The “main slate” on DraftKings this weekend consists of all four divisional-round contests. There’s also a two-game Sunday-only offering, and we’ll touch on players who stand out specifically on that slate as well. Saturday contests lock at 4:30 p.m. ET on Saturday afternoon.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Stud
We have some intriguing options at the top of the pay scale this week, with three teams implied for a total of at least 25 points, plus some dual-threat options at quarterback. The latter trait is what separates the top options on the slate, Josh Allen ($8,000) and Lamar Jackson ($7,900) from the rest of the field.
Those two are extremely close in projection, with a solid lead on everyone else. Allen has a rematch of a 2022 playoff classic with the Chiefs, a game that saw him drop 40 points on DraftKings. This is a different Chiefs team, though, with a far stronger passing defense. They held him to 21.52 points earlier in the season — though it wouldn’t be surprising to see Buffalo feed him more carries in a must-win playoff game.
Jackson has an excellent matchup with the Texans, who rank 24th in points allowed to quarterbacks. They’re an ideal combination of a soft passing defense (23rd in DVOA) paired with an explosive offense capable of keeping pace on the scoreboard.
For those reasons, I’m leaning a bit towards Jackson here. Kansas City has limited quarterback points all season, and the Ravens also have a higher implied total.
Value
Every passer on the slate costs at least $6,000 on DraftKings, so there are no true cheap options. There’s some solid value, though, with Brock Purdy ($6,500) leading the way in Pts/Sal.
He has an excellent matchup with the Packers. Like the Texans, Green Bay has played well enough on offense to force their opponents to stay aggressive with a leaky pass defense. The biggest concern with the matchup is the fact that Green Bay is equally bad against the run, which could mean a heavy dose of the 49ers ground game. Still, Purdy was a DFS cheat code at this price range for much of the season, and he’s a great play this week.
The Bucs-Lions game also features two pass funnel defenses, setting up nicely for Jared Goff ($6,300) and Baker Mayfield ($6,000). It’s a great spot for both indoors at Ford Field, where the Lions have consistently found themselves in high-scoring games.
Mayfield is the easier GPP play, with most of his passing concentrated around his top two receivers. On the other hand, you could build around this game by rostering the Bucs pass catchers while bringing it back with Goff. The Lions’ somewhat widely distributed passing attack means Goff can have a big day without always bringing any particular receiver along with him. Plus, he’s been awesome at home the last two seasons, per our Trends Tool:
I like building stacks around the Bucs-Lions games for the Sunday-only slate. The name value of the quarterbacks in the other game (Allen and Patrick Mahomes ($6,800)) should draw much of the ownership, but the NFC matchup sets up just as well or better for both passing offenses.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Stud
Unlike at quarterback, there’s no debate here. Christian McCaffrey ($8,800) has nearly a 10-point lead in median projection over the rest of the field this week and is cheaper than he’s been since mid-October.
His 49ers have the highest implied total while tying for the biggest spread on the slate. He’s a true workhorse back who’s had more than two weeks of rest since his last appearance and should handle an even bigger workload in the playoffs than he did in the regular season. This is saying something for a player who averaged more than 22 opportunities per game.
It’s extremely hard to see McCaffrey failing here, as everything is trending in his direction. Perhaps the only counterpoint is that spending that salary elsewhere could give you a higher ceiling, but that’s a bit of a reach. McCaffrey should see massive ownership, but I wouldn’t fade him in all but the biggest of contests.
Keep in mind his game against the Packers is on Saturday, so things get a bit more interesting on the Sunday-only slate.
Value
It gets interesting behind McCaffrey. There’s a handful of decent plays, but nobody really stands out. However, with no other back within $2,000 of his salary, we can afford to take a stab at a few options.
