The NFL has been experimenting with Christmas Day games over the past few years. In 2020, even when it fell on a Friday, they had a primetime game that was especially good for Alvin Kamara and his fantasy owners (six touchdowns later). Last year when Christmas was on Saturday, the NFL had a double-header, and this year we get a Christmas triple-header.
The schedule is set up much like Thanksgiving Day, with three games consecutively spaced throughout the day. Also, a little like Thanksgiving, there are recurring teams that are starting to be Christmas regulars. The Packers and Cardinals are each playing for the second year in a row on Christmas, fitting in nicely with the green and red holiday theme. We’ll see if these trends continue in future years, but I’m all for getting as many fantasy slates and spreading games throughout the weekend, so each gets its own focus.
The first game on this slate is probably the juiciest from a fantasy perspective as the Packers head to Miami and try to keep their playoff hopes alive as they take on the Dolphins. The Rams and Broncos meet in the middle game of the Christmas Day triple-header in a matchup of two of the most underachieving teams in the NFL, and the nightcap also has a pair of disappointments as the Cardinals host the Bucs, who are still alive in the playoff hunt only because they play in the brutal NFC Sourth. Even though the teams have been dissapointing, there are some solid fantasy options to consider as you build your team in a day that should have plenty of fantasy football star power.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the slate.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Stud
Of the six starting QBs on the slate, there really aren’t any of the true “studs” in the entire fantasy landscape of the NFL. There are two options, though, that make sense to consider near the top of the salary structure in Tua Tagovailoa and Tom Brady. Tua is actually more expensive on both FanDuel and DraftKings, even though Brady’s median projection is slightly higher on DraftKings.
Tua’s ceiling projection is a little higher, which makes sense with all his speed at receiver, but it’s actually Brady who I think is the better play since he’s a little cheaper and gets a better matchup. Tua’s Opponents’ Plus/Minus is -7, while Brady’s is the best on the slate at +4. He also has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of any QB on the slate.
Despite four brutal turnovers that cost his team the game in reality, Brady’s fantasy production in last week’s loss to the Bengals actually trended in the right direction. He threw for 312 yards and three touchdowns for 23.58 DraftKings points, his best total since Week 4.
Brady’s matchup against the Cardinals should set him up for success again. Arizona looked lost on offense last week behind Trace McSorley, which should give Brady plenty of chances with the ball. Since the bye week, Brady has at least 43 attempts in four straight games with over 245 passing yards in each contest. With so much volume and some solid playmakers, Brady and the Buccaneers will look to bounce back and stay in first place in the NFC South.
Paying all the way up for Tua will probably be a popular play as well, but getting Brady a little cheaper could end up being the best option if the GOAT goes off on Christmas night.
Value
Once you go below Brady and Tua, things get a little sketchy in a hurry. The best option if you pass on the big duo at the top is probably Aaron Rodgers, whose ceiling projection isn’t far behind Brady’s and Tagovailoa’s despite the fact that he comes cheaper.
In the game with the highest over/under on the slate, Rodgers definitely has the potential to produce if the game gets going back and forth and he turns back the clock. He has been fairly accurate lately, including completing 73.3% of his passes last week against the Rams, but he didn’t get the touchdowns to turn it into a big game. He didn’t have to do too much against the depleted Rams, but he did enough to get the Packers their second straight win and keep their playoff chances alive.
Rodgers isn’t playing up to his own lofty standards but is still averaging 15.2 DKFP on 221 passing yards per game. He’s also in a better matchup than the other value possibilities since the Dolphins gave up four touchdowns and over 300 passing yards to the Bills last week and have averaged over 300 yards passing allowed over the past three weeks.
Quick Hits
Trace McSorley looked really bad last week in relief and has never made an NFL start. He has decent weapons but is in a tough matchup against Tampa Bay’s defense. If you’re just punting the position, you could hope he falls into a couple of scores.
The afternoon matchup between veterans Russell Wilson and Baker Mayfield has the lowest over/under on the day and features two strong defenses and tough QB matchups. On both FanDuel and DraftKings, the two of them have the lowest projected Plus/Minus numbers of all the starting QBs.
Of the two, Wilson is probably a slightly better play since he and the Broncos offense did show some signs of life before he was knocked out and knocked out of the Broncos’ loss to the Chiefs.
Brady and Rodgers are my two favorite plays, with Tua as an option due to his high ceiling. The other three options are really only worth fliers if you think their low ownership could make them valuable for GPP usage.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Stud
Most of the offenses in play on Sunday have some kind of timeshare going on in the backfield, with the one notable exception being James Conner of the Cardinals. He has almost the same projected ceiling as Aaron Jones but is a little bit safer since there isn’t anyone else to readily take his workshare. He actually brings the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the slate on FanDuel, where he’s also tied for the highest Projected points per $1000 of salary.
