The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: things like salary, ceiling and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our Models and take a look at some of the players with the highest ceilings, value ratings and projected ownership for the Week 8 NFL slate.
New NFL DFS Trial Offer: Try our new football subscription for $4.95 and get access to our industry-leading tools and projections.
Quarterback
Top Ceiling: Russell Wilson vs. SF — $7,800 on DraftKings, $8,700 on FanDuel
Wilson was already one of the best fantasy quarterbacks over the past few seasons, but he’s taken his game to another level in 2020. The Seahawks’ coaching staff has allowed him to throw the ball at a higher frequency, and Wilson has responded with an average Plus/Minus of +12.00 on DraftKings through his first six games.
He’s in an interesting spot this week vs. the 49ers. San Francisco is known as a slow-paced, defensive team, but the total on this game still sits at 54.0 points. Seattle is currently implied for 28.5 points, which is the third-highest mark on the slate.
Additionally, the 49ers’ defense is more reputation than production at this point. It ranks just 13th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA after finishing second in that category last year. The Niners sustained a bunch of key injuries on that side of the ball, so it seems unlikely that they’ll be able to stop this explosive Seahawks’ offense.
Top Value: Jimmy Garoppolo @ SEA — $5,400 on DraftKings, $6,600 on FanDuel
On the other side of that matchup, Jimmy G looks like a steal at $5,400 on DraftKings. The Seahawks have been a fantasy goldmine for opposing offenses this season, and they have been particularly vulnerable against the pass. They rank just 30th in pass defense DVOA, giving Garoppolo an Opponent Plus/Minus of +12.0 on DraftKings. That’s the top mark at the position.
Garoppolo has struggled this season, posting a negative Plus/Minus in three of his first five games, but comparable QBs have historically been solid values. Quarterbacks with a price tag between $4,900 and $5,900 have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.17 in games with similar Vegas data (per the Trends tool).
Top Ownership: Ryan Tannehill @ CIN — $6,800 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel
Four quarterbacks are projected for 9-12% ownership on DraftKings, and those quarterbacks play in just two different games. Wilson and Garoppolo are expected to be popular in their matchup, and Tannehill and Joe Burrow are expected to be popular in theirs.
Burrow is coming off a monster performance in his last game, but I’ll give the slight edge to Tannehill between the two. The Titans are road favorites – giving them the superior implied team total – and the spread has risen from Titans -3.5 to Titans -6.0. That’s a strong indicator that the sharp bettors are expecting the Titans to perform well in this matchup.
The Bengals also represent an excellent matchup for quarterbacks. They rank just 29th in pass defense DVOA, giving Tannehill an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.7 on FanDuel. He also stands out as one of the best pure values on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 99%.
Running Back
Top Ceiling: Derrick Henry @ CIN — $8,000 on DraftKings, $9,500 on FanDuel
Henry is coming off an unusually quiet performance last week, but this sets up as an absolute smash spot for him. The Bengals have struggled defending the run in addition to defending the pass, and they have already surrendered some massive performances on the ground this season. Four of their first seven opponents have tallied at least 155 rushing yards.
No one in football has a higher ceiling as a rusher than Henry. He’s logged three games with at least 200 rushing yards since 2018, and the rest of the NFL has just three such games combined. Henry also has as much scoring upside as anyone in football: His seven rushing touchdowns were tied for the most in the league heading into Week 8.
Top Value: Carlos Hyde @ SEA — $5,300 on DraftKings, $5,000 on FanDuel
The Seahawks have the potential to be shorthanded in their backfield this week. Chris Carson and Travis Homer have been unable to practice this week, and both are tentatively expected to be inactive vs. the 49ers.
Hyde has also missed practice the past two days, but it seems like he has a better shot of being able to suit up. If he does, he’s in a position to carry the workload for the Seahawks, just like he did after Carson got hurt vs. the Cardinals last week. Overall, he leads the position in projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel in our NFL Models.
His matchup vs. the 49ers isn’t great – he owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of just -1.7 on FanDuel – but volume is ultimately king at the position. Running backs in comparable situations to Hyde have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.58 on FanDuel.
If Hyde is unable to go, expect DeeJay Dallas to become one of the top value plays on the slate.
Top Ownership: Alvin Kamara @ CHI — $8,200 on DraftKings, $9,000 on FanDuel
The majority of the ownership at the running back position should be pretty concentrated this week. Henry should garner a fair bit of ownership among the high-priced options, while guys like Jamaal Williams and Gio Bernard should command plenty of ownership if they start for the second straight week. That said, Kamara still stands out as the player who could command the most ownership at the position.
