The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: things like salary, ceiling and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our Models and take a look at some of the players with the highest ceilings, value ratings and projected ownership for the Week 9 NFL slate.
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Quarterback
Top Ceiling: Patrick Mahomes vs. CAR — $8,100 on DraftKings, $9,300 on FanDuel
Mahomes is coming off a dominant performance in his last game. He racked up 416 passing yards and five passing touchdowns vs. the Jets, resulting in 39.64 DraftKings points. That obviously wasn’t a shocking result – Mahomes is awesome, the Jets are trash – but it’s a good reminder of what Mahomes can do from a fantasy perspective in the right situation.
He’s in another awesome spot this week vs. the Carolina Panthers. They rank just 20th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA.
More importantly, Mahomes stands out from a Vegas perspective. The Chiefs are currently implied for 31.75 points, which is the top mark on the slate by a comfortable margin. Mahomes has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +7.25 on DraftKings with a comparable implied team total (per the Trends tool).
Mahomes is expensive across the industry, but it’s impossible to deny his upside.
Top Value: DeShaun Watson @ JAX — $7,100 on DraftKings, $8,300 on FanDuel
The top projected Plus/Minus at the QB position on DraftKings technically belongs to Chase Daniel, but we’re not even 100% sure if he’s going to start yet. Watson is just slightly behind Daniel in that metric, so I’ll give him the nod in this category instead.
Watson has been red-hot from a fantasy perspective recently, posting a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past four games. He’s averaged 28.98 DraftKings points per game over that time frame, and only Kyler Murray has averaged more fantasy points per game in the past month.
Watson owns one of the best possible matchups this week vs. the Jaguars, who have been an absolute dumpster fire defensively. They rank dead last in pass defense DVOA, giving Watson an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.6 on FanDuel.
The only real concern is if the Jaguars can keep this game competitive. They’re starting Jake Luton at quarterback, and the Texans have balloon to seven-point road favorites.
Top Ownership: Josh Allen vs. SEA — $7,000 on DraftKings, $8,200 on FanDuel
No quarterback is projected for more ownership on DraftKings or FanDuel than Allen, and it’s easy to see why.
He’s in a prime spot vs. the Seahawks, who have allowed fantasy points in bunches to opposing quarterbacks this season. Allen’s Opponent Plus/Minus of +9.7 is easily the top mark at the position on DraftKings.
Allen has also been priced down drastically following a string of poor recent performances. His salary got as high as $7,900 on DraftKings and $8,800 on FanDuel this season, so his current salary is reasonable across the industry.
Running Back
Top Ceiling: Dalvin Cook vs. DET — $8,200 on DraftKings, $9,300 on FanDuel
It’s hard to argue for anyone but Cook in this spot following his destruction of the Green Bay Packers last week. He finished with 163 rushing yards, 63 receiving yards, and four total touchdowns, resulting in a ridiculous 51.6 DraftKings points. The fact that he missed the Vikings’ previous contest with an injury only makes that more impressive.
He commanded an approximate ownership of around 10.5% last week on DraftKings, but don’t expect him to fly under the radar vs. the Lions. He leads the position in median, ceiling, and floor projections, and no running back is projected for greater ownership either.
The Lions have been an excellent matchup for running backs this season, giving Cook an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.1 on FanDuel, and his 13 Pro Trends are tied for the most at the position. It’s tough to find any flaws with him this week outside of his likely ownership.
Top Value: David Montgomery @ TEN — $5,700 on DraftKings, $5,900 on FanDuel
Montgomery has quietly commanded a massive workload recently. He’s logged at least 19 rushing attempts in two of his past three games, and he’s also garnered at least five targets in each of his past five. That is a lot of potential opportunities for a moderate salary, and Montgomery leads the position in projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
The only thing Montgomery hasn’t been able to do recently is fine the end zone. He has just one touchdown over his past five games even though he’s received 15 carries and four targets inside the red zone over that time frame. It’s hard to imagine him not finding the endzone if he continues to get that kind of volume around the goal line moving forward.
Regardless, Montgomery doesn’t necessarily need to find the endzone to pay off his current salary on FanDuel. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past five games but has seen virtually no increase in salary.
Top Ownership: Chase Edmonds vs. MIA — $6,800 on DraftKings, $6,700 on FanDuel
The DFS community has been dreaming of Edmonds in a feature role for quite some time, and he should finally see that opportunity this week vs. the Dolphins. Kenyan Drake has missed practice on both Wednesday and Thursday to start the week, and it seems unlikely that he’ll be able to suit up in this matchup.
