After months of tolerating our loved ones and getting by in our 9 to 5s, we finally have something to look forward to. Football is back, baby! Granted, it’s just the Hall of Fame Game, but it is a precursor to the most magical time of the year.
Thursday’s contest between the New York Jets and Cleveland Browns signals what’s to come between now and February as NFL teams compete for the ultimate prize.
Prior to last year’s bonanza between the Las Vegas Raiders and Jacksonville Jaguars, scoring has been at a premium in the first game of the season. The Raiders put up 27 points en route to a 16-point victory over the Jags, the most points scored by one team in the Hall of Fame Game since the Washington Redskins tallied 30 in 2008. As implied, offenses aren’t at their best early in the preseason, making Thursday’s showdown a bit of a gamble.
Still, our projections outline some definite advantages that we plan on playing in the first game of the 2023 season.
You can view our NFL preseason projections in our NFL Player Models, which is also where our Lineup Optimizer is found.
Dorian Thompson-Robinson
The Cleveland Browns quarterback position is a known commodity. Last year, the hapless franchise went all-in on Deshaun Watson, mortgaging future assets for a top-tier signal-caller no longer welcome with his former squad. Without question, Watson will lead the Browns onto the field in Week 1, but how passers slot into the depth chart remains to be seen.
The most intriguing arm that needs to be evaluated is Dorian Thompson-Robinson. The UCLA standout was drafted by the Browns in the fifth round of the 2023 NFL Draft and will be doing his part to usurp Joshua Dobbs and Kellen Mond in the pecking order.
Even though Mond has been named the starter, Thompson-Robinson has the most upside. The 23-year-old is expected to relieve Mond at the start of the second half, facing lesser-than-defensive players in the latter part of the game. Thompson-Robinson completed nearly 70% of his passes in his senior season as a Bruin, averaging 243.7 passing yards per game. His upside doesn’t end there, as the dual-threat pivot can get things done with his legs, torching defenders with his superior run game.
Thompson-Robinson has something to prove, and it would be unwise to underestimate him. We’re anticipating a warm welcome to the NFL as Thompson-Robinson builds his brand as a legitimate quarterback.
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John Kelly Jr.
Surely, a handful of running backs will get their shot of making an impression on Thursday night. Among those is John Kelly Jr, who remains committed to establishing himself as a quality running back in the Browns’ backfield. His best chance of moving up the depth chart comes with a strong showing, and he’s got a leg up on the competition.
Kelly Jr. has spent four seasons in the league. His most notable production came in his rookie campaign with the Los Angeles Rams, in which he toted the ball 27 times for 74 yards. Sadly, the former sixth-round pick has garnered just five carries in his three seasons since then, but the Browns are giving him an honest shot at biting off a bigger piece of the offense.
The University of Tennessee product has a championship pedigree, playing six special team snaps in Super Bowl LIII. Kelly Jr. is ready to show his best days are in front of him, and we are believers he delivers an above-average preseason performance.
Cleveland Browns Defense
There’s no telling how many starters will play or how many snaps they will be on the field for, but the Browns defense remains an imposing unit. Cleveland finished in the top half of the league in yards per game and turnover margin, positions they could improve on this upcoming season. Playing in what will feel like a home game gives them an added advantage over the Jets.
The Browns’ cause is furthered by Aaron Rodgers riding the pine. Moreover, Cleveland has a breadth of defensive talent looking to make an impression. Three of their first five players selected in the draft were defensive players, and the Browns invested heavily in all three layers this offseason. This will be a competitive group, and the battle for a starting spot has already begun.
Rodgers isn’t the only offensive starter missing the season opener. Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall, and Randall Cobb will all miss the contest, assuring the Browns start the season on a high note. That’s reflected in our projections, which rate the Browns defense as the best fantasy option available on the slate.