My favorite is probably James Cook ($6,300). Buffalo is a slight favorite at home against the Chiefs, while Kansas City is a major run funnel on defense. The Chiefs rank fifth in DVOA against the pass but 27th against the run. All of this should lead to strong efficiency for Cook, who scored 25 DraftKings points the last time these teams met. He’s a borderline must-play on the Sunday slate while still worthy of consideration in four-game contests.
Devin Singletary ($5,700) edges out Cook by a nose in Pts/Sal but has a difficult matchup and game script against the Ravens. Baltimore is worse against the run than the pass — but they’re a top-ten defense in both categories. Singeltary has been excellent down the stretch, but I’d keep my exposure to him limited to lineups built around Houston, keeping pace in this one.
The final member of the second tier of running back plays is Isaih Pacheco ($6,400). He has a reasonably winnable matchup with the Bills but is heavily dependent on the game script going his way. Pacheco tends to come out of the game on obvious passing downs, so he’s far less valuable as an underdog:
Isaiah Pacheco Favorite/Underdog Career Splits
In his defense, he’s played in just two games as an underdog in his young career. However, it’s still a concerning sign, especially with Buffalo favored in this matchup. I’ll keep my exposure to Pacheco on the Sunday-only slate and in lineups built around Kansas City controlling the game.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Stud
We have another clear leader at wide receiver, with Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,200) projecting well ahead of the field. The Lions’ top receiver is the only player remaining in the playoffs to average double-digit targets, and the matchup with Tampa tends to tilt opponents to the air.
“Sun God” doesn’t run as many downfield routes as the league’s other top wideouts, which limits his ceiling to a degree. However, he makes up for it on volume at full-PPR DraftKings, and he’s been remarkably consistent. He’s hit a positive Plus/Minus score in his last five contests and is reasonably cheap this weekend.
We also don’t need a massive score on smaller slates like this, particularly on the Sunday two-game affair. ASB is a near-lock for me in Sunday-only contests, but he’s a strong play even on the main slate.
Outside of St. Brown, Nico Collins ($7,200) leads the position in projection. Houston should have a very throw-heavy approach this week as big underdogs, so the volume should be there. However, it’s hard to feel good about his efficiency against the league’s top passing defense, so he’s far from a must-play.
I prefer Mike Evans ($7,200) in a soft matchup against the Lions. Evans has emerged as the top option for the Bucs, with a 40% air yards share. Detroit ranks 30th in points per game allowed to wide receivers, so you couldn’t draw it up much better.
Value
Lions speedster Jameson Williams ($3,600) is the best budget option this weekend. He’s seen an expansion in his role down the stretch, with just under five touches per game over his last four active contests. His deep average depth of target (aDOT) makes him a fairly inconsistent option, but Detroit has emphasized getting him some easier looks recently. You don’t necessarily need to save this much salary at wideout, but he’s the top option for lineups that need the savings.
Rashee Rice ($6,800) has been a solid fantasy asset since taking over as the clear top wideout for Kansas City, averaging 9.7 targets per game since late November. We’re not getting the salary discount on Rice that we are on most players this week, which makes him a slightly tougher click, but given the limited options (especially on Sunday), he’s a solid choice.
If Gabe Davis ($5,000) misses a second straight contest, it would be great news for Khalil Shakir ($3,800). He’s averaged about 15 DraftKings points in the last two weeks with Davis out or missing part of the game. While it’s a tough matchup, he’s too cheap if he ends up being the No. 2 option for Josh Allen. This is the last game of the week, so monitor our news throughout the weekend and be prepared for late swaps. If we get word in time, he could be an excellent leverage opportunity over Williams, assuming you have the salary space needed.
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NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Stud
How much do you trust Travis Kelce ($6,000)? He’s the best play on paper, but a mixture of age, drops, and outside distractions have limited the once-elite fantasy option. His 14.1 DraftKings points in the Wild Card Round were his best score in over a month and his only positive Plus/Minus game since before Halloween.