His workload is pretty much unmatched among other running backs at the moment. He logged 14 carries last week vs. the Panthers and also saw eight targets in the passing game. He’s now logged at least eight targets in five of his first six games.
Kamara could be looking at even more targets than usual this week given the current status of the Saints’ receiving corps. Michael Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, and Marquez Callaway are all dealing with injuries/illnesses at the moment, so they could be extremely thin in that department.
Wide Receiver
Top Ceiling: Davante Adams vs. MIN — $8,800 on DraftKings, $9,100 on FanDuel
Adams has the top ceiling among wide receivers this week, and frankly it’s not even that close. He’s coming off a monster performance last week, finishing with 47.6 DraftKings points thanks to 16 targets, 13 catches, 196 yards, and two touchdowns. Adams has now seen at least 10 targets in the past eight games that he’s finished dating back to 2019. That includes Week 1 of this season vs. the Vikings, where he racked up 44.6 DraftKings points.
Adams should continue to be an absolute target monster, and his workload only figures to increase if Aaron Jones is unable to suit up. The Packers are already down Allan Lazard, so Jones being out of the lineup would leave Adams as their only reliable offensive weapon.
Top Value: Keenan Allen @ DEN — $6,200 on DraftKings, $7,400 on FanDuel
This price is simply way too low for Allen on DraftKings, who has easily been Justin Herbert’s favorite target. Herbert took over for the Chargers in Week 2, and Allen has seen double-digit targets in four of five games with Herbert at quarterback. The only exception was Week 5 vs. the Saints, and Allen left that game with an injury. Overall, Allen has recorded at least seven catches and at least 62 yards in all four games that he’s finished with Herbert under center.
His matchup vs. the Broncos isn’t ideal, but it still results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.9 on DraftKings. Allen also has a slight edge in his individual matchup vs. Bryce Callahan according to Pro Football Focus.
Top Ownership: Tyler Lockett vs. SF — $7,100 on DraftKings, $7,200 on FanDuel
If someone goes off for 56.0 DraftKings points in a primetime game, you can expect them to be pretty chalky the following week. That’s exactly the case with Lockett. He’s coming off a ridiculous 20-target, 15-catch performance in his last game, and he also racked up 200 yards and three touchdowns.
The increased ownership could make Lockett a nice fade candidate this week, but he still seems underpriced on FanDuel. His current price tag results in a Bargain Rating of 96%, and he leads the position with 10 Pro Trends.
Tight End
Top Ceiling: George Kittle @ SEA — $7,000 on DraftKings, $7,700 on FanDuel
Kittle got off to a slow start this season, but he has been bounced back in a big way recently. He’s scored at least 20.4 FanDuel points in two of his past four games, and he’s logged at least seven targets in each of them.
He stands out as the 49ers’ top pass catching option in an elite matchup, particularly with Deebo Samuel out of the lineup. Seattle hasn’t been as bad against TEs as they have been against WRs – they rank 14th in DVOA vs. the position – but Kittle isn’t your average tight end. He’s a particularly strong target on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 96%.
Top Value: Darren Waller @ CLE — $5,600 on DraftKings, $6,800 on FanDuel
Waller has scored a touchdown in back-to-back weeks, yet his salary has actually dropped by $500 on DraftKings over that time frame. That doesn’t make much sense to me.
Waller has also commanded a Kittle-like number of targets recently. He’s received at least seven targets in all but one game this season, and he’s had at least nine targets in three of his past five games. That’s excellent volume considering his price tag on DraftKings.
Waller also has a solid matchup vs. the Browns, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.2.
Top Ownership: Trey Burton @ DET — $3,500 on DraftKings, $5,300 on FanDuel
Kittle and Waller should both command solid ownership at the top of the pricing spectrum, but Burton looks like one of the most popular options at the bottom. He has emerged as the clear No. 1 tight end for the Colts, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus on DraftKings in each of his past two games. His snap percentage doesn’t stand out – he played on just 56% of the Colts’ offensive snaps in their last game – but he was highly involved when he was on the field. He ran a route on 23 of his 35 snaps and finished with five targets.
The Colts also deployed Burton as a Wildcat quarterback in the red zone in their last game, which only increases his fantasy appeal. There’s no guarantee that the Colts will go to that formation again, but there are very few TEs who have the potential to score on the ground and through the air.
Pictured above: Derrick Henry #22 of the Tennessee Titans
Photo credit: Stephen Maturen/Getty Images