Conner has at least 14 carries in five straight games, averaging 18.2 carries per game for 75.6 yards per game over that stretch. He has also averaged 4.6 targets per game while finding the end zone six times and going off for over 23 DraftKings points in three of those five games. He has exceeded salary-based expectations on both DraftKings and FanDuel in each of those five games.
The Bucs are a tough matchup for running backs but haven’t been quite as much of a “stay-away” spot the past few weeks. They gave up a two-touchdown game to Christian McCaffrey in Week 14 and a 100-yard game to Nick Chubb in Week 12. It’s still not an ideal matchup, but the situation should set up for a large workload for Conner in the offense led by McSorley.
Value
The second-highest projected Plus/Minus at RB on both DraftKings and FanDuel belongs to Cam Akers, who comes with a nice ceiling since he has taken over as the primary option for the Rams in the backfield. He was away from the team earlier this season but has established himself as the top option over rookie Kyren Williams. Last week, Akers played over 75% of the Rams’ snaps for the second time in three weeks.
While leading the team in both rushing and receiving yards, Akers looked like the most dynamic playmaker remaining in the depleted offense, so look for coach Sean McVay to scheme the ball into his hands against the Broncos.
Running backs haven’t fared well against the Broncos, but Akers should get plenty of chances to churn out yardage and hopefully get a touchdown or two for Los Angeles on Sunday.
Quick Hits
The Packers have the worst rush defense (by DVOA) in the NFL, so Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson both have very high ceilings for the Dolphins. Mostert has the fourth-highest ceiling projection of all RBs on the slate, but that could jump if Wilson is sidelined for a second straight week and Mostert doesn’t have to share the workload. Mostert also has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all RBs on the slate on DraftKings, where he’s a little bit cheaper than he is on FanDuel.
On the other side of the early game, it looks like Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon will both be available after dealing with injuries. The bad news is that the timeshare makes both players higher risk, but it does make the Packers a more potent offense overall. Jones has the highest ceiling projection of the RBs on the slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel, but he has been losing touchdowns lately to Dillon, who has scored four rushing touchdowns in his past three games, allowing him to exceed salary-based expectations in each of those three contests.
Latavius Murray looked good as the feature-back for the Broncos last week, but he may lose some work this week to Chase Edmonds (ankle), who has been designated to return from IR. He’s also questionable himself due to a foot issue. If Edmonds isn’t back and Murray is a full go, the veteran makes sense against a Rams’ defense that won’t have Aaron Donald, but if Edmonds is back in the mix, the situation becomes murky, especially with Marlon Mack in the mix as well.
For the Bucs, Leonard Fournette and Rachaad White have been sharing work as well, making it tricky to predict who gets most of the work in a good matchup against the Cardinals. The median and ceiling projections don’t rank either one in the top four on this slate.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Stud
On this slate with plenty of questionable offenses, there’s one clear top wide receiver option in Tyreek Hill. He’s the most expensive receiver on both DraftKings and FanDuel, but he also has the highest ceiling projection and median projections by wide margins. On DraftKings, no other receiver is within six points of his ceiling projection. On FanDuel, he actually has the highest projected Plus/Minus of all the receivers on the slate, despite his lofty salary.
Hill and Jaylen Waddle have the benefit of working with their regular quarterback, giving them a huge advantage over the Cardinals’ duo of DeAndre Hopkins and Marquise Brown (groin, questionable), who might have been able to challenge them at the top of this slate with a healthy Kyler Murray (knee). Waddle is second in most of the projection categories, but it’s Hill who clearly holds the top spot.
In his first season in Miami, Hill has racked up 1,529 yards and seven touchdowns over his first 14 games and is averaging just under 11 targets per game. He has found the end zone in three straight games with double-digit targets in each of those contests.
Hill has exceeded salary-based expectations in six of his past nine games, and his big-play ability makes him a high-upside play on every slate on which he appears.
Value
There are a few ultra-cheap plays highlighted in the quick hits below if you need to go extremely cheap at this spot, but for my top value play, I’ll highlight Christian Watson, who makes a nice value duo with Rodgers, giving you strong correlation if Green Bay goes off and stuffs your stockings. Watson has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate on DraftKings and the fifth-highest on FanDuel.
