going to be tough to sort through, but I’ll get to that in the next section.
For Adams, he’s seen 32% of the targets with 51% of the air yards with Aidan O’Connell under center, who, despite rumors of a potential change, will be the starter on Thursday.
The Chargers have allowed a bottom-six rate in fantasy points per target, yards per target, and touchdown rate to opposing receivers. Adams caught eight balls for 75 yards on 13 targets when these teams last played. With Vegas’ season essentially over, it’d make sense for them to keep Adams happy and feed him.
We now have a fairly large sample size with O’Connell, and he’s failed to top 14 DraftKings points in a game. However, I’m looking to buy in tonight. He’s a below-average quarterback, but he’s played some pretty solid defensive units as of late.
His last six games have come against the Bears, Giants, Jets, Dolphins, Chiefs, and Vikings. The Giants and Bears have completely turned their defenses around as of late, and we know the Jets, Dolphins, and Chiefs boast daunting units. Minnesota was expected to be one of the worst defenses in the league, but under Brian Flores, they rank toward the top of the league in EPA per play allowed.
Six games is a large sample size for a quarterback to be subpar. You’d think he’d luck into a solid performance in one of those games, but he didn’t. However, I’m willing to bite the bullet. I like Aidan O’Connell here against a Chargers defense, allowing the seventh-most DraftKings points to opposing quarterbacks.
Austin Ekeler looks to have one of the strongest roles on the slate tonight. Ekeler saw 10 carries and seven targets last week, totaling 100 scrimmage yards and finding the end zone on the ground. We can usually expect a dozen or so carries, with potential for more.
He’ll likely dominate the short passing game tonight with Keenan Allen sidelined. He had a 21% target share from Easton Stick last week, and I’m expecting more of the same tonight.
Stick was middling in relief of Herbert last week, completing just over 50% of his passes for 179 yards and no scores. Herbert struggled against this defense in Week 4, completing just over 50% of his passes for 167 yards. Stick isn’t on my radar tonight.
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NFL DFS Midrange Picks
We have a lot to digest in the midrange today. Jakobi Meyers leads the way, with just a 16% target share and a 15% target rate per route run with O’Connell under center. He’s appealing as a tournament option, as he’s priced right below the quarterbacks and elite skill position players.
Joshua Kelley took a backseat to Isiah Spiller as the RB2 in Los Angeles and is off my radar for Thursday night. Spiller is interesting in large field tournaments, but he’s priced right above Zamir White, who is an optimal target tonight.
Speaking of White, if Jacobs does indeed miss, he becomes a lock in my opinion, and will likely dominate the early down work. Los Angeles has allowed the ninth-most DraftKings points to opposing RBs, and White is priced like a scrub.
Ameer Abdullah is an interesting pivot, as he’ll likely mix in a little bit on early downs and dominate the long-down-and-distance snaps.
The Chargers’ wide receiver room is another focal point on this slate with Keenan Allen out. Joshua Palmer will potentially be limited in his first game back, but he’s affordable, and I’m willing to play into the uncertainty. With White likely becoming a clear value and some appealing stud options, people will likely land on similar builds. I’m expecting Palmer to be a common click, but I’m still interested.
Quentin Johnston is viable in tournaments as a near-every-down receiver. He caught two balls for 79 yards from Stick last week, with most of the work coming after the catch. He makes sense as a pivot from Palmer, as most people will find the $800 to the more experienced man.
Behind these two will be Jalen Guyton and Alex Erickson. Both have shown an ability to play in the slot and out wide and will both see a solid run tonight. Erickson played on 66% of the snaps compared to 32% for Guyton last week, so my preference is with Erickson.
Gerald Everett and Donald Parham Jr. are both touchdown or bust options that cannibalize each other’s upside. Parham is currently questionable, so if he were to miss, Everett would see a boost. As of now, I don’t have much interest in either, as neither are integral parts of the offense.
Hunter Renfrow has crawled his way back into this offense, running a route on about 50% of the dropback since Josh McDaniels was fired. He runs short routes and doesn’t command a ton of volume, so it’s unlikely he posts a “had to have it” score without finding the end zone. He’s viable but not a priority.
Michael Mayer profiles similarly to Renfrow but is cheaper. He runs a route on about two-thirds of the team dropbacks and is more of a red zone threat. Los Angeles has allowed the eighth-most DraftKings points to opposing tight ends.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineup using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate the rest of your lineup around them. Both defenses have some appeal with two backup quarterbacks playing.
- Derius Davis ($600 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel): Most of the attention will go to Erickson and Guyton, but Davis could see designed touches and is dangerous in the return game. He’s viable in large field tournaments only.
