Adam Levitan projects ownership for every NFL DFS player each week in the FantasyLabs Player Models. Gauging ownership is important in tournaments so you can try to gain leverage on the field. You don’t need a team of 1%-owned players to win a tournament, but it’s also unlikely you’ll win a tournament with an abundance of highly-owned players.
The goal of this article is to give a brief rundown of the players we project to be the highest owned heading into the week, along with how they can affect roster construction. And just to get you thinking about the slate and roster construction in general.
Be sure to check the ownership projections throughout the week, as breaking news can cause these to fluctuate.
Note: Ownership percentages as of Saturday morning.
Quarterbacks
As of Saturday morning, the three quarterbacks who project to see the most ownership in tournaments on both sites are Deshaun Watson, Ryan Tannehill and Patrick Mahomes. I’d expect Watson and Tannehill to catch a ton of ownership in a game that opened with a 48.5 total and has been bet up to 51.
There aren’t a ton of quarterbacks that stand out to me from a leverage standpoint, but one that has my attention is Russell Wilson, who has a top-two Leverage Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel. With everyone targeting Chris Carson and the running game, Wilson and his receivers should catch relatively low ownership.
I also think Dak Prescott is in play for tournaments in game that projects to be fast-paced. The tough matchup could depress his ownership, but Dallas and Los Angeles rank first and fourth in neutral pace this season, per Football Outsiders.
Running Backs
RB is loaded this week with Saquon Barkley, Chris Carson, Christian McCaffrey, Patrick Laird and Todd Gurley all projected for significant ownership. None of these running backs project to offer much leverage in tournaments, but it would make sense to mix in some exposure because they’re all great plays. If you’re mass-multi-entering (MME), at least being even with the field isn’t a bad strategy, unless you have some hot takes that convince you to go underweight or overweight on them.
Leonard Fournette could be a solid tournament pivot given his high workload and his incredible matchup against the Raiders. He offers more leverage on DraftKings. Ezekiel Elliott also carries a positive Leverage Plus/Minus since he has a great ceiling, but he projects for lower ownership since he’s in a tougher matchup and at a similar price point to the other running backs.
Douglas DeFelice-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Leonard Fournette.
My absolute favorite leverage play at running back is Dalvin Cook since Alexander Mattison (ankle) has been ruled out. With Mattison out, Cook has the backfield to himself against a lackluster Chargers defense. Cook carries an ownership projection of just 5-8% on both sites and could project for an easy 25-plus touch game with Mattison on the shelf. All of these high-volume backs at comparable price points are great leverage plays.
Wide Receivers
DeAndre Hopkins stands out with his 31-40% and 21-25% ownership among receivers on DraftKings and FanDuel. He draws one of the best matchups on the board against the Titans, and there’s enough value out there to easily pay up for him. Watson/Hopkins stacks brought back with A.J. Brown will probably be one of the most popular stacks on the slate.
On DraftKings, Dede Westbrook and Chris Conley look to be the most popular value receivers since they carry a 21-25% and 17-20% ownership projection. By the looks of it, opting to pay up at receiver could be way a way to make a more contrarian build since Chris Godwin, Julian Edleman and Davante Adams all have positive Leverage Plus/Minus scores. Adams is an elite tournament play with his +10.0 Leverage Plus/Minus.
Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Davante Adams
The only issue with trying to make a build with multiple expensive receivers is there are very few appealing running back values this week. Mixing in some of the expensive leverage receivers along with some of the chalkier receiver values would make the most sense. You don’t need to be contrarian everywhere to have a successful tournament lineup.
Two of my favorite leverage plays at receiver are Keenan Allen and Michael Gallup. Gallup gets the fast-paced game and has 45 targets over his last five games and won’t see shadow coverage from Jalen Ramsey. Allen draws a vulnerable Vikings secondary at an affordable price. D.J. Moore also offers leverage. I dive deeper into him in my ceiling article.
Tight Ends
On DraftKings, Ian Thomas currently projects to be the highest owned tight end which makes sense since his price has only gone up to $3,100. Overall, the top-two tight ends projected for the most ownership on both sites are Thomas and Zach Ertz. The Eagles are incredibly depleted with Nelson Agholor and Alshon Jeffery both out for this game.
There are an abundance of great tight end plays on the slate and are all in the mix to see some ownership in Travis Kelce, Tyler Higbee, George Kittle and Darren Waller. Kittle is probably my favorite leverage play which I discussed in my GPP article.
It doesn’t look like Higbee will offer much leverage this week, but a Dak/Gallup/Higbee stack is starting to find it’s way into some of my GPP builds. Higbee has been smashing with Gerald Everett (knee) out and has seen 19 targets over the last two weeks.
Defense
Defense ownership is normally site-specific. On DraftKings, the Lions project for the highest since the cost just $2,300 against a turnover-prone Bucs offense. On FanDuel, it’s the Chiefs and 49ers. For some reason, the Chiefs are just the 12th-most expensive defense on the slate on FanDuel. They’d be my preferred defense in all formats.
Pictured above: Dalvin Cook
Photo Credit: USA Today Sports
