The final multi-game slate of the NFL season is upon us, with the conference championship matchups this weekend. The final four NFL teams face off with the winners advancing to the Super Bowl, starting with the AFC chanmpionship game at 3:00 Eastern Time on Sunday.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Stud
The AFC championship game features two elite quarterbacks in Lamar Jackson ($7,700) and Patrick Mahomes ($6,900). Jackson has been the better fantasy asset by a long shot this year, averaging about four more DraftKings points per game thanks to the additional points racked up with his rushing ability.
His dual-threat status is important here, with both teams featuring elite pass defenses. The Ravens and Chiefs rank first and second in yards allowed per pass attempt and top 10 in fewest fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. They’ve each allowed just two 20-point quarterback scores all season.
One of those scores was last week, when Josh Allen dropped 30, largely thanks to a 12/72/2 rushing line that accounted for most of those points. Jackson has a clear path to replicating that success this week, giving him the highest ceiling projection on the slate.
The case for Mahomes is more about ownership — he’s going to be considerably less popular than Jackson. His limited weaponry makes it relatively unlikely he has a massive game, but it’s hard to go wrong betting on his talent. We could also have a slate without any standout quarterback scores, in which case a low-20s from Mahomes at $800 cheaper than Jackson might be enough.
Value
Pass defense might be the best predictor of success in the NFL in 2023. As evidence: three of the final four teams in the playoffs rank top five in DVOA through the air. The lone exception is the Detroit Lions, who rank a respectable but mediocre 16th.
That makes Brock Purdy ($6,400) the standout play on the slate. Detroit is built to stop the run, Purdy has elite weaponry to throw to, and the 49ers have the highest implied total on the slate by 5.5 points. Remember how we said both AFC teams have only allowed two 20-point quarterback scores this season? Detroit has given up 14 such games, including their last five.
Crucially, the Lions offense should be able to do enough to keep the 49ers aggressive, making this a perfect storm of quarterback production. While Purdy will be popular, he’s a very tough fade this week.
The one quarterback I have the least interest in is Detroit’s Jared Goff ($6,300). The Lions’ best chance this week is on the ground, and Goff has rarely been a week-winner even in more favorable matchups.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Stud
This one’s easy because Christian McCaffrey ($9,000) leads all players on the slate in median and ceiling projections by a wide margin. The 49ers MVP-finalist is averaging more than 26 DraftKings points per game, including 31.8 points last week against the Packers on the strength of 29 total opportunities.
While Detroit loads up to stop the run, McCaffrey is by far the best pass-catching back in the league, and San Francisco is more than willing to get him touched through the air. Twelve of his 29 opportunities last week were targets, and he ended with a 7/30/0 receiving line against the Packers.
With all of that said, he’ll be massively chalky, and I can see a path to a fade in larger tournaments. Detroit has been strong against running backs in the passing game as well and has allowed the fewest points to the position in the NFL. If going that route, it’s important to build around scenarios where Detroit controls the game — which probably means Lions backs instead of CMC.
The explosive rookie Jahmyr Gibbs ($6,400) would make sense as a pivot. San Francisco is just mediocre against the run by DVOA, and Gibbs ranks third among running backs in yards per carry on the season. He’s also involved enough in the passing game to be somewhat game script-independent and thus could even be played alongside McCaffrey.
Value
Outside of McCaffrey — who also leads all non-quarterbacks in Pts/Sal — the best option is the Chiefs’ Isaiah Pacheco ($6,500). Pacheco has been the engine of the Chiefs offense down the stretch, with at least 15 opportunities in every game since Halloween.
While Pacheco will pop up with some passing-game usage on occasion, he’s primarily a straightforward ball carrier. With Baltimore coming in ranked 27th in yards allowed per rush, that might not be a bad thing this week. However, the Chiefs are slight underdogs and he does better in positive game scripts, so be sure to factor that scenario in if including Pacheco in your lineups.
Outside of the three players mentioned, it’s fairly thin. Baltimore rotates between Gus Edwards ($5,500) and Justice Hill ($4,800), with Jackson seeing plenty of designed runs as well. The Lions tend to use David Montgomery ($5,600) more when playing from in front, and they’re seven-point underdogs this week. Rostering any of those players would certainly be a way to get contrarian, but outside of Montgomery in a Lions upset, it’s hard to see any of them paying off.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Stud
Given that expected game script in the evening game, Lions star wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,900) should have another productive game this week. He’s had at least 100 yards receiving or a touchdown in six straight, topping 20 DraftKings points in each of them.
His high-volume role actually sets up nicely against the 49ers despite their elite pass defense. San Francisco wins in the passing game by keeping the ball in front of them and limiting deep throws. However, they’ve allowed a higher-than-average catch rate on the season.
Since St. Brown does his best work by racking up tons of looks, he’s a very strong play on full-PPR DraftKings. Detroit should be throwing early and often this week, with most of that going to the Sun God.
With Detroit ranking 30th in points allowed to receivers, Brandon Aiyuk ($6,900) is the other high-end player worth watching. It looks like Deebo Samuel ($7,300) will be back from the injury he suffered last week but he could be limited by the shoulder injury that’s bothered him all year.