Watson had exceeded salary-based expectations for four straight games before being held out of the end zone by the Rams on Monday Night Football. He’s still the team’s top option, though, and they may be forced to air it out to keep up with Tua, giving Watson a high ceiling. In fact, he has the third-highest ceiling projection of any receiver on this slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Quick Hits
The Rams’ receiver depth has been wiped out due to injury, but Tutu Atwell is a big-play threat who showed out in Baker Mayfield’s debut. He played a season-high 84% of offensive snaps for the Rams last week and had more targets than any other WR, even though he only managed one catch for 10 yards. He should be poised for a bounce-back and has the highest projected Plus/Minus of any wide receiver on the slate on DraftKings. He also has the highest yards-per-reception mark of any receiver on this slate.
It’s hard to trust Jaylen Waddle with Hill getting so much attention lately, but Waddle is a solid pivot play that should come with lower ownership.
The Dolphins have not fared well against opposing slot receivers, and Randall Cobb continues to play that role as a safety blanket for Aaron Rodgers. Even with Romeo Doubs back last week from an ankle injury, Cobb maintained the same amount of targets and played almost as many snaps. Cobb should continue to be able to find space out of the slot. He brings the third-highest projected Plus/Minus of all receivers under $6K on FanDuel.
The Cardinals’ passing game is very hard to trust with McSorley at quarterback, but both Hollywood and Hopkins always have the potential to pull off a big play or two to go off. The volume is hard to expect with this offense, though.
On the other side of the late game, Chris Godwin is always worth a look as a high-volume target monster. He has at least eight targets in nine straight contests and has found the end zone to exceed salary-based expectations in three of his past five games. He is a pretty solid safe play due to volume and gets a great matchup as well. The only thing that hurts Godwin is that Brady spreads things around so much, especially in the red zone.
Mike Evans has been quieter since Godwin has re-emerged, and Russell Gage has found the end zone three times in the past two weeks. Gage also had eight catches and 25.9 DraftKings points last week against the Bengals, so he’s a great value play as well, especially on DraftKings, where he’s under $4K. If you’re stacking around Brady, Gage and Godwin can both be nice plays at their price against the Cardinals, who gave up seven receiver touchdowns in a four-week span before facing the Patriots and Broncos, who both don’t score many receiver touchdowns in general.
The Broncos have injury questions with Courtland Sutton (hamstring) and Kendall Hinton (hamstring), leaving Jerry Jeudy set up for heavy volume. The problem is that the Rams have done a good job shutting down top receivers, and it’s very hard to trust Russ to get him the ball.
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Stud
The Broncos’ injury issues at receiver have opened up the opportunity for Greg Dulcich to emerge as the top tight end on this slate. He has the highest ceiling projection at the position on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and he should be all set to bounce back after a quiet week without Wilson last week. In each of the last two games in which Wilson played, Dulcich had eight targets, posting a season-high 14.5 DKFP against the Ravens back in Week 13.
The Rams’ defense ranks in the middle of the pack against tight end on the season, but they did give up three games with at least seven tight end catches and a tight end touchdown in their past five games. They have also surrendered four tight end touchdowns over their past seven games overall.
Value
Especially in their plus matchup with the Cardinals, one of the Bucs’ two tight ends is probably the best value option. Arizona has allowed more DraftKings points to opposing tight ends than any team in the entire NFL this season, including surrendering a total of 10 tight end touchdowns and an average of 71 receiving yards to opposing tight ends per game.
Cameron Brate is cheaper than Cade Otton on both DraftKings and FanDuel and actually has the highest projected Plus/Minus of all tight ends on the slate on FanDuel. On DraftKings, he has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus behind only Dulcich. Brate has been playing slightly fewer snaps than Otton but out-targeted the rookie 4-to-1 last week against the Bengals. He only has two catches in each of the past two weeks, but he’s still a security blanket for Brady and a regular red zone option.
Otton has a higher ceiling if you have the salary to go with the rookie as your value. He did only get that one target last week while being shut out but has exceeded salary-based expectations in five of his past 10 contests, including a 10-target game against the Saints when he also scored a critical touchdown in Tampa’s comeback victory.
Quick Hits
Tyler Higbee remains involved in the Rams’ passing game and led the team last week with five targets. The problem is that the Rams are short on playmakers across the board, leaving him as a checkdown option who might get catches but won’t find much space. He’s also the most expensive tight end on DraftKings, where he seems a little over-priced.
The Packers Robert Tonyan and Dolphins’ Mike Gesicki are good options if they score touchdowns, but they are very touchdown-reliant since they don’t get a lot of volume elsewhere on the field.
One of the only bright spots in last week’s loss for the Cardinals was rookie tight end Trey McBride, who had the best game of his career with four catches for 55 yards. He obviously has a connection with McSorley and can be an interesting punt play at the position since the Bucs struggle to shut down opposing tight ends as well.
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