While I don’t buy the narratives surrounding his personal life, Kelce is a 34-year-old tight end with a ton of mileage on his body. It’s entirely possible his best days are well behind him at this point. He also has a tough matchup with Buffalo, who ranks fourth in fewest points allowed to tight ends.
On the positive side, his 20.13% target share ranked sixth at the position this season, and Kansas City will need to throw as slight underdogs. I wouldn’t be shocked at a vintage Kelce performance here, but we’re paying for the name, not the production.
On the other hand, rookie Sam LaPorta ($5,900) has been outstanding all season. His 10 touchdowns were the best in the league (nobody else had more than six), and he was top five in targets. Now he draws a Bucs team that ranks 30th in points allowed to the position and seems mostly recovered from a Week 18 knee injury. He’s my first look if paying up at the position, especially at very limited projected ownership.
Value
There’s a dearth of punt tight end options this week, but we still have the Wild Card Round hero, Cade Otton ($3,500). The Bucs tight end went 8/89/0 on 11 targets last week against the Eagles, with an even better matchup this time around.
I’m bullish on the Bucs passing game in general, which certainly includes Otton. While Detroit has been more “average” than “bad” against the position — they’re more talented at safety and linebacker than cornerback — it’s still a winnable matchup. Plus, it’s hard to argue with his volume relative to his price tag.
Otton is my preferred choice if saving salary at tight end, particularly on the Sunday-only slate.
GPP Roster Construction
A four-game slate is a weird spot. On the one hand, there’s less risk of duplicate lineups than the two and three-game contests we’ve had recently. Particularly this week, when there’s a solid case for all eight quarterbacks and, thus, a variety of stacking options.
Still, with a couple of clearly excellent plays, it’s important to keep an eye on ownership and stay unique. Lineups that fade one of McCaffrey or St. Brown accomplish that in and of themselves. If betting against either of those players, you’re likely to end up on a unique lineup no matter who else you roster.
That’s my favorite way to build, as it’s not hard to see scenarios where either player has “good-not-great” production. If the 49ers score early through the air, they could look to limit McCaffrey’s workload in an expected blowout. Detroit wants to play run-heavy, so the game script could also work against St. Brown.
I’d also look to leverage against whichever player you fade — so 49ers wideouts or Lions running backs. If either of the top options fails, it’s more likely that other players on their team had big days than the team failed to produce entirely.
For the two-game slate, fading St. Brown is a tougher ask. One way to get leverage there would be to play him with Bucs running back Rachaad White ($6,500), effectively betting on the inverse game script than the spread would imply.
Either way, be sure to keep late swap options in mind, especially overnight. There’s still a bit of news in the Sunday night game that could provide opportunities for sharp players to get an edge.
Cash Games
As always on smaller slates, late swap will be the key to cash game success. That’s amplified this week, as outside of a few exceptions (CMC, St. Brown), there are not many obvious plays at any position.
I’m leaning toward builds with cheaper quarterbacks (Mayfield or Goff) who are also playing later on the slate. That gives a bit more maneuverability with lineups and allows you to pivot to heavily correlated lineups if you miss out on big Saturday scores or opt for safety if protecting a lead.
The aforementioned star players are musts, but it’s wide open after that. I’m leaning slightly toward Cook as my RB2 option, but I have no problem with Singletary if the extra salary meaningfully improves lineups elsewhere.
At wide receiver, I want one of the top players behind St. Brown, likely Collins or Rice. After that, I’ll have a spot that starts with Jameson Williams but could pivot to Josh Reynolds ($3,700) for safety or Khalil Shakir if needing to chase points.
Paying down for Otton at tight end seems like the obvious choice there, as Kelce hasn’t paid off his salary in a long time, and LaPorta could be less than 100%. At defense, I’d love to get up to Baltimore ($3,500), but I will probably end up settling for Kansas City ($2,700) or Buffalo ($2,800). Weather conditions are tough enough there that a shootout is unlikely, so they’re reasonably safe (if unexciting) options.
Good luck!