Edmonds has been nothing short of dominant in a limited role recently. He’s averaged 1.40 FanDuel points per opportunity over the past month, which is one of the top marks in our NFL Models. To put that in perspective, Cook has averaged 1.48 FanDuel points per opportunity over the same time frame. Edmonds’ production is obviously over a much smaller sample size, but it goes without saying that he has a massive ceiling if he can preserve that efficiency with an increase in volume.
That said, Edmonds isn’t sneaking up on anyone this week. Expect him to be possibly the highest-owned player on the slate, particularly on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 97%.
Wide Receiver
Top Ceiling: Julio Jones vs. DEN — $7,200 on DraftKings, $8,200 on FanDuel
Jones has looked as dominant as ever recently. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus on DraftKings in each of his past three contests, and he’s averaged 7.7 catches and 123.7 receiving yards per game over that time frame. He’s also found the endzone twice, which is not always a given for Julio.
This week’s matchup vs. the Broncos sets up as a potential smash spot. For starters, Calvin Ridley has been unable to practice this week after leaving last week’s contest early with a foot injury, and it seems like he’s a long shot to suit up in Week 9. Ridley being out of the lineup would almost certainly result in more targets for Julio.
Jones also has a dream matchup. The Broncos haven’t been that bad in terms of pass defense overall – they rank 10th in DVOA – but Julio should be able to have his way vs. Michael Ojemudia. Jones plays the majority of his snaps on the left side of the formation, and Ojemudia plays exclusively on that side of the field for the Broncos. Ojemudia owns a dreadful Pro Football Focus coverage grade this season, and PFF views this is the second-largest mismatch of the week.
Top Value: Robby Anderson @ KC — $6,300 on DraftKings, $6,600 on FanDuel
Anderson leads all WRs on FanDuel in terms of projected Plus/Minus this week. He’s coming off his worst game of the season last week vs. the Falcons, finishing with just 7.3 FanDuel points, but there is still plenty of reasons for optimism. Anderson still saw eight targets in that contest, and he still finished with 33.64% of the Panthers’ air yards.
That was the first time all season that Anderson failed to post a positive Plus/Minus on FanDuel, so this seems like a solid buy-low opportunity. The Chiefs have excelled in pass coverage this season, but the game script could work in Anderson’s favor. The Panthers are currently 10.5-point underdogs, so they could have to throw the ball more than usual.
Top Ownership: Keenan Allen vs. LV — $7,000 on DraftKings, $7,400 on FanDuel
Allen continues to post one of the largest target market shares in all of football. He’s logged at least 10 targets in each game he’s finished since Justin Herbert took over at QB, and he’s seen at least 12 targets all but one of those contests. That has unsurprisingly led to a ton of fantasy success: He’s averaged 16.34 FanDuel points over his past five full games.
He should find a ton of resistance this week vs. the Raiders. They rank 27th in pass defense DVOA this season, and Allen has a massive advantage in terms of PFF grade vs. slot corner Lamarcus Joyner.
Allen is expected to carry at least 21% ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel, but he has one of the safest floors at the position for cash games.
Tight End
Top Ceiling: Travis Kelce vs. CAR — $7,200 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel
No real surprise here. Kelce leads the TE position in projected ceiling on both DraftKings and FanDuel, just like he does virtually every time he’s on the main slate. It’s not even all that close either: no one at the position is within even five points of his ceiling projection on FanDuel.
Kelce has been a particularly strong investment recently, scoring at least 22.5 DraftKings points in three of his past four games. He unsurprisingly has an excellent correlation with Mahomes, so they make for a logical stack.
That said, it should be noted that this doesn’t stand out as a great spot for Kelce. The Panthers have been good against opposing TEs this season, giving Kelce an Opponent Plus/Minus of -2.1 on DraftKings.
Top Value: Hunter Henry vs. LV — $4,000 on DraftKings, $5,600 on FanDuel
It’s hard to look past Henry at just $4,000 on DraftKings, which is simply too cheap for a player of his caliber. Henry has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.89 with a comparable price tag on DraftKings, and this represents his cheapest salary of the entire season.
This game between the Chargers and Raiders has the potential to shoot out – the total of 52.5 is the third-highest mark on the slate – and Henry is a cheap way to get some exposure to that contests. He’s also projected for just 5-8% ownership on DraftKings, so he shouldn’t be particularly chalky either.
Top Ownership: Hayden Hurst vs. DEN — $4,100 on DraftKings, $5,600 on FanDuel
Kelce should carry most of the ownership at the top of the tight end position, but Hurst looks like the potential chalk at the bottom. He’s become much more involved in the Falcons’ passing game following a slow start to the year, logging at least six targets in four of his past five games, and he’s responded with a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past three on FanDuel.
Hurst in another member of the Falcons’ passing attack who would also benefit from the absence of Ridley.
Pictured above: Chicago Bears Running Back David Montgomery (32)
Photo Credit: Robin Alam/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