Samuel’s hybrid role doesn’t project as well against the Lions anyway, which should shift more opportunities to Aiyuk. Detroit has been solid over the middle of the field but consistently gets beat on the outside — where Aiyuk sees most of his looks.
Aiyuk leads the slate in Pts/Sal projection.
Value
Behind Aiyuk and St. Brown, the best Pts/Sal projection goes to Rashee Rice ($6,500). He has a tall task ahead of him against the Ravens secondary, but “top wide receiver for Patrick Mahomes” is always a valuable role. Rice has been fairly inconsistent this season, but he’s the best bet for production from the Chiefs.
On the cheaper end, the Lions Jameson Williams ($3,700) has yet to flash the ceiling his elite speed suggests he’s capable of — but not for lack of trying. His 15.59-yard average depth of target (aDOT) is elite, and Detroit takes a shot or two downfield with Williams almost every game. Downfield bombs might be the hardest way to attack the 49ers passing defense, but we’ll need to save salary somewhere. At least Williams has some theoretical upside.
Zay Flowers ($5,800) is the only real “midrange” option in terms of salary on the slate. He’s the Ravens’ leading receiver, but that’s a role that’s averaging a bit under seven targets per game. The upside here is that the Mahomes-led Chiefs turn this game into a shootout, which would mean extra looks for Flowers and the rest of the Ravens receivers.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for a $500 deposit match.
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Stud
After a disappointing regular season, Travis Kelce ($6,600) turned it on just in time for the playoffs. His unofficial bye week in Week 18 (when Kansas City rested starters) may explain the resurgence for Kelce, who’s dealt with nagging injuries all season.
Either way, he has 12 catches for 146 yards and two touchdowns across the two playoff games and should be called upon for more this week. While Baltimore is tough against tight ends, Kelce can win in any matchup. It’s also likely that Mahomes trusts his longtime top option over younger receivers (like Rice) in critical moments against the AFC’s top seed.
While it could just be variance, I’m mostly back in on Kelce’s newfound production in the postseason. He’ll be a priority in my lineups, regardless of how I’m building.
Less of a priority for me will be George Kittle ($5,300), who trails only Kelce in median and ceiling production. While a missing or limited Deebo Samuel benefits Kittle on paper, there are far easier ways to attack the Detroit defense. I’d play Kittle as part of Purdy stacks — and two tight-end builds are viable this week — but not much by himself.
Value
Outside of the aforementioned players, Sam LaPorta ($5,400) has the best Pts/Sal projection. The Lions rookie has been awesome this year, finishing third in PPR scoring at the position. However, he’s badly banged up after a Week 18 knee injury. It’s also a difficult matchup against the 49ers.
Still, he caught nine of eleven targets last week for 65 yards and is option 1B behind St. Brown for the Lions. Like Kittle, my interest in him is limited to builds where Detroit is chasing points and/or game stacks of the NFC championship.
Finally, this week marks the improbable return of Mark Andrews ($5,000) after what looked like a season-ending injury in mid-November. Andrews is unlikely to be anywhere near full strength this week, but at his best, he is a top fantasy option. The uncertainty around his health will keep ownership extremely low, so I have some fringe interest in him on two tight end builds.
GPP Roster Construction
The big decision point this week surrounds McCaffrey. It’s vitally important to get unique somewhere in your lineups, and fading CMC is the easiest way to do that. On the other hand, he’s been a brutally consistent 20+ point scorer all season, and that’s likely enough to win GPPs on a small slate.
If rostering McCaffrey, it will thus be critical to get unique at other spots. My favorite way to do so is with two tight end rosters. Both running back and wide receiver are fairly weak this slate — or concentrated on one or two standouts. That lowers the opportunity cost of playing a tight end in the flex, and it should be a reasonably unique way to build.
Additionally, there are three (four counting Andrews) reasonably similar options in terms of projection and salary. That means even among the two tight end lineups, there’s going to be some variation in how those are put together.
Outside of that, St. Brown and Aiyuk are near-locks, with a third cheap receiver. San Francisco ($3,300) will be the chalky defense — and they’re also the best play. Still, defense is notoriously unpredictable, so going with any of the other options saves both salary and ownership.
Cash Games
There are no real solid “punt” type plays this week, making cash games difficult. Which high-priced value play you fade is going to determine who wins and loses this week.
Purdy feels like a must-play at quarterback this week, which is fortunate since he’s also on the cheaper end. Ditto for McCaffrey and St. Brown. That leaves us with Pacheco, Kelce, and Aiyuk as potential fade options.
Normally, I’d feel the best about coming off an expensive tight end, but you don’t actually save that much coming down from Kelce to the other options. If we got firm news that Deebo Samuel was limited or out, I’d pivot down to Kittle, but that seems unlikely.
Which leaves one of Pacheco or Aiyuk on the proverbial chopping block. My lean is to omit Aiyuk since San Francisco could go up early and not need him — and there are arguably better alternatives at wide receiver. That’s not an especially confident take, though, and neither option would really be “wrong.”
As always, be prepared to late-swap as needed with whatever choices you make. Big games from Pacheco, Kelce, or Rashee Rice at reasonably high ownership will make a difference on the best strategy for the late game. If you get buried, pivoting from Purdy to Goff of CMC to Gibbs (and using the salary to upgrade elsewhere) gives you a fighting chance to come from behind.
Good luck!
